Nordic's Account Talk

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I've pretty much leaned heavily on the C fund - although there was a time I was 100% S fund a few years back. I like to diversify a little to hedge my bets and now I'm trying to prepare for the upcoming 4-year cycle low which could precipitate a better than 10% correction. This last consolidation was I believe an 8.1% give back and fairly harmless.
 
Birchtree said:
I've pretty much leaned heavily on the C fund - although there was a time I was 100% S fund a few years back. I like to diversify a little to hedge my bets and now I'm trying to prepare for the upcoming 4-year cycle low which could precipitate a better than 10% correction. This last consolidation was I believe an 8.1% give back and fairly harmless.
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Birchtree - I didn't know you had ever been anywhere except C until
just recently - !!! :)
 
That article was a nice history lesson especially for someone who lived the time. I still happen to believe that we are in a continuing mega trend secular bull market that was interrupted by two cyclical bear markets and that we have years in front of us to make money. Please keep up the good reads. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
That article was a nice history lesson especially for someone who lived the time. I still happen to believe that we are in a continuing mega trend secular bull market that was interrupted by two cyclical bear markets and that we have years in front of us to make money. Please keep up the good reads. Snort.
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Bingo!
 
Re: Bull trap?

Nordic said:
According to Swenlin:
"The negative side of the picture is that volume accompanying the breakout and subsequent advance only has been averaging about 85% of the 250-EMA of daily volume, which does not reflect broad confidence in the move. This, plus other evidence we will discuss, makes me think the breakout could be a bull trap."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100219_cspot.html
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This is true, but we've seen numerous light volume uptrends in the past 2 or 3years too. It's not enough to hang my hat on. But you never know, maybe this one will prove to be a bull trap. I think the news is too bad though for any downside action to stick even if we do see a reversal.
 
jobs

"With or without new legislation, reducing a jobless rate that's now just under 10 percent to prerecessionary rates of about half that won't happen soon, especially as government efforts to prop up the economy begin to wind down. It could take up to five years or more just to get back to even."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35501495/ns/business
 
"Second, almost no one is going to catch all the cyclical bull rallies in a secular bear, especially if the bear is really deep. And most investors shouldn't try, nor should they kick themselves if they miss one or two. Remember that in a bear, staying on the sidelines beats buying high and selling low repeatedly in an effort to catch the next rally. If the bear is really deep, rallies off the bottom can be explosive and end quickly. The 52% rally from October 1974 to July 1975 was over before most investors recognized its existence."

"The potential for interest rates to follow a similar course over the next decade that they did in 1968-82 is one reason that I put the odds of a secular bear lasting five to seven more years so high."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...rnal/ride-this-bull-but-be-ready-to-jump.aspx
 
Hrmm. I disagree a bit with Mr. Jubal's analysis. The March 2000 bust had a lot to do with the e-commerce bubble, so I'm not sure if it started a secular bear marker per se. To me, it appeared a lot of the 1998-early 2000 huge gains was a e-anything game - similar to the recent housing loan game. However, I also believe the uptick was correct - just not the magnitude. But that's my two cents, and could be wrong - I am by profession a bit over-whelmed with tech news.
 
Silverbird said:
Hrmm. I disagree a bit with Mr. Jubal's analysis. The March 2000 bust had a lot to do with the e-commerce bubble, so I'm not sure if it started a secular bear marker per se. To me, it appeared a lot of the 1998-early 2000 huge gains was a e-anything game - similar to the recent housing loan game. However, I also believe the uptick was correct - just not the magnitude. But that's my two cents, and could be wrong - I am by profession a bit over-whelmed with tech news.
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A bit over-whelmed with tech news...only? Lucky you ;) I'm struggling making heads or tails out of all the markets right now, every time I wig, the markets wag. Lately it's been analysis paralysis...I've been out of the equity funds the entire month waiting for that much hyped drop down to 1030, which of course never came. It still might happen of course, but in the mean time I've been too cautious.
 
rebound over?

"As you can see in the chart above, stocks as represented by the S&P 500 index bonked their head on significant overhead resistance. There was the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the January-February decline, the 50-day moving average, and the top of the November-December trading range. Also, the ultimate oscillator in the lower window shows how stocks had reached an overbought level that has marked short-term turnarounds over the last six months."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1652125&_blg=1,1652125

Bring on that !@#$% 1030 already.
 
big Ben

"On the one hand, the Fed is trying to prepare investors and businesses for the prospect of higher interest rates after an unprecedented policy of keeping short-term rates near zero. But with the U.S. economy still in the early stages of a wobbly recovery, the Fed has to tread lightly for fear of spooking investors who worry that higher rates could snuff out the rebound."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35564089/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy
 
dollar weakness?

"While the dollar has been showing good strength for about three months, we can see that it has reached the top of a rising trend channel, and the PMO is somewhat overbought and has generated a crossover sell signal. This leads me to believe that the dollar wiil experience a correction soon and will support rising gold prices for probably several weeks."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100226_cspot.html

Hope Carl's right about a pullback in the dollar, I went in 50S yesterday and may put more to work in the I fund if the dollar does start showing signs of weakness. March could be an interesting month to watch, there are still many folks predicting a decline down to the 1030-970 area in the S&P.
 
banking index

"When you think about it, the banks and financials are really important to the economy's growth. If banks aren't making loans, their profits will suffer. If they don't make loans, housing will suffer. So, keep an eye on the Banking Index."

"At some point in the not to distant future, the Banking index will break out of its trading range. If it is to the upside, then you will see the S&P rally ... if it is to the downside, the S&P will come under duress and pull back or fall."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
 
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