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optionman's Account Talk
- Thread starter optionman
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Dan--Thanks for asking. Sorry I don't have a website and since my signal system is a propriety system I don't discuss it, but I believe it will continue to prove itself. Thanks again for staying tuned.
optionman
Braveheart
Member
Optionman
Would you bail right now to G or F or hold as I am in the S and C ? Or better yet move to 100% S Fund
THX - Braveheart
Would you bail right now to G or F or hold as I am in the S and C ? Or better yet move to 100% S Fund
THX - Braveheart
Braveheart---I would hold. I remain 100% S fund in my TSP account, but believe an allocation between C and S will do well also.
optionman
Braveheart
Member
Braveheart---I would hold. I remain 100% S fund in my TSP account, but believe an allocation between C and S will do well also.
optionman
I stayed 50% C Fund and 50% S Fund - THX after watching the ups and downs today it appears most of the bad information is already priced in. If we do get a predictable report tomorrow it should not have any impact except for profit taking. If the report is better than expected (which I doubt) well it would be a nice gain. If the report is really bad well it clearly would be a sell off. I am going with Predictable report and no impact.
Braveheart
Member
Re: Signal Update
I don't know what your signals are but I went 100% G Fund for Monday 4/7/08. The reports today were bad so if we get a selloff I will be OK but after watching this new type of market it appears the S Fund is a much better play now than the C Fund even at the price. THX for your help - Braveheart
Just a quick signal update for those monitoring this thread. I mentioned in my quarterly update yesterday that I expected my bond fund signal to move to a sell any day. It moved to a sell yesterday.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
optionman
I don't know what your signals are but I went 100% G Fund for Monday 4/7/08. The reports today were bad so if we get a selloff I will be OK but after watching this new type of market it appears the S Fund is a much better play now than the C Fund even at the price. THX for your help - Braveheart
Long Term ETF Trades
In my quarterly TSP account review I mentioned that I may begin posting my short term ETF trades.
Since I trade primarily option strategies hence the handle “optionman” and occasionally ETFs on a short term basis I’ve decided not to post those trades. However since I would like to show those interested how well my signal system performs on ETFs I’ll begin posting trades that I would be in if I were not trading options.
Again I’m not actually in the ETF trades only because I actively trade options and am normally in some sort of option strategy.
My trades will concentrate on SSO and QLD both are ultralong ETFs. SSO is based on the performance of the SPX and QLD the performance of the Q’s. I will trade both long and short depending on the markets. I generally don’t trade the ultrashort ETFs (SDS and QID) because they don’t perform as well as the ultralongs. For those who would like to prove this to yourself look at the last major up or down move and compare SSO to SDS and QLD to QID. You will note the ultralong funds perform much better in both directions.
I will post the ETF, entry date, price, stop, exit date, profit/loss, etc. You will be able to monitor the trades from beginning to end to see if my system is of interest. For now I recommend just watching the results.
Getting started: Since I would be long QLD on 20 March (the same day I moved to 100% S fund) but didn’t post the trade then, I'll wait for the next entry.
I expect one of two things to happen in the next today. One we get a strong up day and close near the next resistance level at 1400 on the SPX then pullback tomorrow to support at 1375-1350 or two we get a down move that stops at 1350 support and then moves higher challenging the 1400 area.
In either case I'll be looking at the pullback as an entry point into an ETF position and post it here for you to follow. Stay tuned, I expect an entry in the next few days.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08.
optionman
In my quarterly TSP account review I mentioned that I may begin posting my short term ETF trades.
Since I trade primarily option strategies hence the handle “optionman” and occasionally ETFs on a short term basis I’ve decided not to post those trades. However since I would like to show those interested how well my signal system performs on ETFs I’ll begin posting trades that I would be in if I were not trading options.
Again I’m not actually in the ETF trades only because I actively trade options and am normally in some sort of option strategy.
My trades will concentrate on SSO and QLD both are ultralong ETFs. SSO is based on the performance of the SPX and QLD the performance of the Q’s. I will trade both long and short depending on the markets. I generally don’t trade the ultrashort ETFs (SDS and QID) because they don’t perform as well as the ultralongs. For those who would like to prove this to yourself look at the last major up or down move and compare SSO to SDS and QLD to QID. You will note the ultralong funds perform much better in both directions.
I will post the ETF, entry date, price, stop, exit date, profit/loss, etc. You will be able to monitor the trades from beginning to end to see if my system is of interest. For now I recommend just watching the results.
Getting started: Since I would be long QLD on 20 March (the same day I moved to 100% S fund) but didn’t post the trade then, I'll wait for the next entry.
I expect one of two things to happen in the next today. One we get a strong up day and close near the next resistance level at 1400 on the SPX then pullback tomorrow to support at 1375-1350 or two we get a down move that stops at 1350 support and then moves higher challenging the 1400 area.
In either case I'll be looking at the pullback as an entry point into an ETF position and post it here for you to follow. Stay tuned, I expect an entry in the next few days.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08.
optionman
Re: Long Term ETF Trades
optionman,
I'll be watching and learning. I appreciate what you are offering. The transparency of your trades will help people like me to understand the pros and cons as well as to measure the level of risk/involvement of choice. Of course, as a beginner I would prefer to follow you in the simple trades in order to grasp the subject and succeed in this.
optionman,
I'll be watching and learning. I appreciate what you are offering. The transparency of your trades will help people like me to understand the pros and cons as well as to measure the level of risk/involvement of choice. Of course, as a beginner I would prefer to follow you in the simple trades in order to grasp the subject and succeed in this.
In my quarterly TSP account review I mentioned that I may begin posting my short term ETF trades.
Since I trade primarily option strategies hence the handle “optionman” and occasionally ETFs on a short term basis I’ve decided not to post those trades. However since I would like to show those interested how well my signal system performs on ETFs I’ll begin posting trades that I would be in if I were not trading options.
Again I’m not actually in the ETF trades only because I actively trade options and am normally in some sort of option strategy.
My trades will concentrate on SSO and QLD both are ultralong ETFs. SSO is based on the performance of the SPX and QLD the performance of the Q’s. I will trade both long and short depending on the markets. I generally don’t trade the ultrashort ETFs (SDS and QID) because they don’t perform as well as the ultralongs. For those who would like to prove this to yourself look at the last major up or down move and compare SSO to SDS and QLD to QID. You will note the ultralong funds perform much better in both directions.
I will post the ETF, entry date, price, stop, exit date, profit/loss, etc. You will be able to monitor the trades from beginning to end to see if my system is of interest. For now I recommend just watching the results.
Getting started: Since I would be long QLD on 20 March (the same day I moved to 100% S fund) but didn’t post the trade then, I'll wait for the next entry.
I expect one of two things to happen in the next today. One we get a strong up day and close near the next resistance level at 1400 on the SPX then pullback tomorrow to support at 1375-1350 or two we get a down move that stops at 1350 support and then moves higher challenging the 1400 area.
In either case I'll be looking at the pullback as an entry point into an ETF position and post it here for you to follow. Stay tuned, I expect an entry in the next few days.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08.
optionman
Up or Down?
The market is poised for a move out of its tight range. Unfortunately it’s difficult to tell which way it will be. It could certainly blast off higher from here and if it does it will likely be a strong move up probably challenging the SPX 1400 resistance, the bulls are very strong at this point, but it could also pull back. If it pulls back I expect it will be a minor pullback and be contained at the SPX 1350 support area.
I continue to wait for an entry point into an ETF position. If we blast off higher I’ll wait for a pullback, if we pullback today I may enter near the close depending on where the market is at that point.
I plan to buy QLD as my ETF of choice. I’ll post my entry here for those interested.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08.
ETF:
Waiting for an entry point
optionman
The market is poised for a move out of its tight range. Unfortunately it’s difficult to tell which way it will be. It could certainly blast off higher from here and if it does it will likely be a strong move up probably challenging the SPX 1400 resistance, the bulls are very strong at this point, but it could also pull back. If it pulls back I expect it will be a minor pullback and be contained at the SPX 1350 support area.
I continue to wait for an entry point into an ETF position. If we blast off higher I’ll wait for a pullback, if we pullback today I may enter near the close depending on where the market is at that point.
I plan to buy QLD as my ETF of choice. I’ll post my entry here for those interested.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08.
ETF:
Waiting for an entry point
optionman
Check out your account thread:cheesy:
ETF Entry Point
I remain bullish on the market. I mentioned in my post yesterday that I may enter an ETF position today near the close depending on how the markets looked. They looked good for an entry so I bought QLD at $75.29 about an hour before the close. I had a little money left after entering an option position so I actually bought a couple of shares. I find it much more interesting if money is actually on the line vs. paper trading. Anyone can look at a chart and say I would have entered at this point and got out there, but for those who trade outside their TSP accounts, they know it’s a bit different when money is on the line and you’re watching hard right edge of the chart.
SPX is still in a tight range and will likely break out today or tomorrow. The bulls remain strong here, not giving up much ground. It could pull back a bit more to 1350 and still be in good shape to launch an assault on its next resistance in the1400 area or it could launch from here, hard to tell. Once it gets just above 1400 we may see a short squeeze causing more up volume.
For those not familiar with the term short squeeze, it’s when traders sell the markets short and then buy back their shorts or get stopped out if the market moves up rather than down. As an example one may sell short a stock at $50.00 per share hoping it falls to $45.00, if he’s right, he buys it back keeping the difference as his profit. If however it began going up rather than down to say $52.00, he starts feeling the pain and buys it back at a loss. Now imagine this at the large institutional level where large blocks of stocks trade daily. If large block trader’s stops on short positions start getting hit forcing them to buy back their shares the up volume moves the market up significantly, in a sense feeding off itself.
I’ll be out traveling the next few days, but will attempt to post while I travel. I may not post an update daily but will post any signal updates, IFTs or changes to my ETF positions.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08.
ETF:
Long QLD near the close 8 Apr at 75.29
Stop = a Q’s close below 44.37 (just below 22 day EMA on Q’s)
Note on stops: I normally use some sort of support/resistance or moving average based on the chart that the ETF follows rather than the ETF chart itself. In this case I’m using a close below the 22 day exponential moving average on the Q’s, symbol QQQQ. Additionally, the stops are not hard stops meaning they are not set as stops in my trading account. I tend to use closing stops based on closing prices to avoid intraday swings.
Feel free to follow along, but I recommend just watching to see how the trade works out.
optionman
I remain bullish on the market. I mentioned in my post yesterday that I may enter an ETF position today near the close depending on how the markets looked. They looked good for an entry so I bought QLD at $75.29 about an hour before the close. I had a little money left after entering an option position so I actually bought a couple of shares. I find it much more interesting if money is actually on the line vs. paper trading. Anyone can look at a chart and say I would have entered at this point and got out there, but for those who trade outside their TSP accounts, they know it’s a bit different when money is on the line and you’re watching hard right edge of the chart.
SPX is still in a tight range and will likely break out today or tomorrow. The bulls remain strong here, not giving up much ground. It could pull back a bit more to 1350 and still be in good shape to launch an assault on its next resistance in the1400 area or it could launch from here, hard to tell. Once it gets just above 1400 we may see a short squeeze causing more up volume.
For those not familiar with the term short squeeze, it’s when traders sell the markets short and then buy back their shorts or get stopped out if the market moves up rather than down. As an example one may sell short a stock at $50.00 per share hoping it falls to $45.00, if he’s right, he buys it back keeping the difference as his profit. If however it began going up rather than down to say $52.00, he starts feeling the pain and buys it back at a loss. Now imagine this at the large institutional level where large blocks of stocks trade daily. If large block trader’s stops on short positions start getting hit forcing them to buy back their shares the up volume moves the market up significantly, in a sense feeding off itself.
I’ll be out traveling the next few days, but will attempt to post while I travel. I may not post an update daily but will post any signal updates, IFTs or changes to my ETF positions.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08.
ETF:
Long QLD near the close 8 Apr at 75.29
Stop = a Q’s close below 44.37 (just below 22 day EMA on Q’s)
Note on stops: I normally use some sort of support/resistance or moving average based on the chart that the ETF follows rather than the ETF chart itself. In this case I’m using a close below the 22 day exponential moving average on the Q’s, symbol QQQQ. Additionally, the stops are not hard stops meaning they are not set as stops in my trading account. I tend to use closing stops based on closing prices to avoid intraday swings.
Feel free to follow along, but I recommend just watching to see how the trade works out.
optionman
False Start?
TSP update: Looks like the up trend that was forming may have been a false start. SPX broke down and closed convincingly below its 1350 support and looks as if it will continue. Next support is 1325 and that support will likely fail in the next week. My stock fund signals have moved to neutral, but now have more of a bearish bias to them and look like they will move to a sell within the next few days, plus I don’t like some of the chart pattern set ups I’m seeing on both short and long term charts so I’m stepping aside. I’m moving to 100% G fund Monday. My bond fund signal remains on a sell.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08. (expecting a sell signal in the next few days)
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08. Moving to 100% G fund Monday 14 April 08
IFTs:
April = 1 Monday, 14 April 08
ETF update: My stop was hit Friday so I plan to sell on Monday. With the breaches of support and violation of short term up-trends the probability of further market deterioration is now much stronger. IMO the market will bounce up for a day or so and then roll over and head down. After selling my QLD position I plan to sell short the Q’s, either immediately after or within a few days depending on market conditions. For those wondering why the Q’s rather than QLD, it’s because I’m becoming much more risk averse and the ultra ETFs, although attractive, carry much more risk. I’ll post the trade for those monitoring. I’ll also post results of the ETF trades I make for those monitoring.
ETF:
Long QLD near the close 8 Apr at 75.29
Stop = a Q’s close below 44.37 (just below 22 day EMA on Q’s)
Stop hit, will sell QLD Monday and sell short Q's. Stay tuned.
Note: For those monitoring this thread I do not normally post daily. I post when:
I get a signal change
I make an IFT
I get an entry point after a signal change (at times a signal will change and I wait for an entry point)
I enter or exit ETF positions
Beginning next week I’ll post results for ETF trades that I post on this thread
optionman
TSP update: Looks like the up trend that was forming may have been a false start. SPX broke down and closed convincingly below its 1350 support and looks as if it will continue. Next support is 1325 and that support will likely fail in the next week. My stock fund signals have moved to neutral, but now have more of a bearish bias to them and look like they will move to a sell within the next few days, plus I don’t like some of the chart pattern set ups I’m seeing on both short and long term charts so I’m stepping aside. I’m moving to 100% G fund Monday. My bond fund signal remains on a sell.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08. (expecting a sell signal in the next few days)
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08. Moving to 100% G fund Monday 14 April 08
IFTs:
April = 1 Monday, 14 April 08
ETF update: My stop was hit Friday so I plan to sell on Monday. With the breaches of support and violation of short term up-trends the probability of further market deterioration is now much stronger. IMO the market will bounce up for a day or so and then roll over and head down. After selling my QLD position I plan to sell short the Q’s, either immediately after or within a few days depending on market conditions. For those wondering why the Q’s rather than QLD, it’s because I’m becoming much more risk averse and the ultra ETFs, although attractive, carry much more risk. I’ll post the trade for those monitoring. I’ll also post results of the ETF trades I make for those monitoring.
ETF:
Long QLD near the close 8 Apr at 75.29
Stop = a Q’s close below 44.37 (just below 22 day EMA on Q’s)
Stop hit, will sell QLD Monday and sell short Q's. Stay tuned.
Note: For those monitoring this thread I do not normally post daily. I post when:
I get a signal change
I make an IFT
I get an entry point after a signal change (at times a signal will change and I wait for an entry point)
I enter or exit ETF positions
Beginning next week I’ll post results for ETF trades that I post on this thread
optionman
Braveheart
Member
Re: False Start?
So you don't have a sell signal more instinct on this. I got out and went to G Fund since last Monday. I got back in Friday seeing this drop as a buying opportunity. If it rebounds in the C Fund and S Fund by Tuesday back to 1360 or even 1350 I will cover that and get out. Make .30 cents per share and watch from the G Fund. If it drops then I just repeat the process.
If the Market Drops back to 1300 I will wait it out either way from my entry point I feel good about a quick hit and split.
TSP update: Looks like the up trend that was forming may have been a false start. SPX broke down and closed convincingly below its 1350 support and looks as if it will continue. Next support is 1325 and that support will likely fail in the next week. My stock fund signals have moved to neutral, but now have more of a bearish bias to them and look like they will move to a sell within the next few days, plus I don’t like some of the chart pattern set ups I’m seeing on both short and long term charts so I’m stepping aside. I’m moving to 100% G fund Monday. My bond fund signal remains on a sell.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy, signal date 19 March 08. (expecting a sell signal in the next few days)
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 1 April 08.
TSP Position/Allocation:
100% S fund as of 20 Mar 08. Moving to 100% G fund Monday 14 April 08
IFTs:
April = 1 Monday, 14 April 08
ETF update: My stop was hit Friday so I plan to sell on Monday. With the breaches of support and violation of short term up-trends the probability of further market deterioration is now much stronger. IMO the market will bounce up for a day or so and then roll over and head down. After selling my QLD position I plan to sell short the Q’s, either immediately after or within a few days depending on market conditions. For those wondering why the Q’s rather than QLD, it’s because I’m becoming much more risk averse and the ultra ETFs, although attractive, carry much more risk. I’ll post the trade for those monitoring. I’ll also post results of the ETF trades I make for those monitoring.
ETF:
Long QLD near the close 8 Apr at 75.29
Stop = a Q’s close below 44.37 (just below 22 day EMA on Q’s)
Stop hit, will sell QLD Monday and sell short Q's. Stay tuned.
Note: For those monitoring this thread I do not normally post daily. I post when:
I get a signal change
I make an IFT
I get an entry point after a signal change (at times a signal will change and I wait for an entry point)
I enter or exit ETF positions
Beginning next week I’ll post results for ETF trades that I post on this thread
optionman
So you don't have a sell signal more instinct on this. I got out and went to G Fund since last Monday. I got back in Friday seeing this drop as a buying opportunity. If it rebounds in the C Fund and S Fund by Tuesday back to 1360 or even 1350 I will cover that and get out. Make .30 cents per share and watch from the G Fund. If it drops then I just repeat the process.
If the Market Drops back to 1300 I will wait it out either way from my entry point I feel good about a quick hit and split.
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