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Nordic's Account Talk
- Thread starter Nordic
- Start date
Nordic
Member
Betula papyrifera, that was the biggest reason I was hesitant to jump off the 'pad this week, the potential for whipsaw action. I normally put some in the I fund also, but was curious to see what the dollar is going to do in the near future, so held off until I have a better feeling on the dollar. That dang VIX going lower made me hesitant also about jumping in at this point. We'll see what happens.
Nordic
Member
Oil article
"Consumer demand, technology, and global politics are shifting in a way that could spell a future of oil abundance, not of catastrophic dearth. As Leonardo Maugeri, a senior executive at Italian oil major ENI, puts it: "There will be enough oil for at least 100 years." "
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34770285/ns/business-oil_and_energy
"Consumer demand, technology, and global politics are shifting in a way that could spell a future of oil abundance, not of catastrophic dearth. As Leonardo Maugeri, a senior executive at Italian oil major ENI, puts it: "There will be enough oil for at least 100 years." "
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34770285/ns/business-oil_and_energy
Silverbird
Well-known member
Now if only they could produce enough to put a dent in OPEC, I'd be happy....
Nordic
Member
Struggling recovery
"With overhanging debt at the household and national levels and a serious trade imbalance, it will be difficult to return to the stronger growth patterns of the postwar years, Wyss says."
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/americas-vulnerable-half-speed-recovery.aspx
"With overhanging debt at the household and national levels and a serious trade imbalance, it will be difficult to return to the stronger growth patterns of the postwar years, Wyss says."
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/americas-vulnerable-half-speed-recovery.aspx
Nordic
Member
Bonds bubble?
"But when they happen, bond debacles can have an insidious effect on people's nest eggs. If interest rates were to rise, for example -- and many analysts believe that's likely -- bond prices could get clobbered. Prices on even "safe" Treasury and municipal bonds
could fall 30% or more if interest rates soared over the next few years. Some corporate bonds could fall even more."
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/are-bonds-the-next-bubble.aspx
"But when they happen, bond debacles can have an insidious effect on people's nest eggs. If interest rates were to rise, for example -- and many analysts believe that's likely -- bond prices could get clobbered. Prices on even "safe" Treasury and municipal bonds
could fall 30% or more if interest rates soared over the next few years. Some corporate bonds could fall even more." http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/are-bonds-the-next-bubble.aspx
Birchtree
Well-known member
An excellent read on the bond folks - I'm staying with equities for life. For every one-point rise in the federal funds and other interest rates, the price of a 10-year Treasury decreases by 8.5%; a rise of two percentage points would chop a 10-year Treasury bond's value by 17%, using figures from Barclays Capital.
Nordic
Member
Give us equities, or give us death.
Nordic
Member
VIX watch
"So, one would logically expect the same reaction. That's possible, but it is also possible that the VIX moves below the support and trends sideways to lower with no pull back in the market. That is why it is currently at a "juncture", and because both scenarios are real possibilities."
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
I'll take some sideways trending please.
"So, one would logically expect the same reaction. That's possible, but it is also possible that the VIX moves below the support and trends sideways to lower with no pull back in the market. That is why it is currently at a "juncture", and because both scenarios are real possibilities."
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
I'll take some sideways trending please.
Nordic
Member
VIX watch...continued
"So now, you have more to watch for than just the bottom of the expanding wedge ... also watch for what happens around the 18.64 resistance level, and the red resistance line. If the red resistance line is penetrated, then pay particular attention to our resistance line #2, because it would be very bearish if that were broken to the upside."
http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
"So now, you have more to watch for than just the bottom of the expanding wedge ... also watch for what happens around the 18.64 resistance level, and the red resistance line. If the red resistance line is penetrated, then pay particular attention to our resistance line #2, because it would be very bearish if that were broken to the upside."
http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Nordic
Member
Well my friend, it'll make news when you move that much over to G. So far, I haven't read much in the way of bullish predictions for Q3-Q4, so it looks like you'll be right on track. I'm trying to break my recent tendency of over-managing my account and stay in equities longer during these upswings despite the possibility of 2-4% pullbacks. I end up costing myself more by being out for too long, than what I would've saved by being on the lilypad during a minor gyration.
Birchtree
Well-known member
It will take me six months to get to 30G - but I'll remain 70C and just take the hits when they come. Futures are already looking fine this evening. We could have an excellent day tomorrow with the VIX going back into the 16 level. I'm trying to buy myself into happiness.
Nordic
Member
Poker and Investing
How true
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/how-poker-makes-you-a-better-investor.aspx
How true
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/how-poker-makes-you-a-better-investor.aspx
Birchtree
Well-known member
From the article; "...people hate to be responsible for their own pain." I've always welcomed my pain levels because I knew opportunity was just around the corner. Sometimes no pain means no gains. I've on occasion driven some on this board crazy becasue of my comments about accepting and enduring pain - never let them see you cut and run is what I say you'll create panic.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Nice one Birch, I'm looking to diversify in March and will probably drop to cash then back in on a CSI position & then to slowly buy back into C on some good return days.....
B&H this fall!
Nordic
Member
China
"If you own Chinese stocks or Chinese real estate, you should worry about the bursting of this bubble. It could easily take prices of Chinese stocks down 20% or more. After all, the Shanghai market fell 21% between July 31 and Aug. 31 last year. That was in the middle of the huge rally in global markets."
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...rnal/the-coming-economic-crisis-in-china.aspx
"If you own Chinese stocks or Chinese real estate, you should worry about the bursting of this bubble. It could easily take prices of Chinese stocks down 20% or more. After all, the Shanghai market fell 21% between July 31 and Aug. 31 last year. That was in the middle of the huge rally in global markets."
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...rnal/the-coming-economic-crisis-in-china.aspx
Nordic
Member
Negative Divergences
"Bottom Line: The abundance of negative divergences keeps waving the caution flag for a correction; however, the complete lack of new lows indicates that we are only witnessing cyclical weakness during an ongoing bull market, not a major top."
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100115_cspot.html
Again, a tough market to call right now. I'm trying to be patient and not pull the plug too early this month, still two weeks to go with only 1 IFT remaining. Thanks TSP board, really didn't need those additional IFTs anyway
"Bottom Line: The abundance of negative divergences keeps waving the caution flag for a correction; however, the complete lack of new lows indicates that we are only witnessing cyclical weakness during an ongoing bull market, not a major top."
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100115_cspot.html
Again, a tough market to call right now. I'm trying to be patient and not pull the plug too early this month, still two weeks to go with only 1 IFT remaining. Thanks TSP board, really didn't need those additional IFTs anyway
