optionman's Account Talk

[optionman]

TSP & ETF Update

Stock funds signal changed to a sell today.

TSP: YTD Return +7.26%

Signals:

Stock funds: Sell, signal date 14 Apr 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.

Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 14 Apr 08.


ETF: YTD Return -5.65% (since tracking began 8 April 08)

Position: Short Q’s on 14 Apr 08 for $44.10, Stop = $45.13 (just above the high Friday. This stop is active in my account so if Q’s hits it, it will stop me out of the position).

optionman

 

[mojo]

I'm following you back to G.

 

[optionman]

I'm following you back to G.

mojo--I didn't look at recent IFTs but hope you made your move yesterday, it was a good day for a move. My signals for stock funds and the bond fund remain on a sell. I remain 100% G fund. Thanks for staying tuned.

optionman

 

[optionman]

TSP & ETF Update

TSP: YTD +7.34%

Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 14 Apr 08.

ETF: YTD -5.79%

Position: Short Q’s on 14 Apr for $44.10, Stop = $45.13.

optionman

 

[SteveTSP]

Optionman,
Thanks for posting your positions and IFTs. I decided a month ago to follow your actions (similar to mojo's plan) but have been out of sync. During that time, I have tried several IFTs with poor results trying for a quick fix. I should have just bit the bullet and pass on trying to recovering the 3% and join your track, instead I missed the upswing in the S while trying to avoid more negative returns. I really appreciate your posts and positions even though I have not followed them. As usual, I am too impatient but trying to do better at that. I spent many (all of TSP existence) years with only one allocation adjustment. Just as I get involved the board is trying to limit IFTs based on some twisted facts and figures. However, that might be better for me but preferred to NO limits since we have already paid twice to obtain a system to accomplish that. No one has mentioned the reprogramming costs as an offset to the increase trading costs. Anyway, I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciated your thoughts and wanted to say congratulations to your performance so far. Hope to jump on your tails in the next few weeks.
Steve

 

[optionman]

Optionman,
Thanks for posting your positions and IFTs. I decided a month ago to follow your actions (similar to mojo's plan) but have been out of sync. During that time, I have tried several IFTs with poor results trying for a quick fix. I should have just bit the bullet and pass on trying to recovering the 3% and join your track, instead I missed the upswing in the S while trying to avoid more negative returns. I really appreciate your posts and positions even though I have not followed them. As usual, I am too impatient but trying to do better at that. I spent many (all of TSP existence) years with only one allocation adjustment. Just as I get involved the board is trying to limit IFTs based on some twisted facts and figures. However, that might be better for me but preferred to NO limits since we have already paid twice to obtain a system to accomplish that. No one has mentioned the reprogramming costs as an offset to the increase trading costs. Anyway, I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciated your thoughts and wanted to say congratulations to your performance so far. Hope to jump on your tails in the next few weeks.
Steve

Steve--Thanks for the comments and for staying tuned. My signals for stocks and bonds remain on a sell and I remain in the G fund.

optionman

 

[optionman]

TSP & ETF Update

TSP: YTD +7.34%

Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 14 Apr 08.

ETF: YTD -8.03%

Position: Stopped out for $45.13, no open positions.

Next update will be when I get a signal change, do an IFT, or enter an ETF position.

optionman

 

[mojo]

I've done pretty much the same Steve wanting to get optionmans results but trying for a little more and losing because of lack of discipline. I still may allow myself to get in or out a day or two later and maybe alocate a little differently but I'm definately going to continue monitoring and using optionmans buy/sell signals.

Thanks again for your concise knowledgable input optionman.

Optionman,
Thanks for posting your positions and IFTs. I decided a month ago to follow your actions (similar to mojo's plan) but have been out of sync. During that time, I have tried several IFTs with poor results trying for a quick fix. I should have just bit the bullet and pass on trying to recovering the 3% and join your track, instead I missed the upswing in the S while trying to avoi more negative returns. I really appreciate your posts and positions even though I have not followed them. As usual, I am too impatient but trying to do better at that. I spent many (all of TSP existence) years with only one allocation adjustment. Just as I get involved the board is trying to limit IFTs based on some twisted facts and figures. However, that might be better for me but preferred to NO limits since we have already paid twice to obtain a system to accomplish that. No one has mentioned the reprogramming costs as an offset to the increase trading costs. Anyway, I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciated your thoughts and wanted to say congratulations to your performance so far. Hope to jump on your tails in the next few weeks.
Steve

 

[optionman]

ETF Entry

TSP: YTD +7.34%

Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 14 Apr 08.

ETF: YTD -8.03%

Q’s price surged to $45.96 or 1.52% after hours. I expect a strong gap up open today, but I remain bearish on the Q’s and believe we will soon see a sell off so I’m placing a one-triggers-other (OTO) order to sell short Q’s for $46.20, with a buy to cover (BTC) stop of $47.10 (using this type of order if the sell short order executes a stop will be automatically be placed for $47.10).

Not sure if this order will execute since I am shooting a little high, but if it doesn’t, no big deal, I’ll look to enter next Monday or Tuesday.

Position: None

optionman

 

[optionman]

Canceled ETF order

With the futures up strong today and the possibility of a short squeeze pushing the market up I decided to cancel my ETF order. I don't like entering the market when futures are at extremes so I'll wait until next week and let things shake out a bit.

optionman

 

[optionman]

Weekly Update

TSP: YTD +7.34% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 14 Apr 08.

Comment/Action: My stock fund signals remain on a sell and my market analysis suggests we will see a pullback from here. If the SPX pulls back, but can remain above its 1375-1350 support that would be a good sign and would probably lead to a stock fund buy signal soon. My bond fund signal remains on a sell. At this point I’m in the wait and see mode. I remain 100% G fund.

ETF: YTD -8.77% Position: Short Q’s at $46.37, Stop $47.27

Comment/Action: I canceled my order Friday before the market open since futures were extremely strong and as I mentioned in my post I don’t normally take trades when futures are at extremes. However, I decided to go ahead and take the trade a few minutes after the market opened since the market was already up strong for the week and it wasn’t likely to move up to far after a gap open like it had. As mentioned in my TSP comments above my market analysis suggests we will see a sell off from this point, the question is how much of a sell off. If recent support at 45-44 on the Q’s holds it will likely present a good opportunity to reverse my position and go long, if not, I’ll hold the short position, that is, if the Q’s don’t move up and stop me out.

Bottom Line: A strong break above 1400 on the SPX will likely be met with a short squeeze forcing the shorts to buy back their positions and propelling the market even higher, but there’s a stronger probability that we’ll see a pullback before that happens. The markets are now in a position where they must prove themselves. We want to see the resistance that was broken through become support and see that support hold during pullbacks. If it doesn’t, look out below.

optionman

 

[Birchtree]

The SPX 200 EMA is at 1408.33 - we'll rocket through this like a venturi effect and pull in mounds of joy. Everyone wants a pause to refresh and load up - but it may not come with all the joy that is on the sidelines. This bull doesn't want riders - not until much later.

 

[Uptrend]

The SPX 200 EMA is at 1408.33 - we'll rocket through this like a venturi effect and pull in mounds of joy. Everyone wants a pause to refresh and load up - but it may not come with all the joy that is on the sidelines. This bull doesn't want riders - not until much later.

Huh? Spoken like an eternal optimist. Don't think so. The market is extremely overbought at this point. The bar on expectations is rising. So, there is more reason to think a pullback will occur next week rather than a continuation.

 

[optionman]

Weekly Update

TSP: YTD +7.43% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 14 Apr 08.

Comment/Action: My stock fund signals moved to neutral on 24 Apr. Longer term chart patterns and indications on the SPX are bullish, but short term the market is overbought and may pullback. If it pulls back, but remains above its 1350 support it would be healthy for the market and the classic higher highs/higher lows bullish pattern and up trend that started in mid March would remain intact, if it falls below 1350 it could spell trouble. My bond fund signal remains on a sell. I remain 100% G fund.

ETF: YTD -9.72% Position: Short Q’s at $46.37, Stop $47.27

Comment/Action: I’m short the Qs and expect a pull back. With the futures opening so high the last few days and my expectation that the market would close lower I canceled my stop so as not to get whipsawed out of the position.

Bottom Line: The markets remain in a position where they must prove themselves. They could still swing either way. A strong break above the 1400-1410 resistance on the SPX will likely be met with a short squeeze forcing the shorts to buy to cover their positions and propelling the market even higher, but there’s a stronger probability that we’ll see a pullback before that happens. If SPX pulls back as expected we want to see support at 1360-1350 hold, if it does and the market begins rallying off that level it will probably present a good entry point, but if it doesn’t, look out below.

Next update will be next weekend unless I make an IFT or close my ETF position.

optionman

 

[jlpost]

optionman,
Thanks for the update!

 

[jlpost]

Hey optionman,

You may be considering this already...but its worth mentioning.

If your early indications are to move to stocks the begining of May and the indications are strong enough, then it might be wise to make that move before May 1. This way your
1st IFT of May would be to G (if you have a move),
2nd IFT would be back to stocks (if you have a second),
and so you could get a 3rd to G.

If you start May in G but IFT to stocks on say May 1, then you just used your 1st IFT for May. So when you IFT to G, thats your 2nd IFT and your done for the month.

jlpost

 

[optionman]

Hey optionman,

You may be considering this already...but its worth mentioning.

If your early indications are to move to stocks the begining of May and the indications are strong enough, then it might be wise to make that move before May 1. This way your
1st IFT of May would be to G (if you have a move),
2nd IFT would be back to stocks (if you have a second),
and so you could get a 3rd to G.

If you start May in G but IFT to stocks on say May 1, then you just used your 1st IFT for May. So when you IFT to G, thats your 2nd IFT and your done for the month.

jlpost

jl--Thanks for the comments! I do keep the 2 IFT limit rule in mind and believe my system will do very well within the limits. On average I get a signal every 6 weeks or so, but with the recent volatility I've been getting more than the average number of signals. Thanks for staying tuned.

optionman

 

[Guest2]

Hey optionman,You may be considering this already...but its worth mentioning. If your early indications are to move to stocks the begining of May and the indications are strong enough, then it might be wise to make that move before May 1. This way your 1st IFT of May would be to G (if you have a move), 2nd IFT would be back to stocks (if you have a second), and so you could get a 3rd to G.

If you start May in G but IFT to stocks on say May 1, then you just used your 1st IFT for May. So when you IFT to G, thats your 2nd IFT and your done for the month.jlpost

Why do I get this funny feeling that if your 1st move is back to the (G), it would count towards your 2 move limit. Once the 2 move limit is reached, then, you go back to the (G) as many time as you want thereafter.

It's not as clear as it should be, is it. I'm sure someone will try it that way and let us know, one way or another.

 

[optionman]

Why do I get this funny feeling that if your 1st move is back to the (G), it would count towards your 2 move limit. Once the 2 move limit is reached, then, you go back to the (G) as many time as you want thereafter.

It's not as clear as it should be, is it. I'm sure someone will try it that way and let us know, one way or another.

squalebear,

You're right the 2 IFT limit applies to all funds including the G fund. The unrestricted part comes in if you happen to be in a fund other than the G fund on your second IFT and decide to move all or part of your money to the G fund for safety.

When the limits were first published I thought the rules were somewhat ambigous too and researched this. I found a document on the TSP site that lays it out. If you search around the site you will probably find it pretty quickly. Good luck and thanks for staying tuned.

optionman

 

[Braveheart]

squalebear,

You're right the 2 IFT limit applies to all funds including the G fund. The unrestricted part comes in if you happen to be in a fund other than the G fund on your second IFT and decide to move all or part of your money to the G fund for safety.

When the limits were first published I thought the rules were somewhat ambigous too and researched this. I found a document on the TSP site that lays it out. If you search around the site you will probably find it pretty quickly. Good luck and thanks for staying tuned.

optionman

The way I see it POSSIBLE since wording isn't 100% clear loop hole

is say you are 40% C Fund 40% S Fund 20 % I Fund

the way around the rule is 1st IFT 50% C Fund 50% S Fund

2nd IFT -- 10% G Fund 50% C Fund 40% S Fund

3rd IFT -- 20% G Fund 40% C Fund 40% S Fund

4th IFT -- 30% G Fund etc. etc.