oleg850's Account Talk

[Luke]

In some NUGT at $33.50, looking at a $40-$45 price target.

Oleg, did you dabble in some more NUGT today?

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

Indicator system remains firmly short and trending system remains long.

Good weekend everyone!

 

[oleg850]

In some NUGT at $33.50, looking at a $40-$45 price target.

Oleg, did you dabble in some more NUGT today?

No, it was a typical range day for the miners. If NUGT can close above $36, I think it has a straight shot to $40+. I won't dollar cost average unless it drops a minimum of 10% from these levels (unlikely IMHO).

 

[oleg850]

Doubled down on NUGT as per my earlier post at $30.23.

 

[WhoDey]

Nice move adding to your NUGT position today.

 

[WhoDey]

Oleg ... I would be interested in learning your approach to setting stops on trades. I have done okay in exiting winning trades, but have been crushed this year on losing trades. I don't have good exit strategies.

You doubled down on the current NUGT trade. How do you determine when to hang in there ... even add to your position ... versus exiting a trade in order to stop the bleeding?

 

[clogletn]

Are you still holding SPXU?

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

The indicator system remains firmly SHORT.

Stops for the trending system, which remains LONG for this week are updated as follows:

SPY: $177.90
IWM: $108.80

Those trading leveraged vehicles on the SPY/IWM using this system, like myself (SSO), should use the SPY/IWM stops as a reference to determine exits.

 

[oleg850]

Are you still holding SPXU?

Yes, I will hold it until my indicator system goes LONG. Currently down around 6% from the buy in price ($17.45).

 

[oleg850]

Oleg ... I would be interested in learning your approach to setting stops on trades. I have done okay in exiting winning trades, but have been crushed this year on losing trades. I don't have good exit strategies.

You doubled down on the current NUGT trade. How do you determine when to hang in there ... even add to your position ... versus exiting a trade in order to stop the bleeding?

It's an approach that has taken 3 years to develop and is not something I can easily put into words. Most of my discretionary trades (such as NUGT) have become almost instinctual in nature. Technicals, volume, and momentum play a great deal in determining entries and exits but the most important factor is being patient and jumping in only when the odds are in your favor. Again, trial and error has played a great deal in developing this approach. Regarding cutting losses, the easiest way to do so is not holding onto counter-trend plays. The easiest example of this would be holding NUGT after a big loss in hopes of it rebounding (it's clearly in a downtrend) or holding onto a position that is in a downtrend and bleeds badly (i.e. UVXY, TVIX). When subjecting your money to such risky plays, I cannot stress the importance of conservative position sizing. Wagering only what you are comfortable with losing helps keep emotions away when it comes time to make executive decisions.

 

[WhoDey]

I appreciate the reply. Just as you mention, my largest losses this year been the result of holding onto a counter trend trade too long. If I'm going to trade counter trend, I need to be careful with my position sizing and set tight stops. Some lessons are more expensive than others.

Thanks again for taking the time to share your thoughts.

 

[GEW]

System Update:

The indicator system remains firmly SHORT.

Stops for the trending system, which remains LONG for this week are updated as follows:

SPY: $177.90
IWM: $108.80

Those trading leveraged vehicles on the SPY/IWM using this system, like myself (SSO), should use the SPY/IWM stops as a reference to determine exits.

To make it easier for people that want to have a life and get away from their computer chair is to use "Trade Triggers" with a broker like TD Ameritrade and set the conditions to the "STOPS" as stated (in green). And of course, when the conditions are met, have your market orders set to trigger the sell. This will happen without watching the markets.

When Oleg850 puts out new "STOPS" (if any) when a new "System Update" is posted, don't forget to edit your active "Trade Triggers"!

 

[drtdkidd]

Oleg, any comment on NUGT today?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Oleg, any comment on NUGT today?

Oleg, if I may...

Since he was in at $33.50, he's down -20%. However, today's huge move lower could be reversed beginning tomorrow with a relief rally. Depending on the count, this would be the 7th move lower, which may indicate a bottoming area.

 

[GEW]

Oleg, if I may...

Since he was in at $33.50, he's down -20%. However, today's huge move lower could be reversed beginning tomorrow with a relief rally. Depending on the count, this would be the 7th move lower, which may indicate a bottoming area.

He has it set -10% for another "lot". It is close to another "lot" as well...(-10% down from the previous lot stated). I'm sure he will discuss this in his own words...

 

[oleg850]

Added another lot of NUGT at $27.05. I think I'm done DCA'ing for this trade. Still looking for $40 price target, but will likely start taking partial profits as we move toward that target.

Keep in mind my total capital allotment for this trade is around 3%.

 

[GEW]

GEW Talk Time

I sold NUGT at 8:00am (Eastern Time) and bought DUST at 8:00am (Eastern Time). The reason I decided to do this is because GOLD was -1.00% (or less) in the pre-market. Anytime GOLD is -1.00% (or less) during that time frame, NUGT goes down during that day...When DUST moves higher rapidly, I'll wait till close (MOC)...to buy the opposite which would be NUGT...(Taking a risk for the systems I follow with a little mixture of GEW emotions...) Other words, there's allot of news out there and sometimes this helps when the time is needed...Go figure!

 

[oleg850]

Sold my Dec TSLA calls for a loss, beauty of options however is their tiny position sizing minimizes loss.

 

[oleg850]

I sold NUGT at 8:00am (Eastern Time) and bought DUST at 8:00am (Eastern Time). The reason I decided to do this is because GOLD was -1.00% (or less) in the pre-market. Anytime GOLD is -1.00% (or less) during that time frame, NUGT goes down during that day...When DUST moves higher rapidly, I'll wait till close (MOC)...to buy the opposite which would be NUGT...(Taking a risk for the systems I follow with a little mixture of GEW emotions...) Other words, there's allot of news out there and sometimes this helps when the time is needed...Go figure!

That sounds like a confusing strategy, but if it consistently makes you money, more power to you brother!

 

[oleg850]

Oleg, any comment on NUGT today?

Oleg, if I may...

Since he was in at $33.50, he's down -20%. However, today's huge move lower could be reversed beginning tomorrow with a relief rally. Depending on the count, this would be the 7th move lower, which may indicate a bottoming area.

I'll admit I didn't get the best entry on this trade, but that's just the nature of this game from time to time. The PM indicators that I track are showing more accelerated selling on the down drafts than what we have seen in recent months, which to me is indicative of capitulation. I agree with you that we may be near an intermediate term bottom. I still have a 3 week time horizon on this trade before I'll consider an exit strategy. Currently down around 13% from my DCA price, which we both know can be made up in one day with this ETF.