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optionman's Account Talk
- Thread starter optionman
- Start date
- Status
Will it hold?
SPX closed above its 1340-1365 trading range. Now we want to see some follow through or at least see it continue to close above that range. A pullback into it would be bearish while if we remain above it we could make an assault on the next level of overhead resistance at 1375-1380. Volume was decent but not great. A strong volume up move would be welcome here and likely lead to a stronger rally. My signals for the NAZ and Q’s moved to neutral yesterday. A strong up move from here would pull them back to a buy, but a down move has the potential to move them to a sell.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: The C and S funds both look strong here. The I fund will likely move up in lockstep with the C & S funds but may experience lots of continued volatility here, up strong one day - down strong the next etc. The bond fund remains on a sell but may soon find a bottom.
Positions:
TSP: 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, stop = C fund below $15.22 and/or an SPX close below 1340 (this IFT was not based on a signal change, the C fund just looks to have a little more momentum here. I’ll be doing a little more analysis on this in the next few days, the short term momentum seems to favor the C fund while the longer term seems to favor the S fund so while I plan to stay in C for the next few days unless one of my stop points are hit I may soon switch back to S.)
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a Q’s close below $43.41
My signals and market analysis suggest the market will move in favor of my position, but as always it is possible that it may move against my position in which case I have a predetermined exit point.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
SPX closed above its 1340-1365 trading range. Now we want to see some follow through or at least see it continue to close above that range. A pullback into it would be bearish while if we remain above it we could make an assault on the next level of overhead resistance at 1375-1380. Volume was decent but not great. A strong volume up move would be welcome here and likely lead to a stronger rally. My signals for the NAZ and Q’s moved to neutral yesterday. A strong up move from here would pull them back to a buy, but a down move has the potential to move them to a sell.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: The C and S funds both look strong here. The I fund will likely move up in lockstep with the C & S funds but may experience lots of continued volatility here, up strong one day - down strong the next etc. The bond fund remains on a sell but may soon find a bottom.
Positions:
TSP: 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, stop = C fund below $15.22 and/or an SPX close below 1340 (this IFT was not based on a signal change, the C fund just looks to have a little more momentum here. I’ll be doing a little more analysis on this in the next few days, the short term momentum seems to favor the C fund while the longer term seems to favor the S fund so while I plan to stay in C for the next few days unless one of my stop points are hit I may soon switch back to S.)
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a Q’s close below $43.41
My signals and market analysis suggest the market will move in favor of my position, but as always it is possible that it may move against my position in which case I have a predetermined exit point.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
mojo--Thanks!, Next update coming up, but I got to run right after I post. Take care.
optionman
Monthy Strength Period
We got the follow through we were looking for and now have a little breathing room, by which I mean we can actually pull back slightly and still keep the shorter term up trend in place, as long as we don’t pull back much. Volume was decent again but not great. A few bullish confluences seem to be coming together here. We are entering the monthly strength period, more on that below, and we are beginning to see bad news shrugged off by the market. This is generally bullish.
This Thursday we move into the monthly strength period for the stock market. It starts the last 2 trading days of February and goes through the first 3 trading days of March. I generally don’t pay much attention to these shorter term patterns/cycles when the market is in a down trend, but it will be interesting to watch this time since we could be establishing an uptrend.
Perhaps we will begin a long term rally during this month’s “monthly strength period”. We will want to see some significant resistance levels taken out before that can happen. It would be nice to see a slight pullback here followed by a strong move up taking out some of the resistance and causing a short squeeze culminating a strong up move supported by strong volume.
Longer term patterns. In one of my previous posts I mentioned that in the decennial chart pattern years ending in 7 are the most bearish and usually bottom near the end of the year or early in the following year and years ending in 8 are generally very bullish, second only to years ending in 5 in the decennial cycle. I believe we will see this pattern unfold this year. Until proven wrong I believe the bottom made in January has been retested at SPX 1325 and we will likely begin a bullish move soon. Many still believe we will see the January bottom retested, but I for one am not in that camp. However, I remain cautious and will continue to follow my signals which support a bullish stance, at least for now.
Another cycle is the Presidential cycle which suggests that election years are generally bullish.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: The C and S funds both look strong here. The I fund will likely move up in lockstep with the C & S funds but may experience lots of continued volatility here, up strong one day - down strong the next etc. The bond fund remains on a sell but may soon find a bottom. I was surprised to see the USD plunge so much today and am of the opinion we will see it bounce back up from here. We will see in the next few days.
Positions:
TSP: 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, stop =C fund below $15.22/SPXclose below 1340
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a Q’s close below $43.41
My signals and market analysis suggest the market will move in favor of my position, but as always it is possible that it may move against my position in which case I have a predetermined exit point.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
We got the follow through we were looking for and now have a little breathing room, by which I mean we can actually pull back slightly and still keep the shorter term up trend in place, as long as we don’t pull back much. Volume was decent again but not great. A few bullish confluences seem to be coming together here. We are entering the monthly strength period, more on that below, and we are beginning to see bad news shrugged off by the market. This is generally bullish.
This Thursday we move into the monthly strength period for the stock market. It starts the last 2 trading days of February and goes through the first 3 trading days of March. I generally don’t pay much attention to these shorter term patterns/cycles when the market is in a down trend, but it will be interesting to watch this time since we could be establishing an uptrend.
Perhaps we will begin a long term rally during this month’s “monthly strength period”. We will want to see some significant resistance levels taken out before that can happen. It would be nice to see a slight pullback here followed by a strong move up taking out some of the resistance and causing a short squeeze culminating a strong up move supported by strong volume.
Longer term patterns. In one of my previous posts I mentioned that in the decennial chart pattern years ending in 7 are the most bearish and usually bottom near the end of the year or early in the following year and years ending in 8 are generally very bullish, second only to years ending in 5 in the decennial cycle. I believe we will see this pattern unfold this year. Until proven wrong I believe the bottom made in January has been retested at SPX 1325 and we will likely begin a bullish move soon. Many still believe we will see the January bottom retested, but I for one am not in that camp. However, I remain cautious and will continue to follow my signals which support a bullish stance, at least for now.
Another cycle is the Presidential cycle which suggests that election years are generally bullish.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: The C and S funds both look strong here. The I fund will likely move up in lockstep with the C & S funds but may experience lots of continued volatility here, up strong one day - down strong the next etc. The bond fund remains on a sell but may soon find a bottom. I was surprised to see the USD plunge so much today and am of the opinion we will see it bounce back up from here. We will see in the next few days.
Positions:
TSP: 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, stop =C fund below $15.22/SPXclose below 1340
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a Q’s close below $43.41
My signals and market analysis suggest the market will move in favor of my position, but as always it is possible that it may move against my position in which case I have a predetermined exit point.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
caymanbrac12
Member
"Another cycle is the Presidential cycle which suggests that election years are generally bullish. " optionman quote
Figure 1 – Breakdown of Dow performance for holding the index during each of the 4-election years. As you can see, the pre-election year outperformed the other 3 years by a wide margin. In fact by only owning the index during the pre-election year, you would have outperformed owning for the other 3 years together.
http://www.electionomics.com/bestyears.asp
Figure 1 – Breakdown of Dow performance for holding the index during each of the 4-election years. As you can see, the pre-election year outperformed the other 3 years by a wide margin. In fact by only owning the index during the pre-election year, you would have outperformed owning for the other 3 years together.
http://www.electionomics.com/bestyears.asp
caymanbrac12---Thanks, for your comment and you're absolutely right. The pre-election years do outperform all others, but election years come in second in the cycle hence my mentioning election years are "generally bullish" When it comes to post election and mid term election our data conflicts. I show from strongest to weakest:
pre-election
election
mid term
post election
My source is the 2008 Stock Traders ALmanac.
optionman
Pull back as expected
We had a mixed close today with the indices closing either slightly up or slightly down. My analysis suggest we will likely see a little more to this pullback. If the indices can remain above their recent break outs or their 20 day EMAs we will likely remain in a bullish stance and move up. If we move back in to the recent trading ranges it would be a bearish sign if we don’t remain above the uptrend being made. The longer term trend is still down and that must be respected, but IMO we are beginning a new uptrend that has a strong potential to turn in to a meaningful rally.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
TSP: 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, Stop =C fund below $15.22/SPXclose below 1340
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a Q’s close below $43.41
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
We had a mixed close today with the indices closing either slightly up or slightly down. My analysis suggest we will likely see a little more to this pullback. If the indices can remain above their recent break outs or their 20 day EMAs we will likely remain in a bullish stance and move up. If we move back in to the recent trading ranges it would be a bearish sign if we don’t remain above the uptrend being made. The longer term trend is still down and that must be respected, but IMO we are beginning a new uptrend that has a strong potential to turn in to a meaningful rally.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
TSP: 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, Stop =C fund below $15.22/SPXclose below 1340
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a Q’s close below $43.41
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Catalyst for an up move?
We got the pullback as expected on Thursday and were able to remain above the trading range and 20 day EMA. This bodes well for the market overall. The short term trend is up. The SPX looks well rested here and could begin its assault on the next level of resistance as early as today. What will the catalyst be for the next up move? Ironically it could a piece of be bad news that news pundits put a positive spin on. My stock fund signals remain on a buy and I remain bullish.
Fund specific: C & S funds both look rested and ready to move up, I fund looks over extended and may have a tough time moving much higher, F fund remains on a sell, but is looking like it may move to a buy soon, perhaps in the next few days.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
TSP: 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, Stop =C fund below $15.22/SPXclose below 1340
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a Q’s close below $43.41
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
We got the pullback as expected on Thursday and were able to remain above the trading range and 20 day EMA. This bodes well for the market overall. The short term trend is up. The SPX looks well rested here and could begin its assault on the next level of resistance as early as today. What will the catalyst be for the next up move? Ironically it could a piece of be bad news that news pundits put a positive spin on. My stock fund signals remain on a buy and I remain bullish.
Fund specific: C & S funds both look rested and ready to move up, I fund looks over extended and may have a tough time moving much higher, F fund remains on a sell, but is looking like it may move to a buy soon, perhaps in the next few days.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
TSP: 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, Stop =C fund below $15.22/SPXclose below 1340
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a Q’s close below $43.41
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Short term uptrend broke, now what?
The bears got the drop on us Friday. The short term uptrend broke and my stops were hit, but my stock fund signals remain on a buy. We’ve had a pretty strong sell off the last 3 days and are sitting close to a strong support level at SPX 1325. I expect a bounce up from here and may sell into it, but if it’s a strong bounce I’ll give it a little room to run since my stock fund signals remain on a buy and on a longer term basis the market looks coiled and ready to launch to the upside.
I remain bullish with SPX 1325 as my “line in the sand” but I’m ready to pull the trigger if we don’t bounce strongly out of this. Until proven wrong I continue to believe 2008 will turn out to be a great year for stocks and that we are at or near a bottom, but the market has proven me wrong in the past so it certainly wouldn't be the first time. If we begin closing below 1325 I’ll become much more bearish and low crawl to the bearish camp staying very low so as not to be detected.
If I were not already in stocks I would look at this as an entry point and hop in here (C or S funds only), if we began closing below 1325 I would hop back out.
My bond fund signal moved to a buy on Friday, but I wouldn’t get in just yet. With the TNX having dropped as much as it has over the last few days it will likely bounce putting pressure on the bonds. The I fund and US Dollar face the same scenerio and the Asian markets will likey plunge on Monday following the US markets.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08.
Bond fund: Buy effective 29 Feb 08.
I am 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, (stops hit, considering IFT on strength depending on bounce and signal at the time)
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
The bears got the drop on us Friday. The short term uptrend broke and my stops were hit, but my stock fund signals remain on a buy. We’ve had a pretty strong sell off the last 3 days and are sitting close to a strong support level at SPX 1325. I expect a bounce up from here and may sell into it, but if it’s a strong bounce I’ll give it a little room to run since my stock fund signals remain on a buy and on a longer term basis the market looks coiled and ready to launch to the upside.
I remain bullish with SPX 1325 as my “line in the sand” but I’m ready to pull the trigger if we don’t bounce strongly out of this. Until proven wrong I continue to believe 2008 will turn out to be a great year for stocks and that we are at or near a bottom, but the market has proven me wrong in the past so it certainly wouldn't be the first time. If we begin closing below 1325 I’ll become much more bearish and low crawl to the bearish camp staying very low so as not to be detected.
If I were not already in stocks I would look at this as an entry point and hop in here (C or S funds only), if we began closing below 1325 I would hop back out.
My bond fund signal moved to a buy on Friday, but I wouldn’t get in just yet. With the TNX having dropped as much as it has over the last few days it will likely bounce putting pressure on the bonds. The I fund and US Dollar face the same scenerio and the Asian markets will likey plunge on Monday following the US markets.
Signals:
Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08.
Bond fund: Buy effective 29 Feb 08.
I am 100% C fund as of 25 Feb, (stops hit, considering IFT on strength depending on bounce and signal at the time)
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Entry Point & Exit Point
My stock fund signals moved to a neutral stance Monday but are now more bearish than bullish so I’m moving to 100% G fund Tuesday. Now if we can get a strong up day to sell into that would be great. I continue to believe 2008 will turn out to be a great year for stocks, but there now appears to be a stronger possibility that we will see lows before we see new highs. IMO if we do break to the downside which seems more likely now than not, and close below SPX 1325 we will likely not only test the January lows but set new lows.
On a more positive note we are starting to see (as we have for the past 3 weeks now) bad news being shrugged off by the market and some of the longer term chart set ups actually look more bullish than bearish, but the daily charts are looking ugly here and my signals are suggesting it is time to step aside until things shake out.
I mentioned in my weekend post that if I were not in stock funds I would use the Friday’s sell off as an entry point and enter Monday and use 1325 as a stop point. I still like the risk/reward basis of that position, but with my signals moving if I did enter yesterday I would go ahead and back out today.
The bond fund remains on a short term buy here (longer term it’s on a sell) but it too is looking ugly at this point and the buy signal looks to be weakening so I am moving to 100% G.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Buy, signal date 29 Feb 08.
Positions:
100% C fund as of 25 Feb (entered S fund on 15 Feb, moved to C on 25 Feb) Moving to 100% G fund today.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
My stock fund signals moved to a neutral stance Monday but are now more bearish than bullish so I’m moving to 100% G fund Tuesday. Now if we can get a strong up day to sell into that would be great. I continue to believe 2008 will turn out to be a great year for stocks, but there now appears to be a stronger possibility that we will see lows before we see new highs. IMO if we do break to the downside which seems more likely now than not, and close below SPX 1325 we will likely not only test the January lows but set new lows.
On a more positive note we are starting to see (as we have for the past 3 weeks now) bad news being shrugged off by the market and some of the longer term chart set ups actually look more bullish than bearish, but the daily charts are looking ugly here and my signals are suggesting it is time to step aside until things shake out.
I mentioned in my weekend post that if I were not in stock funds I would use the Friday’s sell off as an entry point and enter Monday and use 1325 as a stop point. I still like the risk/reward basis of that position, but with my signals moving if I did enter yesterday I would go ahead and back out today.
The bond fund remains on a short term buy here (longer term it’s on a sell) but it too is looking ugly at this point and the buy signal looks to be weakening so I am moving to 100% G.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Buy, signal date 29 Feb 08.
Positions:
100% C fund as of 25 Feb (entered S fund on 15 Feb, moved to C on 25 Feb) Moving to 100% G fund today.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Short term bearish
As the SPX continues to flirt with its 1325 support I’m becoming more bearish at least for the short term. A break and close below it and I am in the bear camp. The penetration of that support Monday and Tuesday is not a good sign. It suggests it is becoming vulnerable. I’m now beginning to believe we are near another panic driven sell off that will lead to another capitulation bottom and we will likely set new lows and unfortunately they will likely be closing lows rather than intraday lows. We may get a bit of a bounce on Wednesday, if I were in stock funds I would look to sell into it. I would not be in stock funds at this point.
On a longer term basis I still believe the stock market will have a great year. Hopefully we will soon form a bottom so we can begin a meaningful tradable rally. This whipsaw business is getting old and fast. I rely on my signal system and my stock funds signals are on a sell.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Buy, signal date 29 Feb 08 (The bond fund is on a buy, but that signal is weakening and the chart is ugly so I would not enter here) I may attempt to try and time an entry soon but not just yet.
Positions:
100% G fund as of 4 March 08.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
As the SPX continues to flirt with its 1325 support I’m becoming more bearish at least for the short term. A break and close below it and I am in the bear camp. The penetration of that support Monday and Tuesday is not a good sign. It suggests it is becoming vulnerable. I’m now beginning to believe we are near another panic driven sell off that will lead to another capitulation bottom and we will likely set new lows and unfortunately they will likely be closing lows rather than intraday lows. We may get a bit of a bounce on Wednesday, if I were in stock funds I would look to sell into it. I would not be in stock funds at this point.
On a longer term basis I still believe the stock market will have a great year. Hopefully we will soon form a bottom so we can begin a meaningful tradable rally. This whipsaw business is getting old and fast. I rely on my signal system and my stock funds signals are on a sell.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Buy, signal date 29 Feb 08 (The bond fund is on a buy, but that signal is weakening and the chart is ugly so I would not enter here) I may attempt to try and time an entry soon but not just yet.
Positions:
100% G fund as of 4 March 08.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
More indecision
The SPX has traded in a tight range for the past 3 days now and continues to penetrate its 1325 support, but continues to close above it. We could get a bit more of a bounce here, but 1340 will likely become resistance now. My analysis suggests we will break out of this indecision point soon and most likely to the downside. I continue to believe we will see new closing lows before we see new highs. My stock fund signals remain on a sell and my bond fund signal moved to a sell today.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 5 March 08.
Positions:
100% G fund as of 4 March 08.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
The SPX has traded in a tight range for the past 3 days now and continues to penetrate its 1325 support, but continues to close above it. We could get a bit more of a bounce here, but 1340 will likely become resistance now. My analysis suggests we will break out of this indecision point soon and most likely to the downside. I continue to believe we will see new closing lows before we see new highs. My stock fund signals remain on a sell and my bond fund signal moved to a sell today.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 5 March 08.
Positions:
100% G fund as of 4 March 08.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Downward pressure remains
Strong down day across the board Friday, but could have been much worse. I’m now bearish on this market at least for the short term. My stock funds and bond fund signals remain on a sell. We will likely see a bounce up, but if we do I expect it to be short lived. SPX 1325 should now serve as strong resistance, but under that we have weaker resistance at the 1320 and 1310 levels. I'm of the opinion that we will likely see lower closing lows before we begin moving up. We need a good old fashion panic driven sell off followed by a capitulation bottom, then maybe we can begin a meaningful rally. I remain in the G fund for now. I’m looking for a possible move to the F fund shortly, but it appears to be ready to resume its sell off here so I’ll wait a little longer and see how it shakes out.
Note: I’m going to begin limiting my posts and post only when one of my signals change, when I get an entry point and when I do an IFT. However, I will be lurking in the shadows, reading other threads and Tom’s daily updates.
To monitor performance keep an eye on autotracker, but make sure to scroll all the way down since we’ve been broken into 2 groups.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell,signal date 5 March 08.
Positions:
100% G fund as of 4 March 08.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Strong down day across the board Friday, but could have been much worse. I’m now bearish on this market at least for the short term. My stock funds and bond fund signals remain on a sell. We will likely see a bounce up, but if we do I expect it to be short lived. SPX 1325 should now serve as strong resistance, but under that we have weaker resistance at the 1320 and 1310 levels. I'm of the opinion that we will likely see lower closing lows before we begin moving up. We need a good old fashion panic driven sell off followed by a capitulation bottom, then maybe we can begin a meaningful rally. I remain in the G fund for now. I’m looking for a possible move to the F fund shortly, but it appears to be ready to resume its sell off here so I’ll wait a little longer and see how it shakes out.
Note: I’m going to begin limiting my posts and post only when one of my signals change, when I get an entry point and when I do an IFT. However, I will be lurking in the shadows, reading other threads and Tom’s daily updates.
To monitor performance keep an eye on autotracker, but make sure to scroll all the way down since we’ve been broken into 2 groups.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell,signal date 5 March 08.
Positions:
100% G fund as of 4 March 08.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Ift
Moving to 100% F fund today anticipating a bullish pattern developing in the bonds to move my bond fund signal to a buy.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 5 March 08. (anticipating bond fund signal to move to a buy within a day or so.)
Positions:
100% G fund as of 4 March 08. (moving to 100% F fund today)
Moving to 100% F fund today anticipating a bullish pattern developing in the bonds to move my bond fund signal to a buy.
Signals:
Stock funds: Sell, signal date 3 March 08.
Bond fund: Sell, signal date 5 March 08. (anticipating bond fund signal to move to a buy within a day or so.)
Positions:
100% G fund as of 4 March 08. (moving to 100% F fund today)
Optionman,
adding to the mix, do you see grounds for reconsidering your IFT to the F fund with the increased liquidity and the concerted action of central banks today?
adding to the mix, do you see grounds for reconsidering your IFT to the F fund with the increased liquidity and the concerted action of central banks today?
airlift--Although it was certainly a surprise I'm going to go ahead with my IFT and see if my bullish set up resolves to the upside or fails. It certainly could to fail at this point, but bonds are a bit oversold here so I' m going to get in and give it a little room. I will be looking at stop points after the close today.
optionman
Gumby--I'm not certain they will cut by 75 basis points, but if they do I believe bonds will rise, not so much because of the cut, but because they are looking oversold here and after today hopefully they will find a bottom and begin moving up. So if they begin moving up and the FED cuts it will likely add fuel to the move. Just my opinion.
optionman
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