Nordic's Account Talk

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Well, yesterday helped us get closer to an entry point for those who are on the sidelines. Question is will it be in the 1035 area, lower, higher? Let's see how this morning plays out first...
 
More to fall

"While I don't weight my cycle studies too heavily, it is worth mentioning that a 9-Month Cycle low is projected for the first part of April, and a 4-Year Cycle low is projected for later this year (July to October time frame). Viewed in this negative cycle context, the market could experience considerable difficulty for several months."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100205_cspot.html
 
VIX

"Today is a caution day, and an important test day for the VIX. Watch it carefully today, because the what happens to the VIX now will be critical to the market's direction."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Still waiting for it, the markets have room to slide yet before I'd consider entering. Not enough flexibility to try and catch a quick oversold bounce this week, only to lose it and then some, next week.
 
Re: VIX

Nordic said:
"Today is a caution day, and an important test day for the VIX. Watch it carefully today, because the what happens to the VIX now will be critical to the market's direction."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Still waiting for it, the markets have room to slide yet before I'd consider entering. Not enough flexibility to try and catch a quick oversold bounce this week, only to lose it and then some, next week.
Click to expand...

Hi Nordic,
Thanks so much for the link to stocktiming. I have subscribed and also looked at today's, Wed. report. Stocktiming is referring to the S&P's pivot point and this is something new for me. Can you explain? Thanks a bunch!! Joy Lynn :)
 
Institutional Investors

"Now, this wedge is 3 months old which is getting kind of mature in time for a pattern. At some point in the near future, this pattern should end and evolve into a new market pattern. (Institutional Index charts are posted and updated every morning on our paid subscriber sites.)"

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
 
"Currently, the New Highs are below 50, so now investors wait to see if another rise is around the corner. That's still a possibility because the NYA Index is still holding above its 6638.98 support as seen in the chart. If on the other hand, the New Highs remain under 50, AND the NYA Index falls below 6638.98, then more downside action will be in the cards."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
 
"I think the big question for most market participants is whether or not the market is putting in a medium-term bottom. The evidence is truly mixed, and I can make a case for either side of the argument; however, we have sell signals on both the daily and weekly charts, so, for now I think I will focus on the evidence supporting a further decline."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100212_cspot.html

It's a tough market to time these days, but I'm still waiting for a lower entry point.
 
Continued rally?

"Such behavior reflects a rise in investors risk appetites and suggests a strong rebound rally is just getting started. Similar periods of relative small cap strength, following periods of small cap underperformance, has marked important turning points since the March 2009 low. It happened back in December. It happened in September. It happened in July. It happened in May. And it's happening now."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1635048&_blg=1,1635048
 
Re: Continued rally?

Nordic said:
"Such behavior reflects a rise in investors risk appetites and suggests a strong rebound rally is just getting started. Similar periods of relative small cap strength, following periods of small cap underperformance, has marked important turning points since the March 2009 low. It happened back in December. It happened in September. It happened in July. It happened in May. And it's happening now."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1635048&_blg=1,1635048
Click to expand...

Human nature is predictable like that. The big money certainly knows it too. I'm thinking that the bigger move higher isn't quite ready yet though. But I could be wrong. :cool:
 
Re: Continued rally?

coolhand said:
Human nature is predictable like that. The big money certainly knows it too. I'm thinking that the bigger move higher isn't quite ready yet though. But I could be wrong. :cool:
Click to expand...

That's what I'm hoping also, I've been sitting in G all month waiting for that elusive move down to the 1035 area. I would've attempted your tactic of moving in last week and catching yesterday's bounce, nice work by the way, but was concerned about being out of IFTs with nearly two weeks to go in the month if I jumped right back out this week. We'll see how it plays out, my timing hasn't been worth a darn the last few months.
 
Small cap vs. large cap

"Given the weak economy, even more impressive may be the S&P 500's 7.4% growth in revenues since a year ago. By contrast, with exactly half the S&P 600 reporting, small-cap stocks have shown slower-than-expected earnings growth and flat revenues."

"A key factor for large-cap stocks could be the direction of the U.S. dollar. The large companies that make up the S&P 500 do business all over the world, while many small caps stay close to home. A stronger dollar makes overseas profits and sales appear smaller when brought home. On Feb. 5, the U.S. Dollar index, measuring the greenback against a basket of global currencies, hit its highest level since July 2009. The dollar is up 8.3% since Nov. 25. "If the dollar continues to strengthen, that would play into the hands of small caps," Delwiche says. "If it weakens here, that would be an additional impetus for large caps." "

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BWK&date=20100216&id=11126263
 
Last edited:
Several reasons why I remain light on the S fund and will be easing back on my position as time progresses toward the four year cycle low.
 
State pension gap

"We have a significant problem now, but it's a problem that can be solved by taking relatively modest steps," said Susan K. Urahn, the center's managing director. "If they don't do anything, if they wait, eventually they will have an unmanageable crisis on their hands."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35448576/ns/us_news-life
 
Birchtree said:
Several reasons why I remain light on the S fund and will be easing back on my position as time progresses toward the four year cycle low.
Click to expand...

Birch - Have you always diversified in the TSP, or have you ever tried being 100% in a certain fund at a certain time? I've always had a tendency to diversify, but am now weighing whether or not I should instead load up 100% in a single fund when I'm invested, when that fund is likely to outperform the others. Just curious.
 
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