Nordic's Account Talk

[Nordic]

Edge of the abyss?

"One last thing. The weekly analysis suggests the stock market is overdue for a meaningful correction: On average, a downward cross of the 18-week moving average occurs on average every 11.9 weeks since 1793. Right now, the S&P 500 has gone 43 weeks without a downward cross."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1589114&_blg=1,1589114

 

[Nordic]

Nasdaq

Nasdaq, usually one of the market's leading indicators, showing more weakness than the other indices lately...possibly even more weakness to come for the others. :suspicious:

 

[Nordic]

"Now that they’ve cut them to the bone, the rate of inventory-cutting has slowed. The way the GDP is calculated, that slowdown adds to “growth” — even though it doesn’t reflect increased production or sales. If you back out that inventory adjustment, GDP grew only 2.2 percent."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35149367/ns/business-answer_desk

Do they really think we're buying these inflated numbers?

 

[Silverbird]

Heh, its how GDP is calculated, the sale goes to the quarter when the inventory was sold. How else could you do it? Which is why you always have to look at *why*. GDP itself is only good for comparing a general economic indicator with other countries's.

 

[Nordic]

More pain ahead

"The most obvious immediate support is around 1030, followed by a series of previous lows going down to 980, which would be the worst case if this correction is to remain in the "mild-to-moderate" category. If prices eventually drop to the area of the support at 870, that would be severe enough to start questioning our bull market thesis."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100129_cspot.html

 

[Nordic]

As January goes...

"The adage 'as January goes, so goes the year' bodes ill for equity investors after the S&P 500 closed out its worst month in almost a year."

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20100130&id=11074280

 

[Birchtree]

From your link. "Essentially the fuel was used in sustaining the rally as far as it did, and we are now beginning a down cycle that I expect to be prolonged and severe." This is perfect. The more of this stuff we get the better - hope he holds the line all the way back to the top and then stays out even longer.

 

[Nordic]

From your link. "Essentially the fuel was used in sustaining the rally as far as it did, and we are now beginning a down cycle that I expect to be prolonged and severe." This is perfect. The more of this stuff we get the better - hope he holds the line all the way back to the top and then stays out even longer.

One day, when I grow up, I hope to be a perma-bull just like you Birch...but I'm just not quite there yet. Until then, I'm contemplating not trying to catch this next bounce up, and waiting for major Wave 2 to begin, assuming EWT plays out this month.

Hey FRTIB, would it really be too much to ask for 1-2 additional IFTs per month? How do you go from unlimited IFTs down to 2 per month? Let's try NOT making DVDs and unnecessary software upgrades, and give us more flexibility to MAKE MONEY. Novel, isn't it?

 

[Nordic]

"Instead of trading north of 10,000, the "real" Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is struggling to clear 5,000. Based on calculations I'll explain below, the real return of U.S. stocks since 1820 is just 1.4% a year."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/stock-markets-real-return-paltry.aspx

 

[CrabClaw]

Hey FRTIB, would it really be too much to ask for 1-2 additional IFTs per month? How do you go from unlimited IFTs down to 2 per month? Let's try NOT making DVDs and unnecessary software upgrades, and give us more flexibility to MAKE MONEY. Novel, isn't it?

Oh its just another example of "The Man" keeping us down

 

[Nordic]

foreclosures

"Now the FHA's woes continue to mount. About 9% of FHA borrowers have missed at least three payments (up from 6.5% a year ago), and experts say that means a new wave of home foreclosures is coming, according to The Washington Post."


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1599933&_blg=1,1599933

 

[Handballer]

Hey FRTIB, would it really be too much to ask for 1-2 additional IFTs per month? How do you go from unlimited IFTs down to 2 per month? Let's try NOT making DVDs and unnecessary software upgrades, and give us more flexibility to MAKE MONEY. Novel, isn't it?

We have to settle with 2 per month but we can really make many more than that. Check the Tracker for year 2009, 116 members made more than 10% gains. Two of then made more than 50% gains. Having more IFTs a month doesn't mean better success.

 

[Nordic]

We have to settle with 2 per month but we can really make many more than that. Check the Tracker for year 2009, 116 members made more than 10% gains. Two of then made more than 50% gains. Having more IFTs a month doesn't mean better success.

We can make more IFTs into the G fund only after the first 2, but the flexibility to time the markets, especially during volatile periods like the one we're currently experiencing, is now pretty limited...at least compared to how we were able to operate prior to the current system. Even just one more IFT/month could make a big difference. We'll just have to become more savvy investors, not a bad thing.

 

[Nordic]

China...again

"At about 9 AM this morning, it was reported that China's press was furiously lashing out at what they were calling U.S. "arrogance" and "double standards". With a sense of righteous indignation they are getting Chinese citizens emotionally involved ... in other words, this is escalating down to China's population.
China is now saying that its threat to penalize U.S. companies was real ... unless they can now find a way to save face, this is going to escalate to sanctions against U.S. companies with counter measures coming from the U.S. ... and investors will get out of harms way as the markets vote for safety versus risk."

"Don't count on it .... while the VIX has moved somewhat lower, Liquidity has been leaving the markets. Unless this changes real soon, the VIX is going to have a surprise jump to the upside as investor fears escalate."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Birchtree]

From your link: "The VIX chart below shows a rare circular pattern that rarely happens. The last time it occurred, the VIX fell below the circle and we had a great Bull market move."

 

[Nordic]

From your link: "The VIX chart below shows a rare circular pattern that rarely happens. The last time it occurred, the VIX fell below the circle and we had a great Bull market move."

Ahh, but the rest of the story....

"The VIX chart below shows a rare circular pattern that rarely happens. The last time it occurred, the VIX fell below the circle and we had a great Bull market move.

This time, it is acting different. On January 21st, it broke back into the circle and above a rising fan line. Many VIX watchers will tell you that "all is well" because the VIX has been moving lower since January 22nd.

Don't count on it .... while the VIX has moved somewhat lower, Liquidity has been leaving the markets. Unless this changes real soon, the VIX is going to have a surprise jump to the upside as investor fears escalate."

 

[Nordic]

Don't really enjoy missing the nice 3% bounce so far this week, trying to remain patient for that better entry point...falling down the tracker fast the last two days. :suspicious: Come on EWT, let's get down to the 1030 area. Wait for it....

 

[WorkFE]

:suspicious: Come on EWT, let's get down to the 1030 area. Wait for it....

Do you mind, I'm trying to buy a Taurus here

 

[Birchtree]

I prefer the 1222 area myself and I'm waiting for it.

 

[nasa1974]

I prefer the 1222 area myself and I'm waiting for it.

Birch, We may very well see 1222 but not in this rally time frame. I think Fridays information is going to give us a new low. Then we may see 1222 mid-summer.