Nordic's Account Talk

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Struggling Recovery

"Johnson is not alone. "I hate to say 'This time is different,' but I think it may be," says David Wyss, the chief economist for Standard & Poor's. With overhanging debt at the household and national levels and a serious trade imbalance, it will be difficult to return to the stronger growth patterns of the postwar years, Wyss says."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/americas-vulnerable-half-speed-recovery.aspx


A daily dose of bearishness, need to knock that bullish sentiment down a bit.
 
Gurus on Fed actions

"Another top strategist concerned about the government: Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com. Zandi told Bloomberg that more stimulus is needed to prevent the U.S. from slipping back into recession. Zandi says inflation won't be a problem in 2010 or 2011, and that the government shouldn't forego further stimulus efforts because of inflation fears that may not come to fruition for another two years or more."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1554591&_blg=1,1554591
 
Obama failing investors

"Today, we just don't see, or expect to see, any real change we can believe in. America is more polarized than under Bush's GOP, dysfunctional as both political parties tragically undermine our great nation."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/how-obama-is-failing-investors.aspx


Personally, I think America's instant gratification gene is preventing us from allowing the system to work properly....I realize folks want relief right now, but BHO's only been in office for 12 months....we need to be more patient and let democracy do it's thing. Rushing this health care bill through Congress is just one example. BHO needs to understand that most Americans would rather wait awhile longer for a more palatable bill, rather than have a pork-filled piece of junk rushed through both chambers just to say it's done. JMHO
 
Unfortunately, the hope & change guy is just another rank & file Mr. status quo and the people arent as dumb as they think.
 
IFT

Well, this may come back to bite me considering Poolman's impending P3, but with the I fund's 5% drop in two days, I'm going 100% into I COB today in hopes of catching a very short term bounce....then bouncing to the G fund. Just looking at catching a quick gain before exiting for the month. We'll see, that P3 is starting to look like the real deal :suspicious:
 
joylynn said:
Hi Nordic,

Will you pull out on the 30th of January?

Thanks a bunch!

Joy Lynn:confused:
Click to expand...

Hi Joy Lynn, it could even be sooner than that. Poolman recently had some posts showing a P3 (nasty correction) possibly underway. My move today was solely based on the fact that the I fund has lost nearly 5% in just two days, and I'm taking a big risk by assuming we could see a bounce very soon in the I fund. I could exit to the G fund as early as tomorrow or Monday if we do see a bounce. I think we're likely to see more downside action in the next week or so, but with 2 new IFTs the week after next, I'm willing to try timing an I fund bounce and locking in a gain before exiting again. I normally don't try timing things this closely, but the action in the I fund the last two days presents an interesting, albeit risky, opportunity.

We'll see how it plays out...I also noticed that the current Tracker leader, Show-me, also went in 100% I fund today...and there were probably others who bought equity shares at lower prices today. The increasing volitility really makes for risky trading with our limited IFTs. Good luck!
 
Well, I am trying to understand you Nordic! Please stay with me, what do you mean by a bounce? Is that a bounce for the up or the down? I always think of bouncing as an upward event. Why are you going into the I if things are supposed to go south?

Joy Lynn
 
joylynn said:
Well, I am trying to understand you Nordic! Please stay with me, what do you mean by a bounce? Is that a bounce for the up or the down? I always think of bouncing as an upward event. Why are you going into the I if things are supposed to go south?

Joy Lynn
Click to expand...

Joy Lynn - in this case, because the I fund has fallen approx. 4% in just two days, often times we'll see a "bounce" up immediately afterward. Now this bounce up may not recover the entire 4% that was just lost, but if you can buy into the I fund at that 4% discounted price, then you have a fair chance to "ride the elevator back up", so to speak, and possibly gain 1, 2, 3%....which is better than a sharp stick in the eye. The trick to this week's move, is that I don't plan on staying in I fund for very long, possibly as short as 1-2 days if we indeed do recover some of that 4%.

The reason I plan on exiting back into G shortly, is that I think there is more room to the downside to go AFTER this short-term bounce, and I want to lock in the gains from that HOPEFUL bounce, before the markets resume downward....and I would do that with the knowledge that we'll be getting 2 new IFTs the week after next. As I mentioned, Poolman has been posting about a possible P3 scenario playing out which has raised some eyebrows due to it's severity. In other words, if the P3 has indeed begun, you will want to be sitting in the safety of the G fund...which I plan on doing after I catch this elusive bounce up in the I fund. Fingers, eyes, and every other appendage will be crossed in this move as the markets could just as easily resume downward in the next few days, with NO bounce....gamble failed. I do take some comfort in knowing Show-me also moved into the I fund today, perhaps he's thinking of the same/similar strategy? I will admit that I wouldn't be taking this risk if the I fund had only lost 1-2%, but because it has taken a beating the last two days, I'm gambling that it's now due for some kind of a bounce up.

Hope this helps, let me know if you'd like more clarification on this strategy. It's pretty risky, but it's a calculated risk I'm willing to take in trying to gain a couple of percentage points. The volatility in the markets is definitely increasing, so it results in some interesting strategies from different folks. Again, this is all JMHO :)
 
Yesterday's gamble of jumping into the I fund in hopes of a bounce today isn't paying off so far. I'll give it a bit more time, 1-3 days, and see how things look before making another move. It was an exciting chance to play the odds a bit in a volatile market, basically a swipe at the I fund on my way out the door.
 
From Carl Swenlin:

"Bottom Line: We have just witnessed the worst three-day decline since the March 2009 bottom. I think it is the beginning of a more substantial decline, but short-term indicators are so oversold that the next thing we will probably see is a bounce. The most important thing to watch in the medium term is for 20-EMAs to cross down through 50-EMAs. In most cases, this will change buy signals to neutral signals, except where the 50-EMA is below the 200-EMA at the time of the 20/50-EMA crossover. That would be a sell. In the event that the S&P 500 bounces high enough to exceed the January highs, I would have to assume that the presently anticipated correction has run its course."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100122_cspot.html
 
Holding steady in my I fund allocation for now, which is showing some life today while the other funds are basically trading sideways. Uptrend's and Tsunami's informative EW analysis are looking at a bounce to the SPX 1110-1115 area before the next step down to the 1070 area....so I'll wait for that before exiting this week. Two new IFTs next week to hopefully buy in before the major wave 2 begins an upswing. Will be interesting to see how this EW scenario plays out. Poolman's P3 is still fresh in my mind :suspicious:
 
Well, my I fund play hasn't panned out well to this point. I won't be able to monitor the markets for the next few days, so I'll probably exit to G fund tomorrow COB. Lots of volatility and not enough flexibility to mess around too much. 2 new IFTs next week to jump back in if the EWT permits a better entry point, so I'll be watching for that major Wave 2. Hopefully tomorrow will send me out of the I fund on a GREEN note :rolleyes:
 
More warning signals

"Elliott Wave’s Prechter, the analyst who predicted the financial-market meltdown that began in 2008, told CNBC he is “seeing signals like the ones we saw” when the S&P 500 was peaking in 2007 and at the peak of the technology bubble in 2000."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arMDvefvKiX0&pos=3


Many articles like this one recently, good enough for me. Back to the G fund COB today. So far I'm up %0.32 on last Friday's I fund play, let's see if today can boost that a bit.
 
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