Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Don't understand why you are on a buy signal for stocks but not in stocks? What good is having signals?
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optionman's Account Talk
- Thread starter optionman
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Have we set a bottom?
Intrepid--Please review my last few posts and you will find the answer to your question. Thanks.
My stock fund signals remain on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell as of the 29th of Jan. The market had a very volatile day today closing in the positive and right at one of the resistance points I’m watching 1375-1380.
Today we will see if it can hold and continue higher or if it fails and pulls back. The jobs report has a tendency to swing the market strongly in one direction or the other so today should be interesting.
I still want to see a break and hold above the stronger resistance point at the 1400-1410 area or a significant sell off that takes out the recent low. I remain 100% in the G fund waiting for an entry.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the other stock funds but may not keep up with the S or C fund at this point.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results beginning 17 Jan 07
Follow the money or follow the herd!
Optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Intrepid--Please review my last few posts and you will find the answer to your question. Thanks.
My stock fund signals remain on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell as of the 29th of Jan. The market had a very volatile day today closing in the positive and right at one of the resistance points I’m watching 1375-1380.
Today we will see if it can hold and continue higher or if it fails and pulls back. The jobs report has a tendency to swing the market strongly in one direction or the other so today should be interesting.
I still want to see a break and hold above the stronger resistance point at the 1400-1410 area or a significant sell off that takes out the recent low. I remain 100% in the G fund waiting for an entry.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the other stock funds but may not keep up with the S or C fund at this point.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results beginning 17 Jan 07
Follow the money or follow the herd!
Optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Signal vs. Entry
A few days ago one of the board members asked a good question about my signal system that I’ll spend a few minutes on here.
Question: “Don't understand why you are on a buy signal for stocks but not in stocks? What good is having signals?”
Answer: With my system the signal and the entry are two separate actions. Let me explain using an analogy of driving down the street.
Let’s say you are sitting at a 4 way stop light, the light’s red so you’re stopped and waiting. It turns green, but before hitting the gas you look to your right you see an 18 wheeler coming your direction and moving so fast you know he won’t be able to stop at the light, so you wait until he goes through the intersection before going.
My system works similar to this. I get a signal and then before jumping in, determine an entry point based on market analysis. It’s not uncommon for me to get buy signals but not enter for 1-2 weeks as I wait for the opportune entry point.
With the market volatility lately I’m looking for a break through and hold above the 1410 area of the SPX or a significant sell off in which my signals remain on buys as an entry point. I expect we will see one of these in the next week. Which one is still debatable. The SPX is near the 1410 area which could serve as a strong resistance point and push the market back down (this would be very bearish and the bears could regain control if it happens) or we could break through and hold.
My stock fund signals remain on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell as of the 29th of Jan.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the other stock funds but may not keep up with the S or C fund at this point. The F fund continues to look weak here.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results beginning 17 Jan 07
Follow the money or follow the herd!
Optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
A few days ago one of the board members asked a good question about my signal system that I’ll spend a few minutes on here.
Question: “Don't understand why you are on a buy signal for stocks but not in stocks? What good is having signals?”
Answer: With my system the signal and the entry are two separate actions. Let me explain using an analogy of driving down the street.
Let’s say you are sitting at a 4 way stop light, the light’s red so you’re stopped and waiting. It turns green, but before hitting the gas you look to your right you see an 18 wheeler coming your direction and moving so fast you know he won’t be able to stop at the light, so you wait until he goes through the intersection before going.
My system works similar to this. I get a signal and then before jumping in, determine an entry point based on market analysis. It’s not uncommon for me to get buy signals but not enter for 1-2 weeks as I wait for the opportune entry point.
With the market volatility lately I’m looking for a break through and hold above the 1410 area of the SPX or a significant sell off in which my signals remain on buys as an entry point. I expect we will see one of these in the next week. Which one is still debatable. The SPX is near the 1410 area which could serve as a strong resistance point and push the market back down (this would be very bearish and the bears could regain control if it happens) or we could break through and hold.
My stock fund signals remain on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell as of the 29th of Jan.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the other stock funds but may not keep up with the S or C fund at this point. The F fund continues to look weak here.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results beginning 17 Jan 07
Follow the money or follow the herd!
Optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Optionman,
your buy sell signals seem to be accurate so far and within the new 3 IFT per month criteria. If this is typical of your system it may work well here with 3 IFT a month. Can your system be setup to stay within the 3 IFT per month consistantly or is this just a coinsidence that so far you have only IFTd 2x since being in the Tracker?
Take care
your buy sell signals seem to be accurate so far and within the new 3 IFT per month criteria. If this is typical of your system it may work well here with 3 IFT a month. Can your system be setup to stay within the 3 IFT per month consistantly or is this just a coinsidence that so far you have only IFTd 2x since being in the Tracker?
Take care
Mojo, Great question, thanks. It's just a coincidence that my system has only made a couple of IFTs recently. However, I believe it will work out just fine with the 3 IFT requirement, actually I consider it 2.5 IFTs per month (2 plus a move to G if necessary). Based on past results IFTs will be even fewer, perhaps 1 per month, in most cases less, and at times it will remain on a signal for several months so there will be no IFTs. Please review my next post to see what I am looking at for an entry point soon.
optionman
Is a significant market sell off possible?
We are very near a potential pivotal point in the market where there’s a strong possibility that we will experience a significant sell off. Unfortunately, if we do it will likely take the market down further and faster than you’re used to or believe it could. The reason it will move down further and faster than normal has to do with a little know rule the SEC eliminated last year. Below is a description and summary of the rule and its impact on us.
The Uptick rule is a former financial regulations rule, relating to the trading of securities in the United States. The rule was eliminated by the SEC, effective July 6, 2007.
'Uptick' is the name generally given to Rule 10a-1, under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, which states that short selling is only permitted following a trade where the traded price was higher than the previously traded price (uptick).
On the NYSE a short sale may only be done on an uptick or a zero plus tick (which occurs when the price is the same price as the last trade, but higher than the previous different trade).
On the NASDAQ, shorting is only allowed on the bid side when the current inside bid is not lower than the previous inside bid (i.e. a downtick).
So how will this impact us?
Categorized by Individual Investor and Institution & Funds
Individual Investors: Longer-term investors, especially those that only go long, will see little change in their activities. But for anyone shorting NYSE or AMEX stocks, the change could have a significant impact on the ease of getting filled in those short sales, since investors will no longer have to wait for an uptick. However, there won't be much change for Nasdaq stocks, since earlier changes allowed legal workarounds for Nasdaq traders as indicated above.
Institutions & Funds: A common practice for "big money" on Wall Street was to craftily put in a significant amount of buy orders to move a stock to an uptick before then placing their real short sale order. But now that the SEC has eliminated the uptick rule, short selling will now be more efficient for these institutions and funds.
The elimination of the rule has caused and will continue to cause more volatility in the markets and as a result we will continue to see much larger swings especially to the downside when the bears step in, so much so that I wouldn’t be surprised if we get an extreme sell off and the SEC freaks out, steps in and reinstates the rule to curb the sell off and bring the market back to order.
Bottom Line: With the elimination of the uptick rule large institutions can scale into short positions with large block orders causing the market to drop further and faster than when the rule was in effect and when this happens the impact on us can be significant if we are long the market.
The pivotal point of which I speak is the resistance at the 1410 area on the SPX. If we can’t overcome this resistance convincingly or break above it and hold, it’s where the bears could sink their teeth in and push the market down far and fast.
Bearish indications: The market’s oversold rally has now run its course, we have a V bottom that I don’t think we will get away with, we still have the bearish H&S pattern to overcome and we have a bearish volume/price divergence.
So at this point I'm expecting a significant sell off, but if the SPX can overcome the 1410 area convincingly and prove me wrong, I'll be watching that area very closely for an entry.
I remain 100% in the G fund waiting patiently for an entry point.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
Optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
We are very near a potential pivotal point in the market where there’s a strong possibility that we will experience a significant sell off. Unfortunately, if we do it will likely take the market down further and faster than you’re used to or believe it could. The reason it will move down further and faster than normal has to do with a little know rule the SEC eliminated last year. Below is a description and summary of the rule and its impact on us.
The Uptick rule is a former financial regulations rule, relating to the trading of securities in the United States. The rule was eliminated by the SEC, effective July 6, 2007.
'Uptick' is the name generally given to Rule 10a-1, under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, which states that short selling is only permitted following a trade where the traded price was higher than the previously traded price (uptick).
On the NYSE a short sale may only be done on an uptick or a zero plus tick (which occurs when the price is the same price as the last trade, but higher than the previous different trade).
On the NASDAQ, shorting is only allowed on the bid side when the current inside bid is not lower than the previous inside bid (i.e. a downtick).
So how will this impact us?
Categorized by Individual Investor and Institution & Funds
Individual Investors: Longer-term investors, especially those that only go long, will see little change in their activities. But for anyone shorting NYSE or AMEX stocks, the change could have a significant impact on the ease of getting filled in those short sales, since investors will no longer have to wait for an uptick. However, there won't be much change for Nasdaq stocks, since earlier changes allowed legal workarounds for Nasdaq traders as indicated above.
Institutions & Funds: A common practice for "big money" on Wall Street was to craftily put in a significant amount of buy orders to move a stock to an uptick before then placing their real short sale order. But now that the SEC has eliminated the uptick rule, short selling will now be more efficient for these institutions and funds.
The elimination of the rule has caused and will continue to cause more volatility in the markets and as a result we will continue to see much larger swings especially to the downside when the bears step in, so much so that I wouldn’t be surprised if we get an extreme sell off and the SEC freaks out, steps in and reinstates the rule to curb the sell off and bring the market back to order.
Bottom Line: With the elimination of the uptick rule large institutions can scale into short positions with large block orders causing the market to drop further and faster than when the rule was in effect and when this happens the impact on us can be significant if we are long the market.
The pivotal point of which I speak is the resistance at the 1410 area on the SPX. If we can’t overcome this resistance convincingly or break above it and hold, it’s where the bears could sink their teeth in and push the market down far and fast.
Bearish indications: The market’s oversold rally has now run its course, we have a V bottom that I don’t think we will get away with, we still have the bearish H&S pattern to overcome and we have a bearish volume/price divergence.
So at this point I'm expecting a significant sell off, but if the SPX can overcome the 1410 area convincingly and prove me wrong, I'll be watching that area very closely for an entry.
I remain 100% in the G fund waiting patiently for an entry point.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
Optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Optionman, I like your style and attention to detail. You seem patient and not prone to wild emotional swings in your trading strategy. Count me in as an interested reader of your posts. BTW, I have been all G fund since January 18 and am also looking for either confirmation of an upward trend or a deep selloff as an entry point into the stock funds. Good luck and thanks for posting.
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
Re: Is a significant market sell off possible?
weren't 'circuit breakers' removed as well?
We are very near a potential pivotal point in the market where there’s a strong possibility that we will experience a significant sell off. Unfortunately, if we do it will likely take the market down further and faster than you’re used to or believe it could. The reason it will move down further and faster than normal has to do with a little know rule the SEC eliminated last year. Below is a description and summary of the rule and its impact on us.
The Uptick rule is a former financial regulations rule, relating to the trading of securities in the United States. The rule was eliminated by the SEC, effective July 6, 2007.
'Uptick' is the name generally given to Rule 10a-1, under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, which states that short selling is only permitted following a trade where the traded price was higher than the previously traded price (uptick).
On the NYSE a short sale may only be done on an uptick or a zero plus tick (which occurs when the price is the same price as the last trade, but higher than the previous different trade).
On the NASDAQ, shorting is only allowed on the bid side when the current inside bid is not lower than the previous inside bid (i.e. a downtick).
So how will this impact us?
Categorized by Individual Investor and Institution & Funds
Individual Investors: Longer-term investors, especially those that only go long, will see little change in their activities. But for anyone shorting NYSE or AMEX stocks, the change could have a significant impact on the ease of getting filled in those short sales, since investors will no longer have to wait for an uptick. However, there won't be much change for Nasdaq stocks, since earlier changes allowed legal workarounds for Nasdaq traders as indicated above.
Institutions & Funds: A common practice for "big money" on Wall Street was to craftily put in a significant amount of buy orders to move a stock to an uptick before then placing their real short sale order. But now that the SEC has eliminated the uptick rule, short selling will now be more efficient for these institutions and funds.
The elimination of the rule has caused and will continue to cause more volatility in the markets and as a result we will continue to see much larger swings especially to the downside when the bears step in, so much so that I wouldn’t be surprised if we get an extreme sell off and the SEC freaks out, steps in and reinstates the rule to curb the sell off and bring the market back to order.
Bottom Line: With the elimination of the uptick rule large institutions can scale into short positions with large block orders causing the market to drop further and faster than when the rule was in effect and when this happens the impact on us can be significant if we are long the market.
The pivotal point of which I speak is the resistance at the 1410 area on the SPX. If we can’t overcome this resistance convincingly or break above it and hold, it’s where the bears could sink their teeth in and push the market down far and fast.
Bearish indications: The market’s oversold rally has now run its course, we have a V bottom that I don’t think we will get away with, we still have the bearish H&S pattern to overcome and we have a bearish volume/price divergence.
So at this point I'm expecting a significant sell off, but if the SPX can overcome the 1410 area convincingly and prove me wrong, I'll be watching that area very closely for an entry.
I remain 100% in the G fund waiting patiently for an entry point.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
Optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
weren't 'circuit breakers' removed as well?
James48843
Well-known member
Re: Is a significant market sell off possible?
Yes. The "circuit breakers" installed after the market crash of 1987 also were removed last fall.
So here we are, sitting ducks. The safety mechanisms put in place after the 1929 stock market crash, and the 1987 stock market crash, have both been removed by the current SEC administration. G.W. Bush's friends have virtually assured that our nation would return to the "good old days" of 1929, just before October.
Welcome to my nightmare.
Expect continued volatility- both up and down, for the near term future.
Yes. The "circuit breakers" installed after the market crash of 1987 also were removed last fall.
So here we are, sitting ducks. The safety mechanisms put in place after the 1929 stock market crash, and the 1987 stock market crash, have both been removed by the current SEC administration. G.W. Bush's friends have virtually assured that our nation would return to the "good old days" of 1929, just before October.
Welcome to my nightmare.
Expect continued volatility- both up and down, for the near term future.
Are we there yet?
My stock fund signals remain on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell as of the 29th of Jan. For those of you that have been monitoring this thread you will know that I’ve been waiting for a significant sell off as an entry point. Tuesday’s sell off was a strong sell off but not significant enough to lure me back in yet. In my opinion we just haven’t really seen the panic driven sell off we need for this market to bottom yet, but there appears to be a stronger possibility that we will see it sooner than later.
The path of least resistance is still south so I’ll wait a little longer before hopping aboard. I expect the SPX to bottom soon, perhaps by mid Feb. I’m watching 1325 as support but I don’t believe it will hold. I’m looking for a bottom to form around the SPX 1250 area.
In my opinion we are not there yet, but getting closer each day with each downward move. Now if we can just get a panic driven sell off where the markets open significantly lower and sell programs start triggering that takes the DOW down 500-600 points and the SPX 80-100 points and NAZ 120-140 points we may just be able to bottom. Unfortunately, rather than a one day sell off it will probably happen over time.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08, waiting for an entry
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the C and S funds, but may not keep up with them at this point. The F fund continues to look weak here.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
My stock fund signals remain on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell as of the 29th of Jan. For those of you that have been monitoring this thread you will know that I’ve been waiting for a significant sell off as an entry point. Tuesday’s sell off was a strong sell off but not significant enough to lure me back in yet. In my opinion we just haven’t really seen the panic driven sell off we need for this market to bottom yet, but there appears to be a stronger possibility that we will see it sooner than later.
The path of least resistance is still south so I’ll wait a little longer before hopping aboard. I expect the SPX to bottom soon, perhaps by mid Feb. I’m watching 1325 as support but I don’t believe it will hold. I’m looking for a bottom to form around the SPX 1250 area.
In my opinion we are not there yet, but getting closer each day with each downward move. Now if we can just get a panic driven sell off where the markets open significantly lower and sell programs start triggering that takes the DOW down 500-600 points and the SPX 80-100 points and NAZ 120-140 points we may just be able to bottom. Unfortunately, rather than a one day sell off it will probably happen over time.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08, waiting for an entry
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the C and S funds, but may not keep up with them at this point. The F fund continues to look weak here.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
I don't remember this happening before.Agree with you Option. I've been on the lilly pad since Jan. 18th and am awaiting an entry point. Yesterday's selloff was significant but I need a little further drop (maybe another 2% or so) before I take the plunge. Even at that level, I will probably only go 50% stocks and await another possible drop before fully committing.
Bear market or correction?
Are we in a bear market or correction? I guess it depends on your definition of a bear market. We tend to have differing views on what a bear market is. Two of the more common views are:
As much as I believe we need a significant sell off to wash out the weak hands in the market, I also believe there remains a possibility that we can test and even set a new low in the 1250-1260 area and bottom near that point, and begin to move up from there. Of course if we get much lower than that, then it’s a different story as I will begin trading only from the short side and in my TSP only in bonds or G fund or maybe try to scalp a few % here and there when we get to extremes.
Perhaps today, when the same store sales numbers are released if they come in weak, we could experience the sell off I’ve been waiting for and we can begin bottoming. In any case with the recent volatility it is difficult to hold in this market.
My stock fund signals remain on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell as of the 29th of Jan, unfortunately my stock fund signals are showing some weakness and a significant sell off that I’m expecting could move them to a sell. That would not be a good sign and would indicate a longer downward move is very likely. I will be watching them closely if/when we get the sell off I’m expecting.
For those of you who have been keeping an eye on this thread and commenting, thanks I do read and appreciate the feedback. I normally don’t stay on long, just post and move on, but many times I read the comments of other members in their account talk threads at some point throughout the day.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08, waiting for an entry
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the C and S funds, but may not keep up with them at this point. The F fund continues to look weak here. Stock fund signals are weakening, bond fund signal remains weak.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Are we in a bear market or correction? I guess it depends on your definition of a bear market. We tend to have differing views on what a bear market is. Two of the more common views are:
- A 50 day descending moving average (MA) crossing below the 200 day MA while closing prices are closing below to 50 day MA.
- A downward move greater then 20% below the recent high.
As much as I believe we need a significant sell off to wash out the weak hands in the market, I also believe there remains a possibility that we can test and even set a new low in the 1250-1260 area and bottom near that point, and begin to move up from there. Of course if we get much lower than that, then it’s a different story as I will begin trading only from the short side and in my TSP only in bonds or G fund or maybe try to scalp a few % here and there when we get to extremes.
Perhaps today, when the same store sales numbers are released if they come in weak, we could experience the sell off I’ve been waiting for and we can begin bottoming. In any case with the recent volatility it is difficult to hold in this market.
My stock fund signals remain on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell as of the 29th of Jan, unfortunately my stock fund signals are showing some weakness and a significant sell off that I’m expecting could move them to a sell. That would not be a good sign and would indicate a longer downward move is very likely. I will be watching them closely if/when we get the sell off I’m expecting.
For those of you who have been keeping an eye on this thread and commenting, thanks I do read and appreciate the feedback. I normally don’t stay on long, just post and move on, but many times I read the comments of other members in their account talk threads at some point throughout the day.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08, waiting for an entry
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the C and S funds, but may not keep up with them at this point. The F fund continues to look weak here. Stock fund signals are weakening, bond fund signal remains weak.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
More bearish indications
I mentioned yesterday that my stock fund signals were weakening. They are extremely weak here, so much so that another down day will likely cause them to move to a sell. My bond fund signal remains on a sell.
I mentioned in previous posts that once I get a signal, I wait for the opportune entry point. With the recent volatility my signals look as if they will move from a buy given 29 Jan 08 to a sell before my entry point, so I will continue to wait patiently in the G fund.
I still hold a glimmer of hope that the market will reverse and will be watching the areas I mentioned yesterday, but with my signals threatening to move to a sell, I’ll let them tell me where I should be positioned. Losing a few percentage points if the market should rally is certainly better than losing a lot of percentage points on another leg down.
I still expect a significant sell off that tests or takes out the recent lows, but the market is showing signs of backing and filling here which are good signs for a bottom to form, unfortunately they come at a time when my signals are threatening to move to a sell in which case I will remain on the sidelines.
Another bearish indication worth keeping an eye on now is the SPX 200 day MA. The SPX’s 200 day moving average has been pulled into submission by the 50 and 20 day MA’s and is now moving south. Pull up a 10 year daily chart of the SPX plotted with the 200 day simple MA and notice its downward slope. This is not a good sign of things to come. It adds to the bearish stance and threatens that we are or soon will be in a bear market.
This market is a difficult one to trade in so trade wisely and carefully. The old saying “When in doubt stay out” rings true in this case.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the C and S funds, but may not keep up with them at this point. The F fund continues to look weak here. Stock fund signals are extremely weak here, so much so that a down day will likely cause them to move to a sell.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
I mentioned yesterday that my stock fund signals were weakening. They are extremely weak here, so much so that another down day will likely cause them to move to a sell. My bond fund signal remains on a sell.
I mentioned in previous posts that once I get a signal, I wait for the opportune entry point. With the recent volatility my signals look as if they will move from a buy given 29 Jan 08 to a sell before my entry point, so I will continue to wait patiently in the G fund.
I still hold a glimmer of hope that the market will reverse and will be watching the areas I mentioned yesterday, but with my signals threatening to move to a sell, I’ll let them tell me where I should be positioned. Losing a few percentage points if the market should rally is certainly better than losing a lot of percentage points on another leg down.
I still expect a significant sell off that tests or takes out the recent lows, but the market is showing signs of backing and filling here which are good signs for a bottom to form, unfortunately they come at a time when my signals are threatening to move to a sell in which case I will remain on the sidelines.
Another bearish indication worth keeping an eye on now is the SPX 200 day MA. The SPX’s 200 day moving average has been pulled into submission by the 50 and 20 day MA’s and is now moving south. Pull up a 10 year daily chart of the SPX plotted with the 200 day simple MA and notice its downward slope. This is not a good sign of things to come. It adds to the bearish stance and threatens that we are or soon will be in a bear market.
This market is a difficult one to trade in so trade wisely and carefully. The old saying “When in doubt stay out” rings true in this case.
Current positions/allocations:
100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund will probably move up in lockstep with the C and S funds, but may not keep up with them at this point. The F fund continues to look weak here. Stock fund signals are extremely weak here, so much so that a down day will likely cause them to move to a sell.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Signal update
My stock fund signals moved to a sell Friday as anticipated. This suggests we will see more downward movement in the stock funds in the very near future.
We’ve been in a tight range the last 3 days and will likely break out of it in the next day or so, the question is which direction north or south? I’m watching SPX 1350 as upper resistance and 1325 as support. Once we break above or below one of these levels we should see a strong move.
I remain 100% in the G fund waiting for a buy signal in either the stock funds or bond fund. The path of least resistance is still down and I’m still expecting a significant sell off that takes the SPX down to the 1250-1260 area and expect it to happen very soon.
Signals:
Stock Funds: Sell Signal, Signal date 8 Feb 08.
Bond Fund: Sell Signal, Signal date 29 Jan 08.
Current positions/allocations: 100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08
Signal Notes: Wait for a buy signal in either stock funds or bond fund.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
My stock fund signals moved to a sell Friday as anticipated. This suggests we will see more downward movement in the stock funds in the very near future.
We’ve been in a tight range the last 3 days and will likely break out of it in the next day or so, the question is which direction north or south? I’m watching SPX 1350 as upper resistance and 1325 as support. Once we break above or below one of these levels we should see a strong move.
I remain 100% in the G fund waiting for a buy signal in either the stock funds or bond fund. The path of least resistance is still down and I’m still expecting a significant sell off that takes the SPX down to the 1250-1260 area and expect it to happen very soon.
Signals:
Stock Funds: Sell Signal, Signal date 8 Feb 08.
Bond Fund: Sell Signal, Signal date 29 Jan 08.
Current positions/allocations: 100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08
Signal Notes: Wait for a buy signal in either stock funds or bond fund.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Uptrend
Well-known member
What signals are you using to make your sell determination?
My take is a buy signal in the stock funds in the short term and here is why:
americanbulls.com has EFA and the S&P 500 on a buy-if signal, based on chart patterns. Elliot wave theory suggests a new upwave, before resumption to the 1250 area you are talking about (see post today in my thread). There is a fair amount of consolidation about the 1325 level on the S&P going back to late January that IMO favors the upside.
Good luck trading.
My take is a buy signal in the stock funds in the short term and here is why:
americanbulls.com has EFA and the S&P 500 on a buy-if signal, based on chart patterns. Elliot wave theory suggests a new upwave, before resumption to the 1250 area you are talking about (see post today in my thread). There is a fair amount of consolidation about the 1325 level on the S&P going back to late January that IMO favors the upside.
Good luck trading.
Uptrend--Thanks for the inquiry. I use a propriety signal system for my trading signals. They moved from a buy to a sell Friday as I anticipated and mentioned in my post the day prior. Any further down move will strenghten the signals while a strong up move could pull them back to neutral or possibly back to buys. They generally don't move this quickly, but the recent volatility is causing faster moves.
optionman
Bearish tactics for gains in TSP accounts
Tom made an excellent point in his update for Monday and I totally agree with him. The point he made is that even if we are slipping into a bear market we can with careful navigation still hop in and out of the stock funds and pad our TSP accounts doing so. We will obviously have to navigate carefully because in bear markets when we get to an oversold area the markets can continue to go much lower.
According to my criteria (see post# 75 on this thread) we are not in a bear market yet for the SPX, but we are for the NAZ and this does not bode well for the market overall as the market is much stronger when the NAZ takes the lead at least when in a bull market.
In any case if we are slipping into a bear market we can still hop in at extreme bottoms and ride the waves back up but have to be extremely careful and selective in our entry and exit points.
My market signals and analysis suggest further deterioration in the stock funds and the bond fund. If this continues I’ll be watching the market for extremes looking for a possible counter trade against the current trend, but will not likely enter until we’ve reached or come close to my target of SPX 1250-1260. But if we do begin to move up from here I expect my signals to be pulled back to a buy and will be watching the 1350 area as short term resistance to overcome with 1375-80 as stronger resistance.
We are still in a tight range here but I expect we will break out of it in the next day or so. The question remains in which direction. Perhaps we will find out Wednesday when the retail sales figures are published. If the market doesn’t like them it could tank, on the other hand if they don’t like them but shrug them off we could move higher.
Summary: I remain100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08 and will wait for a reversal signal or extreme bottom in which conditions and probabilities are in our favor for a short term bullish move as an entry. It's still a little to risky to jump in here.
Stock Funds Signal: Sell effective 8 Feb 08.
Bond Fund Signal: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Tom made an excellent point in his update for Monday and I totally agree with him. The point he made is that even if we are slipping into a bear market we can with careful navigation still hop in and out of the stock funds and pad our TSP accounts doing so. We will obviously have to navigate carefully because in bear markets when we get to an oversold area the markets can continue to go much lower.
According to my criteria (see post# 75 on this thread) we are not in a bear market yet for the SPX, but we are for the NAZ and this does not bode well for the market overall as the market is much stronger when the NAZ takes the lead at least when in a bull market.
In any case if we are slipping into a bear market we can still hop in at extreme bottoms and ride the waves back up but have to be extremely careful and selective in our entry and exit points.
My market signals and analysis suggest further deterioration in the stock funds and the bond fund. If this continues I’ll be watching the market for extremes looking for a possible counter trade against the current trend, but will not likely enter until we’ve reached or come close to my target of SPX 1250-1260. But if we do begin to move up from here I expect my signals to be pulled back to a buy and will be watching the 1350 area as short term resistance to overcome with 1375-80 as stronger resistance.
We are still in a tight range here but I expect we will break out of it in the next day or so. The question remains in which direction. Perhaps we will find out Wednesday when the retail sales figures are published. If the market doesn’t like them it could tank, on the other hand if they don’t like them but shrug them off we could move higher.
Summary: I remain100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08 and will wait for a reversal signal or extreme bottom in which conditions and probabilities are in our favor for a short term bullish move as an entry. It's still a little to risky to jump in here.
Stock Funds Signal: Sell effective 8 Feb 08.
Bond Fund Signal: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
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