oleg850's Account Talk

[oleg850]

I appreciate the support guys, I'll keep posting my system and discretionary trades so long as they keep making us money.

Regarding the system signals, both trending and indicator systems will remain long (BUY) going into next week, barring a major sell off this afternoon. I will post the official signal updates shortly after the close.

Hopefully those following have taken at least some partial profits since the initial signal (10/08). I wouldn't be surprised with some across the board profit taking later today, but it's OPEX Friday, so who really knows.

Good weekend everyone!

 

[Luke]

TSP is real money, the only accountable measure of performance within this forum is the Autotracker, are we supposed to believe you are successful in your outside account but not in TSP, that is the point. When we see a trader whose actions don't match up with AT performance it should be mentioned.

Accountable to what measure? I have made several IFTs since summer yet my tracker doesn't reflect that. If the AT was directly piggybacking the TSP and people's moves could be verified, then yes. Perhaps you're missing that Oleg's trades have put money in many people's accounts in a just a short amount of time. That is accountable.

You seem as though you don't need or are above the systems on this site? The reality is your strategy of going S to G to S has netted you well behind the trained monkey ritual of buying and holding YTD. And now you're allocating awkward percentages into G fund while keeping the majority in S? Hell of a strategy boss! It would appear as though your comments towards Oleg are as erratic as your trading style. The ONLY reason you, me, and everyone else comes to this site is to gain knowledge and insight that will hopefully prosper our portfolios, so why don't you just relax and try to learn.

 

[Birchtree]

Luke,

Try not to vilify the buy and holders - they are leading this year. Otherwise you might get 70 inches of snow in Syracuse this winter.

Our board "Cooler" will make friends with oleg850 any time now.

 

[Luke]

Birch, I meant no disrespect. Looking back I did generalize the masses. I mean to say that there is a disparity between investors like you that recognize a multi-year bull market and those dumb luck traders that are making it purely out of laziness. And 70 inches??? Come on brother we average well over a hundred!

I never wanted to turn Oleg's forum into an virtual pugilist match but I felt like the prior comments were uncalled for.

 

[oleg850]

Lots of shorts piling onto the SPY on this ramp up. The closing VIX action should tell us whether it is day traders or those seeking lower prices for next week.

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

Both systems remain Long (Buys). I will post updated stops for the trending system over the weekend.

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

Stops for the trending system for this week are updated as follows:
SPY: $169
IWM: $106.85
TNA: $62.70
SSO: $85.40

Current running profits for these trades are as follows:

Indicator System: since BUY on 10/08 (closing prices):
SPY: 5.4%
IWM: 6.4%
TNA: 19.7% (3X leverage)
SSO: 10.9% (2X leverage)

Trending System: since BUY on 10/11 (closing prices):
SPY: 2.4%
IWM: 2.8%
TNA: 8.3% (3X leverage)
SSO: 4.9% (2X leverage)

Hope everyone had a good weekend!

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

My indicator system is going to CASH as of COB today with a very healthy profit. Sustained selling tomorrow MAY push it to fire off a SHORT signal, but that remains to be seen.

The trending system will remain long until it is stopped out. If the stops are not triggered by COB Friday, they will be adjusted going into next week.

 

[manbolt]

System Update:

My indicator system is going to CASH as of COB today with a very healthy profit. Sustained selling tomorrow MAY push it to fire off a SHORT signal, but that remains to be seen.

The trending system will remain long until it is stopped out. If the stops are not triggered by COB Friday, they will be adjusted going into next week.

Hi Oleg, thanks for posting. I saw that you are only using IT for his long signals. Does your indicator signaling a move of SPY from Buy to cash also mean that you will move TSP equities to G? Thanks for all the tips!

 

[GEW]

Hi Oleg, thanks for posting. I saw that you are only using IT for his long signals. Does your indicator signaling a move of SPY from Buy to cash also mean that you will move TSP equities to G? Thanks for all the tips!

Oleg's post #15 dated: 9/16/2013,

As I stated earlier, the main trading system I am using for ETF trades is a long-only trend following system that utilizes proprietary stops. That means the only signals it can generate are long (buy), hold, or cash (stop). The stops are continuously updated as the trend progresses, so as to prevent whipsaws and premature position exits. Some of you may have tried using stops with 3X ETF's, it is nearly impossible unless you set them pretty wide. I have found a way that is effective at preserving capital and still allows the system to hang on to 80% of the trend. The signals are issued on a weekly basis (again so as to prevent whipsaws and cut down on trading fees). Generally speaking, the system will only produce 1 signal per week, although it is possible that 2 signals are produced if the system is stopped out of a position.

A quick reason for why this is a long-only system. It has capital preservation as its underlying principle. Shorting the markets can be profitable, but few can do it on a consistently profitable basis. The general trend of the markets as and always will be up, and it's foolish to fight against the trend. A lot of newcomers to the trading realm develop a false sense of ability and start throwing their money at the market without any real understanding of risk. There is a reason why employer-sponsored retirement accounts are generally long only and have only a limited selection of funds - to keep the plan participants solvent! If you find yourself trading long/short 3X ETF's as a primary trading vehicle with more than 20% of your total account capital, I would seriously evaluate your risk management principles (or lack thereof). Ordinary people do not get rich overnight (or in a few short years) by trading the markets. Trading these very risky instruments lightheartedly will only help the statistic that 95% of amateur traders consistently lose money.

The system uses SPY/IWM as a barometer. The signals are issued based on these non-leveraged ETF's. I will keep stats for SPY/IWM trades, as well as for SSO (2X long SPY ETF and TNA (3X long IWM ETF), but if using the leveraged products, please take into account the risk involved. I will try to do a post on position sizing later this week to give everyone an idea of how I personally think leveraged ETF's should be used.

Anyway,

(1) The long-only ETF system has been long since COB 09/06/2013.

(2) The indicator system (which is long/short) is currently biased long.

I will be using the indicator system for timing TSP trades. All ETF trades will be taken in accordance with the trend following system. I will post YTD stats later this week, as I've been testing this system since January 2013. Since this is "officially" the system's go-live date, I am more interested in the results going forward than any back-tested data.

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

My indicator system gave a SELL/SHORT signal after the close.

The trending system remains long with prices well above the designated stops.

 

[coolhand]

System Update:

My indicator system gave a SELL/SHORT signal after the close.

The trending system remains long with prices well above the designated stops.

In spite of my intermediate term system being stubbornly negative, the charts are all looking pretty bullish. And breadth is very healthy too. We're due some selling pressure; that's for sure. But that dip will likely get bought. It's the dips a little further out that I'm more concerned with. We have to have another decline to set-up the upward holiday bias. Assuming that's part of the "script".

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

My indicator system closed out its short position and moved back to CASH after a quick 1 day trade COB today.

Trending system remains LONG.

 

[oleg850]

Dip buying in APPL is back! I added to my position at $517..

 

[buckeye113]

Oleg - I was wondering if you could give us your thoughts on where you think we're going from here? I am kicking myself right now because most of my money has been on the sidelines waiting for a pull-back that just won't come. I want to jump in but as soon as I do the market will tank. For those of us who recently started following you but weren't already heavily invested what would you suggest at this point?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Dip buying in APPL is back! I added to my position at $517..

Today's bearish engulfing candle does not bode well for the short term. Long term, I think AAPL will do fine.

BTW, how was it that you were able to add AAPL yesterday at $517? Looks like the range was $531.00 to $523.21.

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 16%, align: right"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 12%, align: right"]Open[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 12%, align: right"]High[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 12%, align: right"]Low[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 12%, align: right"]Close[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 16%, align: right"]Volume[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 15%, align: right"]Adj Close* [/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]Oct 28, 2013[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]529.04[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]531.00[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]523.21[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]529.88[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]18,326,900[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]529.88[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[GEW]

Today's bearish engulfing candle does not bode well for the short term. Long term, I think AAPL will do fine.

BTW, how was it that you were able to add AAPL yesterday at $517? Looks like the range was $531.00 to $523.21.

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 16%, align: right"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 12%, align: right"]Open[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 12%, align: right"]High[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 12%, align: right"]Low[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 12%, align: right"]Close[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 16%, align: right"]Volume[/TH]
[TH="class: yfnc_tablehead1, width: 15%, align: right"]Adj Close*[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]Oct 28, 2013[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]529.04[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]531.00[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]523.21[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]529.88[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]18,326,900[/TD]
[TD="class: yfnc_tabledata1, align: right"]529.88[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

He does a lot of "Aftermarket" buying.

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

Nothing major with either system this week, the indicator system remains in CASH, and the trending system remains LONG with the updated stops listed below. I apologize for the sparsity of my presence on here the last week, but have been very busy. I suspect this will continue for another week and then it should be back to business as usual.

SPY: $173.90
IWM: $109.70
TNA: $67.80
SSO: $90.40

I'll try to respond to some of the other posts over the weekend.

FYI, the privacy settings have been updated, although I'm not sure if they have kicked in yet..

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

My indicator system fired off a BUY/Long signal as of COB today.

The trending system remains in CASH after getting stopped out earlier this week with a healthy profit.

Good weekend!

 

[oleg850]

System Update:

My indicator system is going back to CASH today with a healthy 1 day profit.

The trending system will remain in CASH as well, until at least Friday.