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optionman's Account Talk
- Thread starter optionman
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Ultimate Trader Update 10 Jan 08
TSP stock funds, SPX, NAZ and DOW Signal: Short, signal date 17 Dec 07
Bond Fund represented by AGG Signal: Long, signal date 27 Dec 07
Market Analysis:
SPX had another strong up day today, histo up, macd is still on a sell signal but the signal line is curling up, 50/200 MAs sell signal, VIX remains high, indications point to continued market weakness, but as mentioned in yesterdays post we could be witnessing a bottom here. We’ve been witnessing what I’ll term a capitulation in breadth indicators the last few days with new lows on the NYSE and NAZ at extremes which is actually bullish as a contrary indicator. Plus the market bearishness being so thick lately it gives us the wall of worry to climb, another bullish indicator. It will be interesting to see how the next few days shake out. I’ll hold for a few more days to enter an option position. At this point there’s good arguments by both the bullish and bearish camps. The ultimate trader system (not to be confused with daily market analysis) remains bearish on all stock funds.
Bonds: AGG had another down day today. As mentioned in yesterdays post bonds are OB and may sell off a little but the ultimate trader system remains bullish on bonds.
Open Positions:
TSP: 100% F Fund at the close 28 Dec 07, entry 11.90
Options: None
Action: Remain 100% F fund for TSP, wait for better entry on options
Futurestrader thanks for answering WV – Girl’s question regarding options. The site you provided is a good site. I would also look at optionetics.com and do a google search for “stock options” there are a lot of good sites on options out there.
As always, good luck and happy trading.
optionman out
TSP stock funds, SPX, NAZ and DOW Signal: Short, signal date 17 Dec 07
Bond Fund represented by AGG Signal: Long, signal date 27 Dec 07
Market Analysis:
SPX had another strong up day today, histo up, macd is still on a sell signal but the signal line is curling up, 50/200 MAs sell signal, VIX remains high, indications point to continued market weakness, but as mentioned in yesterdays post we could be witnessing a bottom here. We’ve been witnessing what I’ll term a capitulation in breadth indicators the last few days with new lows on the NYSE and NAZ at extremes which is actually bullish as a contrary indicator. Plus the market bearishness being so thick lately it gives us the wall of worry to climb, another bullish indicator. It will be interesting to see how the next few days shake out. I’ll hold for a few more days to enter an option position. At this point there’s good arguments by both the bullish and bearish camps. The ultimate trader system (not to be confused with daily market analysis) remains bearish on all stock funds.
Bonds: AGG had another down day today. As mentioned in yesterdays post bonds are OB and may sell off a little but the ultimate trader system remains bullish on bonds.
Open Positions:
TSP: 100% F Fund at the close 28 Dec 07, entry 11.90
Options: None
Action: Remain 100% F fund for TSP, wait for better entry on options
Futurestrader thanks for answering WV – Girl’s question regarding options. The site you provided is a good site. I would also look at optionetics.com and do a google search for “stock options” there are a lot of good sites on options out there.
As always, good luck and happy trading.
optionman out
Ultimate Trader Update for 14 Jan 08
All TSP Stock funds plus SPX, NAZ and DOW Signal: Short, signal date 17 Dec 07
TSP Bond Fund represented by AGG Signal: Long, signal date 27 Dec 07
Position: 100% F Fund 28 Dec 07 at 11.90
Note on my last post (Possible option trade): with volatility so high I decided not to buy puts yesterday. Premium is way too high (option traders will know what this means). I considered selling some Jan bear call credit spreads, but Jan expiration being next Friday is a little to close and the credit was not great. Feb expiration is still a little to far out (if I sell credit spreads I like to do so with about 10-12 trading days left until expiration to take advantage of rapid option premium decay).
I chose instead to buy shares of SDS, the SPX ultrashort ETF. I got in near the open at 58.73. I plan to keep a tight stop on the position and bail if we get an SPX close above 1410, otherwise I’ll stick with it and look to sell into market weakness if we get a capitulation bottom soon or if the market continues down just ride the profits.
Since many of the participants on this board may not be familiar with option trading or inverse ETFs I’m considering confining my Ultimate Trader System Updates/Posts to just my TSP position and IFTs and not discuss stock, ETF or option positions. I look forward to board member input on this.
Good luck and happy trading
optionman out:suspicious:
All TSP Stock funds plus SPX, NAZ and DOW Signal: Short, signal date 17 Dec 07
TSP Bond Fund represented by AGG Signal: Long, signal date 27 Dec 07
Position: 100% F Fund 28 Dec 07 at 11.90
Note on my last post (Possible option trade): with volatility so high I decided not to buy puts yesterday. Premium is way too high (option traders will know what this means). I considered selling some Jan bear call credit spreads, but Jan expiration being next Friday is a little to close and the credit was not great. Feb expiration is still a little to far out (if I sell credit spreads I like to do so with about 10-12 trading days left until expiration to take advantage of rapid option premium decay).
I chose instead to buy shares of SDS, the SPX ultrashort ETF. I got in near the open at 58.73. I plan to keep a tight stop on the position and bail if we get an SPX close above 1410, otherwise I’ll stick with it and look to sell into market weakness if we get a capitulation bottom soon or if the market continues down just ride the profits.
Since many of the participants on this board may not be familiar with option trading or inverse ETFs I’m considering confining my Ultimate Trader System Updates/Posts to just my TSP position and IFTs and not discuss stock, ETF or option positions. I look forward to board member input on this.
Good luck and happy trading
optionman out:suspicious:
The_Technician
Active member
Re: Challenging all TSP participants and systems
I want to mention that your F fund prior to 1/07 is nil as far as the tracker goes....so you're really off to a 0% gain start.
Good luck...
This is the optionman signing on with a challenge to all TSP participants and systems for 2008. The challenge is simple. Can your system beat mine? the winner is simply the highest percentage gain overall at the end of 2008. I will post all of my transfers the day I make them and then post the price at the end of the day.
I am currently 100% in the F fund as of the close 28 Dec 07, entry price 11.90
You will have to track and compare results on your own since there are so many of us using our own indicators, systems etc.
Good luck and happy trading.
optionman signing off
I want to mention that your F fund prior to 1/07 is nil as far as the tracker goes....so you're really off to a 0% gain start.
Good luck...
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
Re: Ultimate Trader Update for 14 Jan 08
hey opman
sold 4 feb S&P big 1325 puts for $1.50 each back on 12/28/07...it's a race to opex
hey opman
sold 4 feb S&P big 1325 puts for $1.50 each back on 12/28/07...it's a race to opex
Reply to Technician
Technician--Thanks, I will be signing up either today or tommorow for autotracker, I haven't looked into it so I'm not sure if tracking my account begins on the first day of 2008 or the day I sign up, in anycase, my positions will be in autotracker very soon.
optionman
Technician--Thanks, I will be signing up either today or tommorow for autotracker, I haven't looked into it so I'm not sure if tracking my account begins on the first day of 2008 or the day I sign up, in anycase, my positions will be in autotracker very soon.
optionman
Reply to Futurestrader
Futurestrader, I don't quite understand you Feb put position. It appears to be a futures option trade and although I'm well versed in stock and index options, sorry I'm not familiar with futures. Although I will not likely trade futures or futures options I'd like to understand more about your position. I'm expecting a market capitulation in the next day or so then looking to jump another option position, if volatility spikes I may jump into some VIX option spreads or possibly some SPY spreads short term just looking to capatize on a volatility move.
optionman
Futurestrader, I don't quite understand you Feb put position. It appears to be a futures option trade and although I'm well versed in stock and index options, sorry I'm not familiar with futures. Although I will not likely trade futures or futures options I'd like to understand more about your position. I'm expecting a market capitulation in the next day or so then looking to jump another option position, if volatility spikes I may jump into some VIX option spreads or possibly some SPY spreads short term just looking to capatize on a volatility move.
optionman
EW_ret
Retired Tracker
Re: Challenging all TSP participants and systems
It starts the day you sign up. You have already sent me a Private Message (PM) requesting entry to the Automated Tracker, but you need to include an email address. We only recognize the returns of members who enter their TSP IFTs and allocations in our Automated Tracker. Read the Automated Tracker Rules in my signature. Create a "optionman’s Account Talk" thread in our Members' Account Talk forum (click).
This challenge thread should be moved to your "optionman’s Account Talk" thread. Members then will have a single location to read your feedback, thoughts, and reasons for making the IFT moves. It’s required once you join the Automated Tracker. We also suggest that new members open an account talk thread to post their thoughts, and questions on the markets. This adds to their post count, and then they are ready to join Automated Tracker once then have the ten posts.
It starts the day you sign up. You have already sent me a Private Message (PM) requesting entry to the Automated Tracker, but you need to include an email address. We only recognize the returns of members who enter their TSP IFTs and allocations in our Automated Tracker. Read the Automated Tracker Rules in my signature. Create a "optionman’s Account Talk" thread in our Members' Account Talk forum (click).
This challenge thread should be moved to your "optionman’s Account Talk" thread. Members then will have a single location to read your feedback, thoughts, and reasons for making the IFT moves. It’s required once you join the Automated Tracker. We also suggest that new members open an account talk thread to post their thoughts, and questions on the markets. This adds to their post count, and then they are ready to join Automated Tracker once then have the ten posts.
Technician--Thanks, I will be signing up either today or tommorow for autotracker, I haven't looked into it so I'm not sure if tracking my account begins on the first day of 2008 or the day I sign up, in anycase, my positions will be in autotracker very soon.
optionman
IFT to 100% S Fund
The market opened slightly higher, not as high as I would like to have seen, but with the probabilities higher for at least short term bounce up here I moved from 100% G fund to 100% S fund.
My bond signal remains on a buy but it is weakening.
My Stock fund signal remains on a sell, but it is gaining strength and since the probabilities suggest we will see a bounce up from here and a strong up move for a few days will pull the signal into submssion I made the move.
Follow the money!
optionman
The market opened slightly higher, not as high as I would like to have seen, but with the probabilities higher for at least short term bounce up here I moved from 100% G fund to 100% S fund.
My bond signal remains on a buy but it is weakening.
My Stock fund signal remains on a sell, but it is gaining strength and since the probabilities suggest we will see a bounce up from here and a strong up move for a few days will pull the signal into submssion I made the move.
Follow the money!
optionman
Capitulation?
All stock funds remain on a sell signal, but my S and C funds indicators are getting more bullish.
The bond fund remains on a buy signal, but the signal is weakening.
SPX closed even further below its 20 day EMA creating an even stronger probability of bouncing up from here at least for the short term. I mentioned in my post yesterday that I expect the bounce to pull my stock fund signal into submission and put it on a buy. The possibility of this happening now is even stronger.
I believe we’re getting just what the market needed, a good old fashion panic driven, run for the hills type of capitulation sell off. VIX finally spiked up supporting this analysis.
I am 100% S fund as of the close 17 Jan 08.
Follow the money!
optionman
All stock funds remain on a sell signal, but my S and C funds indicators are getting more bullish.
The bond fund remains on a buy signal, but the signal is weakening.
SPX closed even further below its 20 day EMA creating an even stronger probability of bouncing up from here at least for the short term. I mentioned in my post yesterday that I expect the bounce to pull my stock fund signal into submission and put it on a buy. The possibility of this happening now is even stronger.
I believe we’re getting just what the market needed, a good old fashion panic driven, run for the hills type of capitulation sell off. VIX finally spiked up supporting this analysis.
I am 100% S fund as of the close 17 Jan 08.
Follow the money!
optionman
Re: Capitulation?
Thanks for posting this info. I keep reading with interest what your indicators are saying. Are you able to receive readings 3 or 4 times during the trading day? If so, I urge you to post them ASAP. Thanks again!
Thanks for posting this info. I keep reading with interest what your indicators are saying. Are you able to receive readings 3 or 4 times during the trading day? If so, I urge you to post them ASAP. Thanks again!
All stock funds remain on a sell signal, but my S and C funds indicators are getting more bullish.
The bond fund remains on a buy signal, but the signal is weakening.
SPX closed even further below its 20 day EMA creating an even stronger probability of bouncing up from here at least for the short term. I mentioned in my post yesterday that I expect the bounce to pull my stock fund signal into submission and put it on a buy. The possibility of this happening now is even stronger.
I believe we’re getting just what the market needed, a good old fashion panic driven, run for the hills type of capitulation sell off. VIX finally spiked up supporting this analysis.
I am 100% S fund as of the close 17 Jan 08.
Follow the money!
optionman
Re: Capitulation?
Airlift--Unfortunaley my indicators are based on end of day data so I normally only post after the market closes. Occassionally if the market gets to an extreme and I decide to make an IFT anticipating my system to pull my signal into submission as I did yesterday, I will post it prior to or near the market open, but more often than not it will be after the close.
optionman
Thanks for posting this info. I keep reading with interest what your indicators are saying. Are you able to receive readings 3 or 4 times during the trading day? If so, I urge you to post them ASAP. Thanks again!
Airlift--Unfortunaley my indicators are based on end of day data so I normally only post after the market closes. Occassionally if the market gets to an extreme and I decide to make an IFT anticipating my system to pull my signal into submission as I did yesterday, I will post it prior to or near the market open, but more often than not it will be after the close.
optionman
Bear market or capitulation?
A terrible weak in stock funds no doubt.Things look bleak for sure as bearish sentiment and pessimism grow. Are we entering a bear market? Most seem to believe so and are running for cover, but I’m not convinced, at least not yet. I believe we’re experiencing a market bottom capitulation where the weak hands are throwing in the towel and setting us up for a rally, at least a short term rally, then we will need to see if it can turn into something more meaningful. Contrary bullish indications that support this analysis are below. A lot of technical damage will have to be overcome to swing us back into rally mode. I mentioned a few days ago that although the stock fund signals remain on a sell I expect a rally to pull them into submission and move them to a buy. I still expect this to happen and soon. However, if we rally as expected but the rally does not pull the signals into submission I will look to sell into strength and reposition accordingly. Contrary bullish indications:
AAII Bullish/Bearish% above 55%
Breadth capitulation on 10 Jan when the NHNL on both the NYSE and NAZ were at extremes.
Market sell off capitulation Thursday 17 Jan evidenced by the spike in the VIX
Although not a contrary indicator, the 10 year decennial pattern supports a reversal also (see previous post)
I mentioned in my last few posts that the SPX has been closing way below its 20 day EMA and probabilities are that it would rally. This remains true and will likely culminate in a “rubber band effect” meaning the close is so far below its 20 day EMA that it will likely shoot up. Until proven wrong I remain bullish, after all someone has to be bullish with all the bears out there.
Regardless of my personal opinion on market direction, I rely on my propriety trading system signals for TSP fund positions and allocations. In some situations when a signal reversal is anticipated positions are taken counter to the signal.
Fund Signals:
C: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
S: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
I: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
F: Buy, signal date 27 Dec 07
Signal Notes: All stock funds remain on a sell signals, but the S and C fund signals are getting more bullish.
The bond fund remains on a buy signal, but the signal is weakening.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 – 15 Jan 08 (while many folks were in stock funds getting hammered)
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 (sold bonds into strength anticipating a market capitulation and reversal)
100% S fund 17 Jan 08--(Capitulation bottom reversal?) Auto-tracker began tracking position on 17 Jan 08
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
A terrible weak in stock funds no doubt.Things look bleak for sure as bearish sentiment and pessimism grow. Are we entering a bear market? Most seem to believe so and are running for cover, but I’m not convinced, at least not yet. I believe we’re experiencing a market bottom capitulation where the weak hands are throwing in the towel and setting us up for a rally, at least a short term rally, then we will need to see if it can turn into something more meaningful. Contrary bullish indications that support this analysis are below. A lot of technical damage will have to be overcome to swing us back into rally mode. I mentioned a few days ago that although the stock fund signals remain on a sell I expect a rally to pull them into submission and move them to a buy. I still expect this to happen and soon. However, if we rally as expected but the rally does not pull the signals into submission I will look to sell into strength and reposition accordingly. Contrary bullish indications:
AAII Bullish/Bearish% above 55%
Breadth capitulation on 10 Jan when the NHNL on both the NYSE and NAZ were at extremes.
Market sell off capitulation Thursday 17 Jan evidenced by the spike in the VIX
Although not a contrary indicator, the 10 year decennial pattern supports a reversal also (see previous post)
I mentioned in my last few posts that the SPX has been closing way below its 20 day EMA and probabilities are that it would rally. This remains true and will likely culminate in a “rubber band effect” meaning the close is so far below its 20 day EMA that it will likely shoot up. Until proven wrong I remain bullish, after all someone has to be bullish with all the bears out there.
Regardless of my personal opinion on market direction, I rely on my propriety trading system signals for TSP fund positions and allocations. In some situations when a signal reversal is anticipated positions are taken counter to the signal.
Fund Signals:
C: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
S: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
I: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
F: Buy, signal date 27 Dec 07
Signal Notes: All stock funds remain on a sell signals, but the S and C fund signals are getting more bullish.
The bond fund remains on a buy signal, but the signal is weakening.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 – 15 Jan 08 (while many folks were in stock funds getting hammered)
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 (sold bonds into strength anticipating a market capitulation and reversal)
100% S fund 17 Jan 08--(Capitulation bottom reversal?) Auto-tracker began tracking position on 17 Jan 08
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
Capitulation Climax or bear market?
We witnessed a pretty scary day yesterday with futures deep in the red before the open. I mentioned in my post yesterday (in day to day market talk) that gentle Ben would need to come in with a .75 – 1.00 basis point interest rate cut to stem the blood flow. About an hour before the open he came through and the futures began to rise as expected, then they unexpectedly began falling again and we opened significantly lower anyway, but we probably averted a mini crash.
Many sold into this panic. I don’t like the idea of selling into a panic and will normally wait for a better exit which in most cases presents itself shortly after a sell off like this. I believe we are experiencing somewhat of an over reaction to our current economic situation. Yes our economy is in bad shape and it may take some time to repair but it’s not falling apart. It’s just going to take some time and maybe a little creativity to turn around.
My signals remain on a sell for the stock funds, but as I’ve mentioned in my previous posts, the market is extremely oversold and I’ve been trying to catch a capitulation bottom. At this point I’m considering the possibility that we are witnessing a climax to the capitulation and may be able to move up from here, at least short term.
We had a market sell off last Thursday and a strong futures sell off yesterday pushing the market down hard at the open, but it was able to manage closing well off its lows. This is very encouraging. We also have a kangaroo tail pattern which more times than not portends a reversal.
The next few days should give a better idea of market direction. I’m expecting a strong up move, but then I’ve been expecting that for a few days now and it hasn’t happened yet. If we get the up move as expected, we need to see if it leads to a change in the momentum or if it’s a bear trap. I’ll be watching 2 resistance points on the SPX; 1380, then 1410-1420 very closely. If the SPX can convincingly overcome these resistance points, it should pull my short term signals into a buy and I will remain in my position, however, if it appears to be stalling at either of them, it would suggest we may see lower lows soon after and I will reposition accordingly based on signals at that point.
Talk is beginning about what the FOMC will do next Tuesday at their scheduled meeting. At this point it could be anything from no rate cut at all to cutting another .25 or .50 basis points, it’s hard to tell since they just made this huge cut and it’s so close. I wouldn’t be surprised either way, if they stand pat or raise. Unfortunately if the market believes another cut is priced in and we don’t get it, it could be a time bomb waiting to explode.
Regardless of my personal opinion on market direction, I rely on my propriety trading system signals for TSP fund positions and allocations. In some situations when a signal reversal is anticipated positions are taken counter to the signal.
Fund Signals:
C: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
S: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
I: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
F: Buy, signal date 27 Dec 07
Signal Notes: All stock funds remain on a sell signals, but the S and C fund signals are getting more bullish.
The bond fund remains on a buy signal, but the signal is weakening.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 – 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%} (while many folks were in stock funds getting hammered)
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%} (sold bonds into strength anticipating a market capitulation and reversal)
100% S fund 17 Jan 08—{??} (Capitulation bottom reversal?) Auto-tracker began tracking position on 17 Jan 08
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
We witnessed a pretty scary day yesterday with futures deep in the red before the open. I mentioned in my post yesterday (in day to day market talk) that gentle Ben would need to come in with a .75 – 1.00 basis point interest rate cut to stem the blood flow. About an hour before the open he came through and the futures began to rise as expected, then they unexpectedly began falling again and we opened significantly lower anyway, but we probably averted a mini crash.
Many sold into this panic. I don’t like the idea of selling into a panic and will normally wait for a better exit which in most cases presents itself shortly after a sell off like this. I believe we are experiencing somewhat of an over reaction to our current economic situation. Yes our economy is in bad shape and it may take some time to repair but it’s not falling apart. It’s just going to take some time and maybe a little creativity to turn around.
My signals remain on a sell for the stock funds, but as I’ve mentioned in my previous posts, the market is extremely oversold and I’ve been trying to catch a capitulation bottom. At this point I’m considering the possibility that we are witnessing a climax to the capitulation and may be able to move up from here, at least short term.
We had a market sell off last Thursday and a strong futures sell off yesterday pushing the market down hard at the open, but it was able to manage closing well off its lows. This is very encouraging. We also have a kangaroo tail pattern which more times than not portends a reversal.
The next few days should give a better idea of market direction. I’m expecting a strong up move, but then I’ve been expecting that for a few days now and it hasn’t happened yet. If we get the up move as expected, we need to see if it leads to a change in the momentum or if it’s a bear trap. I’ll be watching 2 resistance points on the SPX; 1380, then 1410-1420 very closely. If the SPX can convincingly overcome these resistance points, it should pull my short term signals into a buy and I will remain in my position, however, if it appears to be stalling at either of them, it would suggest we may see lower lows soon after and I will reposition accordingly based on signals at that point.
Talk is beginning about what the FOMC will do next Tuesday at their scheduled meeting. At this point it could be anything from no rate cut at all to cutting another .25 or .50 basis points, it’s hard to tell since they just made this huge cut and it’s so close. I wouldn’t be surprised either way, if they stand pat or raise. Unfortunately if the market believes another cut is priced in and we don’t get it, it could be a time bomb waiting to explode.
Regardless of my personal opinion on market direction, I rely on my propriety trading system signals for TSP fund positions and allocations. In some situations when a signal reversal is anticipated positions are taken counter to the signal.
Fund Signals:
C: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
S: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
I: Sell, signal date 17 Dec 07
F: Buy, signal date 27 Dec 07
Signal Notes: All stock funds remain on a sell signals, but the S and C fund signals are getting more bullish.
The bond fund remains on a buy signal, but the signal is weakening.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 – 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%} (while many folks were in stock funds getting hammered)
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%} (sold bonds into strength anticipating a market capitulation and reversal)
100% S fund 17 Jan 08—{??} (Capitulation bottom reversal?) Auto-tracker began tracking position on 17 Jan 08
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
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