optionman's Account Talk

[optionman]

Bond Fund Update

I made an IFT to 100% F fund yesterday in anticipation of a bullish chart set up moving my bond fund signal to a buy. We had a fairly strong sell off in bonds instead, but I believe they are at or near a bottom and the bullish set up still exists so I’ll remain in the F fund for now and see if my signal moves to a buy as expected in the next few days. If they continue to move lower or the set up fades I’ll consider abandoning the position.

Signals:

Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell,signal date 11 March 08. (bullish chart set up, expect signal to move to a buy)

Positions:

100% F fund as of 11 March 08.

Stops:

AGG close below 101.00 and/or F fund below $11.77

Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman

“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”

Ed Seykota

 

[mojo]

Nice entry point into F. Thanks.

 

[optionman]

Signal Change

Bond fund signal moved to a buy today.

Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Buy, signal date 12 March 08.

100% F fund as of 11 March 08.

Note: This IFT was made prior to my bond fund signal moving to a buy in anticipation of the move based on a bullish chart set-up.

Stops: AGG close below 101.00 and/or F fund below $11.77

Follow the money or follow the herd!

optionman

“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”

Ed Seykota

 

[optionman]

Ift

My stock fund signals moved to a buy today so I’m moving from 100% F fund to 100% S fund.

My bond fund signal remains on a buy, but is weakening.

Stock funds: Buy,signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Buy, signal date 12 March 08.

Moving to 100% S fund effective 20 Mar 08.

optionman

 

[jlpost]

Hi optionman,
I recently started watching your system, but haven't heard from you for a week...you still around? Still in S?
You sure had great timing moving there! See any change coming?

Thanks!

 

[optionman]

Hi optionman,
I recently started watching your system, but haven't heard from you for a week...you still around? Still in S?
You sure had great timing moving there! See any change coming?

Thanks!

jlpost,

Yes I'm still around and thanks. I check in just about daily to see what's going on on the MB but I normally only post when I make an IFT, one of my signals change or something significant happens. I'll be posting a quarterly review of my account next week after the 31st of Mar. I am still 100% S fund and unless SPX begins closing below 1325 I plan to remain in it. Watch for my quarterly account review next week with IFT limit comments and market comments. I may post before then with a signal change if it happens. Bonds are look very weak here and could move to a sell as early as today. Thanks for staying tuned and good luck.

optionman

 

[optionman]

Quarterly TSP Review

1 January – 31 March Actual P/L + 6.30% (autotracker + 4.69%)

For those wondering why I’m showing + 6.30% and autotracker is only showing + 4.69%, I was in the F fund from 31 Dec 07 through 15 Jan 08 (+ 1.59%), then G fund from 15-17 Jan (0%). Autotracker began tracking my account on 17 Jan. For those who say we only count autotracker, please feel free to do so. I'm posting my actual results for those who would like to know.

Number of IFTs by month:

January –3
February –2
March –3

IFT Limit Note: If the proposed IFT limits become effective in April or May I believe my signals will do well within the limits and although I haven’t gotten a letter, in April I’ll begin trading as if the limits were imposed. I sent in my letter of dissention, hope all of you did as well. Not sure that it will help much, but if we can at least get a compromise it will be worth it.

Market Comments:

I’m going against the crowd at this point. I’m bullish on the market. IMO we’re witnessing a market reversal that began on March 20th.. SPX has moved up through a significant resistance level at 1325. It fell back through it to 1315 last Friday and was not able to move back above it Monday and that is a concern. If it doesn’t close back above it in the next day or so I may change my market posture but for now I expect it to challenge and overcome upper resistance at1350, then 1375-80 soon. As it overcomes these levels we should see pullbacks to support areas and or short term moving averages which is healthy for the market as it moves up. If it continues closing below 1325 I may have to step aside, but will base that decision on my signal at that time if it happens.

Signals:

Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Buy, signal date 12 March 08. (looks ready to move to a sell any day)

Fund Specific:

C fund: Looks good here
S fund: Looks good here, IMO will S will outperform C in the short term while C will become stronger later
I fund: I would not be in the I fund. It looks sexy here, but will likely remain volatile with strong moves in both directions so I’ll stick with S for now as it is a bit more stable
F fund: Very close to a sell here and will likely give a sell signal in the next day or so

TSP Position/Allocation:

100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08 and plan on homesteading here for a while unless something significant changes.

For my current standing, position allocation and number of IFTs keep an eye on the member standing page on autotracker For a more accurate measure add +1.59% to it for 2008.

I will continue to post all signal changes and IFTs I make and may soon begin posting my extremely short term (1-5 day) ETF trades as well.

optionman

 

[jlpost]

Optionman, Thanks for the quarterly update!

 

[Asylum]

Re: Quarterly TSP Review

Market Comments:

I’m going against the crowd at this point. I’m bullish on the market. IMO we’re witnessing a market reversal that began on March 20th.. SPX has moved up through a significant resistance level at 1325. It fell back through it to 1315 last Friday and was not able to move back above it Monday and that is a concern. If it doesn’t close back above it in the next day or so I may change my market posture but for now I expect it to challenge and overcome upper resistance at1350, then 1375-80 soon. As it overcomes these levels we should see pullbacks to support areas and or short term moving averages which is healthy for the market as it moves up. If it continues closing below 1325 I may have to step aside, but will base that decision on my signal at that time if it happens.


optionman

I was chatting about this to a fellow investor and his opinion is that there won't be the true bottom until there is a point where panicky investors pull EVERYTHING out and run for the hills.

He speculates that as long as there is an optimistic attitude, there's never going to be the big sell-off that's necessary to shake out the casual investors, get stocks cheap based on their value (and not just on past prices), and work at going back up again.

He's basing that off of past market declines he's seen, but, in the end, no one knows what will happen, otherwise we'd all be rich!

 

[Bullitt]

Hey Optionman,

How about the ISEE Index today? Started the day around 79 and ended around 75. I'm taking this as a bullish sign in equities as retail investors are probably sticking with short and commodity strategies. Any thoughts?

 

[Braveheart]

jlpost,

Yes I'm still around and thanks. I check in just about daily to see what's going on on the MB but I normally only post when I make an IFT, one of my signals change or something significant happens. I'll be posting a quarterly review of my account next week after the 31st of Mar. I am still 100% S fund and unless SPX begins closing below 1325 I plan to remain in it. Watch for my quarterly account review next week with IFT limit comments and market comments. I may post before then with a signal change if it happens. Bonds are look very weak here and could move to a sell as early as today. Thanks for staying tuned and good luck.

optionman

I am 50% C & 50% S - I was thnking of moving tomorrow back to 75% G & 25% S thoughts. I see a selloff Thursday.

 

[Asylum]

I am 50% C & 50% S - I was thnking of moving tomorrow back to 75% G & 25% S thoughts. I see a selloff Thursday.

i am thinking the same.. yet want to stay within the 2 moves per month requirement..

 

[Braveheart]

i am thinking the same.. yet want to stay within the 2 moves per month requirement..

It is a tough call but the jump reminds me of the 400 point gain only to see it crash. There is so much bad news out there I can't believe this was a pump to draw in the sheep and dump leaving them hanging. If that would hold true the F Fund might be a better play than the G.

 

[Asylum]

It is a tough call but the jump reminds me of the 400 point gain only to see it crash. There is so much bad news out there I can't believe this was a pump to draw in the sheep and dump leaving them hanging. If that would hold true the F Fund might be a better play than the G.

i cant shake the feeling that things are going to get worse before they improve for long-term good...

just read the top stories on the Yahoo! Finance page:

http://biz.yahoo.com/top.html

F is probably a good place to hang out and see what happens.

 

[Braveheart]

i cant shake the feeling that things are going to get worse before they improve for long-term good...

just read the top stories on the Yahoo! Finance page:

http://biz.yahoo.com/top.html

F is probably a good place to hang out and see what happens.

I just hope it holds tomorrow we will know early on and then if it's up big I will surely move right to the F Fund and it will be at a good price.

 

[optionman]

Hey Optionman,

How about the ISEE Index today? Started the day around 79 and ended around 75. I'm taking this as a bullish sign in equities as retail investors are probably sticking with short and commodity strategies. Any thoughts?

Bullit--Thanks for asking. I don't monitor the ISEE Index.

optionman

 

[optionman]

I am 50% C & 50% S - I was thnking of moving tomorrow back to 75% G & 25% S thoughts. I see a selloff Thursday.

Braveheart--One thing to keep in mind these days is the IFT limits that will likely be imposed upon us soon. I am 100% S now and will hold unless there's a good reason to back out. Rather than anticipating a sell off I'll wait to see if one materializes, then if it doesn't I'm fine, if it does I'll decide at that point whether moving is the best. Good luck!

optionman

 

[optionman]

Signal Update

Just a quick signal update for those monitoring this thread. I mentioned in my quarterly update yesterday that I expected my bond fund signal to move to a sell any day. It moved to a sell yesterday.

Signals:

Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.

optionman

 

[optionman]

Re: Signal Update

Just a quick signal update for those monitoring this thread. I mentioned in my quarterly update yesterday that I expected my bond fund signal to move to a sell any day. It moved to a sell yesterday.

Signals:

Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.

optionman

To clarify, the signal moved to a sell as of the close on Tuesday, 1 Apr 08.

 

[airlift]

Thanks!