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optionman's Account Talk
- Thread starter optionman
- Start date
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mojo--Thanks! I appreciate the comments. I'll be posting my market review comments for yesterday in just a minute.
optionman
Reversal or bear trap?
Market Posture:
SPX = Bull Market
NAZ = Bear Market
Here’s a snapshot of what I'm seeing with yesterday’s close:
The SPX moved up to the 20 day MA yesterday but the bulls couldn’t keep it there and it fell back below its resistance at 1350, we have a very short term price/volume bearish divergence. The 60 minute chart shows a possible bearish H&S pattern forming with the neckline at 1330, very near the 1325 support level. We are still in a tight range here and will likely see break out today or tomorrow. The question remains will the break out be north or south. My stock fund signals remain on a sell, but another up day would likely cause them to become neutral or if we get a strong up day they could move to a buy. Unfortunately, my market analysis continues to suggest we are in for more downward movement, thus my bias remains bearish until proven wrong.
I remain100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08 waiting for a reversal signal or extreme bottom in which conditions and probabilities for an up move are in our favor for an entry point.
Signals:
Stock Funds: Sell effective 8 Feb 08.
Bond Fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund looks weak here. The F is on a sell and still looks a little weak here, but is starting to show some signs of a possible reversal, will be watching it closely for clues.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
IFT History 2008: (see previous posts for when IFTs were made)
# of IFTs Jan 2008 = 3 (G-S-G, within 2.5 limit), Feb 2008 = 0 YTD = 3
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Market Posture:
SPX = Bull Market
NAZ = Bear Market
Here’s a snapshot of what I'm seeing with yesterday’s close:
The SPX moved up to the 20 day MA yesterday but the bulls couldn’t keep it there and it fell back below its resistance at 1350, we have a very short term price/volume bearish divergence. The 60 minute chart shows a possible bearish H&S pattern forming with the neckline at 1330, very near the 1325 support level. We are still in a tight range here and will likely see break out today or tomorrow. The question remains will the break out be north or south. My stock fund signals remain on a sell, but another up day would likely cause them to become neutral or if we get a strong up day they could move to a buy. Unfortunately, my market analysis continues to suggest we are in for more downward movement, thus my bias remains bearish until proven wrong.
I remain100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08 waiting for a reversal signal or extreme bottom in which conditions and probabilities for an up move are in our favor for an entry point.
Signals:
Stock Funds: Sell effective 8 Feb 08.
Bond Fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund looks weak here. The F is on a sell and still looks a little weak here, but is starting to show some signs of a possible reversal, will be watching it closely for clues.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
IFT History 2008: (see previous posts for when IFTs were made)
# of IFTs Jan 2008 = 3 (G-S-G, within 2.5 limit), Feb 2008 = 0 YTD = 3
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Break out!
Market Posture:
SPX = Bull Market
NAZ = Bear Market
We finally broke out of the range as expected and fortunately for those in the stock funds we broke to the upside. My signals moved to more of a neutral stance but are still leaning towards the bearish side. SPX closed just above its 20 day EMA, now we will want to see it hold and begin pulling the 20 day EMA upward and then break through the next level of resistance in the 1375-1380 area. Volume was OK but not great and a bearish price/volume divergence is still present. My market analysis suggests we may still see a downward move from here and I don’t want to get caught in a potential bear trap so I’ll continue to wait on the sidelines for a little longer.
I remain100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08 waiting for a reversal signal or extreme bottom in which conditions and probabilities for an up move are in our favor for an entry.
Signals:
Stock Funds: Sell effective 8 Feb 08. (moved to more of a neutral stance today but I will keep it as a sell until it reverses)
Bond Fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08. (strong down day today, bonds remain on a sell)
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund looks weak here. The F is on a sell and still looks a little weak here.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
IFT History 2008: (see previous posts for when IFTs were made)
Jan 2008: 3 IFTs G-S-G (within 2.5 limit if imposed upon us)
Feb 2008: 0 IFTs
YTD = 3
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Market Posture:
SPX = Bull Market
NAZ = Bear Market
We finally broke out of the range as expected and fortunately for those in the stock funds we broke to the upside. My signals moved to more of a neutral stance but are still leaning towards the bearish side. SPX closed just above its 20 day EMA, now we will want to see it hold and begin pulling the 20 day EMA upward and then break through the next level of resistance in the 1375-1380 area. Volume was OK but not great and a bearish price/volume divergence is still present. My market analysis suggests we may still see a downward move from here and I don’t want to get caught in a potential bear trap so I’ll continue to wait on the sidelines for a little longer.
I remain100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08 waiting for a reversal signal or extreme bottom in which conditions and probabilities for an up move are in our favor for an entry.
Signals:
Stock Funds: Sell effective 8 Feb 08. (moved to more of a neutral stance today but I will keep it as a sell until it reverses)
Bond Fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08. (strong down day today, bonds remain on a sell)
Signal Notes: The S fund appears to be the strongest followed by the C fund. The I fund looks weak here. The F is on a sell and still looks a little weak here.
Trade history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
IFT History 2008: (see previous posts for when IFTs were made)
Jan 2008: 3 IFTs G-S-G (within 2.5 limit if imposed upon us)
Feb 2008: 0 IFTs
YTD = 3
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Break out failure?
Was it a break out or fake out? Looks like it may have been a fake out. The SPX closed back below its 1350 resistance, but just barely. We’re seeing some backing and filling here that could be forming a bottom, but it’s a tough call at this point. The next few days will give a better picture so I’ll continue to wait on the sidelines a little longer.
I remain100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08 waiting for a reversal signal or extreme bottom in which conditions and probabilities for an up move are in our favor for an entry.
Signals:
Stock Funds: Sell effective 8 Feb 08
Bond Fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Was it a break out or fake out? Looks like it may have been a fake out. The SPX closed back below its 1350 resistance, but just barely. We’re seeing some backing and filling here that could be forming a bottom, but it’s a tough call at this point. The next few days will give a better picture so I’ll continue to wait on the sidelines a little longer.
I remain100% G fund as of 24 Jan 08 waiting for a reversal signal or extreme bottom in which conditions and probabilities for an up move are in our favor for an entry.
Signals:
Stock Funds: Sell effective 8 Feb 08
Bond Fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
IFT to 100% S Fund
Moving to 100% S Fund today. Strong potential for a sell off today, but since it's options expiration its hard to tell. In any case my stock fund signals are still neutral but looking better here so I'm going to take the plunge, but I'll be watching closely and be ready to back out quickly if things get worse than anticipated.
optionman
Moving to 100% S Fund today. Strong potential for a sell off today, but since it's options expiration its hard to tell. In any case my stock fund signals are still neutral but looking better here so I'm going to take the plunge, but I'll be watching closely and be ready to back out quickly if things get worse than anticipated.
optionman
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Re: IFT to 100% S Fund
It's funny how it is...I bought in yesterday and made some shares, but now I wish I was not 100% in! People who are out are getting in, people who are in are getting out. :toung:
Moving to 100% S Fund today. Strong potential for a sell off today, but since it's options expiration its hard to tell. In any case my stock fund signals are still neutral but looking better here so I'm going to take the plunge, but I'll be watching closely and be ready to back out quickly if things get worse than anticipated.
optionman
It's funny how it is...I bought in yesterday and made some shares, but now I wish I was not 100% in! People who are out are getting in, people who are in are getting out. :toung:
Re: IFT to 100% S Fund
Corepuncher--Good point, I'm actually hoping for a sell off today that takes us down to the SPX 1325 level. That area seems to be getting stronger as a support point. If we close below that I'll have to see where my signals are and decide if Iwant to stay in or bail. With this being options expiration we could close up also, hard to tell. In any case, I have an "uncle point" and will bail if things get ugly. Good luck my friend.
optionman
Corepuncher--Good point, I'm actually hoping for a sell off today that takes us down to the SPX 1325 level. That area seems to be getting stronger as a support point. If we close below that I'll have to see where my signals are and decide if Iwant to stay in or bail. With this being options expiration we could close up also, hard to tell. In any case, I have an "uncle point" and will bail if things get ugly. Good luck my friend.
optionman
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
just heard on CNBC..."right here you gotta be a seller of time premium" 
Corepuncher
Well-known member
just heard on CNBC..."right here you gotta be a seller of time premium"
What exactly is "time premium"?
just heard on CNBC..."right here you gotta be a seller of time premium"
Futurestrader---Thanks, one of my favorite strategies with options is credit spreads.
optionman
Corepuncher--Time premium deals with option strategies on stock options, futures options and ETF options, doesn't apply to stocks, mutual funds, or TSP funds.
optionman
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
You sell an option you don't own, similar to shorting a stock, betting it expires worthless by options expiration. You collect premium when you sell it, say $.70 for a March S&P 500 1075 put. Each option (put or call, put in this case) on the S&P 500 is based on a $250 contract price, so I just sold 2 March S&P 500 1075s for .70 each. So I 'collected' $.70 x $250 x 2 ea. = $350. I assume the risk that the S&P 500 will not hit 1075 by expiration, March 20th. As time passes, or decays, and gets closer to expiration, the risk decreases, or decays if the market stays the same or doesn't drop to fast. The time decay offsets the rate of change of the market. That $.70 becomes, or expires, worthless at expiration and I keep the $350
Re: IFT to 100% S Fund
Been waiting for your move to follow but missed it today. Got on a plane at 7am in NJ. Maybe I'll catch the next one. Looks like some others followed on tracker. GL
Been waiting for your move to follow but missed it today. Got on a plane at 7am in NJ. Maybe I'll catch the next one. Looks like some others followed on tracker. GL
Moving to 100% S Fund today. Strong potential for a sell off today, but since it's options expiration its hard to tell. In any case my stock fund signals are still neutral but looking better here so I'm going to take the plunge, but I'll be watching closely and be ready to back out quickly if things get worse than anticipated.
optionman
Last edited:
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Thanks for your explanation. If I was not a typical American with a negative savings rate, a big house payment, and too much overall debt, I would be able to invest outside TSP! Ah....livin the good life :cheesy:
Is the bottom in?
My stock fund signals are in a neutral stance, but leaning more to the bullish side and my market analysis suggests we may begin moving higher so I made an IFT Friday morning to 100% S fund.
I generally make my IFTs much earlier and post them on this site, but at the open, the market looked as if it were going to sell off Friday which is what I was expecting, but it managed to eke out a slight gain, at least the SPX did.
Now I’ll be watching to see if the SPX can break through some of its resistance points, the first being 1350. This one doesn’t look to hard to overcome, but the next ones in the 1375-80 area and 1410 area will be the ones I want to see overcome. If we move up as expected but begin stalling at these areas I may hop back out depending on my signals and analysis at that point.
For those of you who keep up with this thread, you know I’ve been expecting a sell off that would take the SPX to the 1250-1260 area. That’s still not out of the question and could still happen, but with the backing and filling that we’ve been seeing we may be witnessing a bottom forming. The SPX has weak support in the 1340 area and stronger support at 1325. Should we begin moving south, I’ll be watching those 2 areas very closely to see if they hold, if not, I may depending on my signals and analysis at the time have to bail.
Bottom Line: The jury is still out on whether we’ve bottomed yet, but if not, perhaps we will get a short rally up from here and look for an exit near a resistance point. Risk mitigation is key here. Although my signals are more bullish and my market analysis suggests the market will move up, it doesn’t have to and could actually go down so I am prepared to act if things go south, don’t want to stick with a losing position. I can always get back in later.
Positions: 100% S fund as of 15 Feb 08
Uncle points: a close below SPX 1325 and/or S fund below $18.04
Signals:
Stock Funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08.
Bond Fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: My stock fund signals are neutral but are more bullish than bearish now, thus I’ve moved them to a buy effective 15 Feb 08.
S: Appears to be the strongest in the stock funds.
C: Looks good here also, but S looks stronger.
I: Will probably move up with the S & C funs, but may not keep up with them.
F: Remains on a sell signal and looks weak here.
TSP history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
IFT History 2008:
Jan 2008 = 3 (G-S-G, within 2.5 limit)
Feb 2008 = 1 (S, within 2.5 limit)
YTD = 4
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
My stock fund signals are in a neutral stance, but leaning more to the bullish side and my market analysis suggests we may begin moving higher so I made an IFT Friday morning to 100% S fund.
I generally make my IFTs much earlier and post them on this site, but at the open, the market looked as if it were going to sell off Friday which is what I was expecting, but it managed to eke out a slight gain, at least the SPX did.
Now I’ll be watching to see if the SPX can break through some of its resistance points, the first being 1350. This one doesn’t look to hard to overcome, but the next ones in the 1375-80 area and 1410 area will be the ones I want to see overcome. If we move up as expected but begin stalling at these areas I may hop back out depending on my signals and analysis at that point.
For those of you who keep up with this thread, you know I’ve been expecting a sell off that would take the SPX to the 1250-1260 area. That’s still not out of the question and could still happen, but with the backing and filling that we’ve been seeing we may be witnessing a bottom forming. The SPX has weak support in the 1340 area and stronger support at 1325. Should we begin moving south, I’ll be watching those 2 areas very closely to see if they hold, if not, I may depending on my signals and analysis at the time have to bail.
Bottom Line: The jury is still out on whether we’ve bottomed yet, but if not, perhaps we will get a short rally up from here and look for an exit near a resistance point. Risk mitigation is key here. Although my signals are more bullish and my market analysis suggests the market will move up, it doesn’t have to and could actually go down so I am prepared to act if things go south, don’t want to stick with a losing position. I can always get back in later.
Positions: 100% S fund as of 15 Feb 08
Uncle points: a close below SPX 1325 and/or S fund below $18.04
Signals:
Stock Funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08.
Bond Fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: My stock fund signals are neutral but are more bullish than bearish now, thus I’ve moved them to a buy effective 15 Feb 08.
S: Appears to be the strongest in the stock funds.
C: Looks good here also, but S looks stronger.
I: Will probably move up with the S & C funs, but may not keep up with them.
F: Remains on a sell signal and looks weak here.
TSP history 2008:
100% F fund 27 Dec 07 - 15 Jan 08 {+1.85%}
100% G fund 15 Jan 08 - 17 Jan 08 {0%}
See autotracker for results and performance beginning 17 Jan 07.
IFT History 2008:
Jan 2008 = 3 (G-S-G, within 2.5 limit)
Feb 2008 = 1 (S, within 2.5 limit)
YTD = 4
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
dickster--Yeah I'm still hear. Just lurking in the shadows. Decided to tone down my commentary just a bit and just post changes to my signals or IFTs I make. May begin posting a little more this weekend. Thanks for staying tuned.
By the way my stock fund signals remain on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell.
I remain 100% in the S fund.
optionman
Bulls and bears fighting it out
The SPX is in a trading range between 1340-1365. We broke below it Friday, but the last hour rally put us back in the middle of it. We will likely break out of it in the next few days, which direction is still in question. 1325 continues to act as a strong support. If we break to the downside I’ll be watching to see if it holds, if not, I’ll consider throwing in the towel, but that will depend on my market analysis and signals at that point if it happens. The last hour rally across the board on Friday was impressive and encouraging and we could move up form here. My stock fund signals and analysis suggest there’s a stronger possibility we move up from here.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: The C and S funds both look strong here. The I fund will likely move up in lockstep with the market, but may not keep pace with C or S funds. The bond fund remains on a sell.
Positions:
TSP: 100% S fund as of 15 Feb, stop = S fund below $18.04/SPX close below 1325
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a QQQQ close below $43.41
My signals and market analysis suggest the market will move in favor of my position, but as always it is possible that it may move against my position in which case I have a predetermined exit point.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
The SPX is in a trading range between 1340-1365. We broke below it Friday, but the last hour rally put us back in the middle of it. We will likely break out of it in the next few days, which direction is still in question. 1325 continues to act as a strong support. If we break to the downside I’ll be watching to see if it holds, if not, I’ll consider throwing in the towel, but that will depend on my market analysis and signals at that point if it happens. The last hour rally across the board on Friday was impressive and encouraging and we could move up form here. My stock fund signals and analysis suggest there’s a stronger possibility we move up from here.
Signals: Stock funds: Buy effective 15 Feb 08. Bond fund: Sell effective 29 Jan 08.
Signal Notes: The C and S funds both look strong here. The I fund will likely move up in lockstep with the market, but may not keep pace with C or S funds. The bond fund remains on a sell.
Positions:
TSP: 100% S fund as of 15 Feb, stop = S fund below $18.04/SPX close below 1325
Trading Account: Long QLD at $70.86 on 15 Feb, stop = a QQQQ close below $43.41
My signals and market analysis suggest the market will move in favor of my position, but as always it is possible that it may move against my position in which case I have a predetermined exit point.
Follow the money or follow the herd!
optionman
“Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
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