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optionman's Account Talk
- Thread starter optionman
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Uptrend
Well-known member
From the same Bloomburg article:
"Dealers have been burned before when building up a big bet against Treasures. They established a record negative position on Treasuries totaling $194 billion on July 18. Within a month the Fed began lowering its discount rate as credit markets froze on evidence that subprime mortgage losses were spreading.
The Fed is signaling that the financial markets are still broken. Policy makers announced a plan on May 2 to increase their auctions of cash to banks and expanded the collateral the Fed takes from bond dealers, acting in concert with European central banks to alleviate persistent strains in credit markets."
IMHO follow the technicals and don't be so reactionary. The technicals are telling us a bounce is coming. Both AGG and $AKG look ok. I would like to see AGG stay above the 20 and 50 dma, but we shall see. I believe a summation failure may be coming to the market soon. The turn date is very near. When that happens, then there will be risk aversion to bonds and a big bounce.
"Dealers have been burned before when building up a big bet against Treasures. They established a record negative position on Treasuries totaling $194 billion on July 18. Within a month the Fed began lowering its discount rate as credit markets froze on evidence that subprime mortgage losses were spreading.
The Fed is signaling that the financial markets are still broken. Policy makers announced a plan on May 2 to increase their auctions of cash to banks and expanded the collateral the Fed takes from bond dealers, acting in concert with European central banks to alleviate persistent strains in credit markets."
IMHO follow the technicals and don't be so reactionary. The technicals are telling us a bounce is coming. Both AGG and $AKG look ok. I would like to see AGG stay above the 20 and 50 dma, but we shall see. I believe a summation failure may be coming to the market soon. The turn date is very near. When that happens, then there will be risk aversion to bonds and a big bounce.
Silverbird
Well-known member
G fund - cannot go negative. Based on FED rate I think?
luv2read
Active member
It can't go negative, but the lower the interest rate goes (yield?), the longer it takes for G fund to post a gain...7-8 days now as opposed to 3-5 days previously.
I think you are right that it's based on FED rate, but it's still tied to treasuries somehow. G fund is in treasuries.
Optionman,
Thanks again for posting your move. I understand your reasons to move to the G fund but I am surprised that you are using one of your two moves for the month this early and back to the G fund. If I understand the IFT rules, this will only allow one more move into other than G for the month and unlimited retreats back into the G after that move. I know you have been living with the two IFT limit but surprised of the early IFT into the G that counts just like a move into any of the other funds. Good luck and wishing you the best, but just wanted to double check if I do understand the new IFT limitations correctly or you were that worry about the F fund right now? Thanks, Steve
Thanks again for posting your move. I understand your reasons to move to the G fund but I am surprised that you are using one of your two moves for the month this early and back to the G fund. If I understand the IFT rules, this will only allow one more move into other than G for the month and unlimited retreats back into the G after that move. I know you have been living with the two IFT limit but surprised of the early IFT into the G that counts just like a move into any of the other funds. Good luck and wishing you the best, but just wanted to double check if I do understand the new IFT limitations correctly or you were that worry about the F fund right now? Thanks, Steve
hessian
Member
Hi Steve,
The fact that he went to "all G" on his 2nd move (or 1st move for that matter) - means he's done, for May - ride the G for a couple weeks - no more moves. THAT SHOULD SAY ALOT in itself!
L-Income is 75% G, so essentially I'm done for the month too. Each person has to make their choices (some are still in/"believers", but others think many think lower prices might be ahead - either way, this idea of limiting transfers is going to cost us all alot in retirement! If we can even afford to retire -VERY costly.
Bond fund discussion
Bond fund discussion
First I would like to thank all for your questions and comments about my IFT to the G fund yesterday. I’ll attempt to reply to the questions or comments below but, let me first say my decision to move from the F fund to the G fund was based on chart characteristics as I mentioned in my weekend update (see post# 191). Last week AGG was looking much better and my signal moved to a buy as expected shortly after entering (see post#188), but now the chart characteristics suggest it will move to a sell again soon so I made my move.
Now on to the comments/questions. Hope you don’t mind if I answer all in one post rather than individually.
Braveheart---Thanks for posting and keeping us aware of what is happening at Barclays.
Silverbird---Thanks for posting your take as well.
Airlift---You’re right, I use technical analysis on charts and seldom use fundamental data. Charts give a visual representation on what’s happening; an open-high-low and closing price, moving averages, channels etc. that cannot be manipulated. Most fundamental data can be manipulated or a positive spin put on bad conditions, so I generally stick to my charts. Some do well using it fundamental data in their trading. I just prefer charts.
luv2read---I don’t believe it will have an impact one way or the other on the G fund, but could be wrong here. I’m guessing the G fund will continue to get the one penny every week. What I have noticed is that they used to give it once every 5 work days sometimes 6, it now seems like every 6 to 7.
Uptrend---You could be right and we may see a bounce but my analysis suggests bonds are headed down so I remain 100% G for now. Thanks for posting.
SteveTSP---Thanks for the comments. Moving to the G fund yesterday was my first IFT for May. I anticipate my next move will be into stock funds, but I want to see how things shake out for the next few days before I make a move so I remain 100% G for now.
DCguy---Thanks for posting.
Luv2read---on the question about going to the L income fund. That’s actually a good point, but does not allow me to monitor the position via charts so I would not be to interested. I like monitoring my positions daily but it is something to consider in the future if I were just wanting to move for a few days until things cleared up. Thanks for posting
TSP: YTD +7.75% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 5 May 08.
The market appears to be holding up pretty well here, but it still has the potential to swing either way so I’ll remain 100% G fund for now.
ETF: YTD -12.73% Position: No position
Although not an ETF I may short CEGE today at the open if we get a flat to slightly up or down open.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Bond fund discussion
First I would like to thank all for your questions and comments about my IFT to the G fund yesterday. I’ll attempt to reply to the questions or comments below but, let me first say my decision to move from the F fund to the G fund was based on chart characteristics as I mentioned in my weekend update (see post# 191). Last week AGG was looking much better and my signal moved to a buy as expected shortly after entering (see post#188), but now the chart characteristics suggest it will move to a sell again soon so I made my move.
Now on to the comments/questions. Hope you don’t mind if I answer all in one post rather than individually.
Braveheart---Thanks for posting and keeping us aware of what is happening at Barclays.
Silverbird---Thanks for posting your take as well.
Airlift---You’re right, I use technical analysis on charts and seldom use fundamental data. Charts give a visual representation on what’s happening; an open-high-low and closing price, moving averages, channels etc. that cannot be manipulated. Most fundamental data can be manipulated or a positive spin put on bad conditions, so I generally stick to my charts. Some do well using it fundamental data in their trading. I just prefer charts.
luv2read---I don’t believe it will have an impact one way or the other on the G fund, but could be wrong here. I’m guessing the G fund will continue to get the one penny every week. What I have noticed is that they used to give it once every 5 work days sometimes 6, it now seems like every 6 to 7.
Uptrend---You could be right and we may see a bounce but my analysis suggests bonds are headed down so I remain 100% G for now. Thanks for posting.
SteveTSP---Thanks for the comments. Moving to the G fund yesterday was my first IFT for May. I anticipate my next move will be into stock funds, but I want to see how things shake out for the next few days before I make a move so I remain 100% G for now.
DCguy---Thanks for posting.
Luv2read---on the question about going to the L income fund. That’s actually a good point, but does not allow me to monitor the position via charts so I would not be to interested. I like monitoring my positions daily but it is something to consider in the future if I were just wanting to move for a few days until things cleared up. Thanks for posting
TSP: YTD +7.75% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 5 May 08.
The market appears to be holding up pretty well here, but it still has the potential to swing either way so I’ll remain 100% G fund for now.
ETF: YTD -12.73% Position: No position
Although not an ETF I may short CEGE today at the open if we get a flat to slightly up or down open.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Update
TSP: YTD +7.75% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 5 May 08.
SPX appears to be holding up pretty well here, but still has the potential to swing either way so I remain 100% G fund.
STOCK/ETF: YTD -0.12% Position: Short CEGE
Shorted CEGE at the open for $4.28. Target $3.25, moving stop to $4.10 today.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
TSP: YTD +7.75% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 5 May 08.
SPX appears to be holding up pretty well here, but still has the potential to swing either way so I remain 100% G fund.
STOCK/ETF: YTD -0.12% Position: Short CEGE
Shorted CEGE at the open for $4.28. Target $3.25, moving stop to $4.10 today.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
TSP: YTD +7.75% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 5 May 08.
IMO the market could still swing either way so I remain 100% G fund.
STOCK/ETF: YTD +4.79% Position: Short UTIW
I closed my short CEGE position at the open yesterday for $3.53; profit = 17.52% It was somewhat of a surprise to see this one move so far so fast bringing my trading account back into the green.
After closing my CEGE position I shorted UTIW for $22.09. My stop is $22.52. I could get shaken out of this one, but if it breaks support at $22.00 it will likely drop fast to $21.00 or perhaps my target of $20.00. If it doesn’t break support in the next day or so and doesn’t stop me out I’ll bail.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
IMO the market could still swing either way so I remain 100% G fund.
STOCK/ETF: YTD +4.79% Position: Short UTIW
I closed my short CEGE position at the open yesterday for $3.53; profit = 17.52% It was somewhat of a surprise to see this one move so far so fast bringing my trading account back into the green.
After closing my CEGE position I shorted UTIW for $22.09. My stop is $22.52. I could get shaken out of this one, but if it breaks support at $22.00 it will likely drop fast to $21.00 or perhaps my target of $20.00. If it doesn’t break support in the next day or so and doesn’t stop me out I’ll bail.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Braveheart
Member
TSP: YTD +7.75% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 5 May 08.
IMO the market could still swing either way so I remain 100% G fund.
STOCK/ETF: YTD +4.79% Position: Short UTIW
I closed my short CEGE position at the open yesterday for $3.53; profit = 17.52% It was somewhat of a surprise to see this one move so far so fast bringing my trading account back into the green.
After closing my CEGE position I shorted UTIW for $22.09. My stop is $22.52. I could get shaken out of this one, but if it breaks support at $22.00 it will likely drop fast to $21.00 or perhaps my target of $20.00. If it doesn’t break support in the next day or so and doesn’t stop me out I’ll bail.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
Nice quick hit - Good for you !!!
I see a very bad day coming today as in possibly one of the worst of the year. Looking at the futures and financial problems all over the globe this could be a -300 day easy for the Dow Jones could see below 12,600. JMO
luv2read
Active member
LOL! Nothing different today from a month ago except price of oil is higher....April was all blow and go...ignoring the real world. Happy for all of you who made profits in that little bear rally. Look out below, here comes the bottom.
Lots of profit taking today and lots of little guys who have been salivating on sidelines will jump in because they don't want to "miss out" anymore so IMO early down, then level off with a big drop at end of day. Then again, the bull is still strong and buy signals are there, and economy has been ignored this long. I've been wrong before.
Lots of profit taking today and lots of little guys who have been salivating on sidelines will jump in because they don't want to "miss out" anymore so IMO early down, then level off with a big drop at end of day. Then again, the bull is still strong and buy signals are there, and economy has been ignored this long. I've been wrong before.
Last edited:
TSP: YTD +7.75% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 5 May 08.
SPX remains in a position where its next big move could be in either direction. If it doesn’t sell off in the next few days the next big hurdle will be its 200 day ma. When it begins closing above its 200 day ma we should see a strong up move accompanied by decent volume. However, if it bounces, stalls and then reverses and begins closing below 1380 all bets are off as that would likely lead to a strong down move. We will likely see a strong move in one direction or the other soon and at this point I’m a bit more bearish than bullish so I remain 100% G fund.
STOCK/ETF: YTD +5.69% Position: Short UTIW @ $22.09
UTIW closed just below strong support at $22.00 and has the potential to move much lower soon. It continues to look good as a short position here so I’ll hold it with a target of $20.00 and a stop of $22.52. I could still get shaken out of it, but I’m willing to give it a little room here.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
SPX remains in a position where its next big move could be in either direction. If it doesn’t sell off in the next few days the next big hurdle will be its 200 day ma. When it begins closing above its 200 day ma we should see a strong up move accompanied by decent volume. However, if it bounces, stalls and then reverses and begins closing below 1380 all bets are off as that would likely lead to a strong down move. We will likely see a strong move in one direction or the other soon and at this point I’m a bit more bearish than bullish so I remain 100% G fund.
STOCK/ETF: YTD +5.69% Position: Short UTIW @ $22.09
UTIW closed just below strong support at $22.00 and has the potential to move much lower soon. It continues to look good as a short position here so I’ll hold it with a target of $20.00 and a stop of $22.52. I could still get shaken out of it, but I’m willing to give it a little room here.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
FogSailing
Well-known member
Hi Optionman:
I enjoy your postings. Thank You. Just one question: I was wondering why you have chosen G over F as your investment choice at this time?
Thanks
FS
I enjoy your postings. Thank You. Just one question: I was wondering why you have chosen G over F as your investment choice at this time?
Thanks
FS
FS--Thanks! My decision to be in the G vs. F fund is purely technical. The bonds (AGG) have been mired in a $101.50-$103.00 trading range since the begining of this year and just keep bouncing around in it. They could move either way from here but at this point I'm more bearish than bullish on bonds so I remain in the G fund.
optionman
To add something, since we are in a recessionary mode and the FED is providing liquidity, wouldn't the F fund be a better alternative? I know that there is also inflation to contend with, but the economy is still very fragile, if not broken. I might be wrong, but I don't think the FED is ready to raise rates yet; not before seeing a more clear or promising recovery. CNBC just reported that the housing problems are expected to be extended through 2009 -- raising rates would probably throw the economy into a downward spiral. Frankly, I don't see any excellent choices, but I don't believe that the FED is ready to return the economy to the time before they started to lower rates and to provide liquidity. Just my opinion.
airlift--Thanks. Perhaps the F fund will turn out to be better, but I just don't like it or stocks at least not in the short term so I remain in the G fund.
optionman
TSP: YTD +7.84% Position/Allocation: 100% G fund as of 5 May 08.
No change to weekend update.
STOCK/ETF: YTD +5.78% Position: Short UTIW @ $22.09
UTIW moved lower yesterday but was able to rebound and move up strongly so I plan to close my short position out at or near the open today.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
No change to weekend update.
STOCK/ETF: YTD +5.78% Position: Short UTIW @ $22.09
UTIW moved lower yesterday but was able to rebound and move up strongly so I plan to close my short position out at or near the open today.
optionman
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Ed Seykota
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