Nordic's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

That was a good read from seekingalpha. It's a shame he thinks we are in a secular bear market. I'm opening the faucets this year and plan to get in even deeper with my life savings. I'm using margin now so my potential for gains could be explosive if the bull decides to stampede. The more you have in the more you win.

 

[Birchtree]

Another good read from Sam Stovall. I've followed his dad Bob for years. "But historical precedent suggests it would be wise to stay with the market."

 

[anthony]

From your Stovall article, "There are a lot of potential land mines out there. Commercial real estate is one of them."

WSJ's Smart Money for December had a big article on this subject as well. They called commercial real estate "the next bubble." They also cited Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, and BOA as least at risk.

I'm gonna go waaaaay out on a limb and speculate that Birchtree owns one or all three of those in the B&T500 Total Market Index (^BTSNRT).

 

[KevinD]

(^BTSNRT)

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

 

[Nordic]

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Outstanding, that made my week, thanks Anthony

 

[Nordic]

SC rally over?

"Of particular note is the Santa Claus rally that tends to bring a short but sweet advance heading into the end of the year. It's been worth a 1.4% gain since 1950. But now, with stocks in a number of sectors rolling over, it looks like Santa time is over."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1516385&_blg=1,1516385

 

[Nordic]

Inflation

"We have the most potentially inflationary policy I have ever observed in a developed country," said Alan Meltzer, a Fed historian and professor of political economy at the Carnegie Mellon Tepper School of Business in Pittsburgh."

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20091230&id=10951592

 

[Nordic]

Fed to unleash epic bull market?

"All that extra firepower will benefit equities heading into 2010 and beyond. This is what happened in the late 1950s and early 1960s, which was the last time that Treasury rates rose from such low levels (shown in the chart above). During that period, the Dow Industrial Average more than quadrupled as it jumped over 1,000 for the first time."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1518389&_blg=1,1518389

 

[Birchtree]

Great article there Nordic. From the same link: "All that cash has been flowing into bond mutual funds lately sure seem like an abandonment of equities by the average investors offer a decade of pakltry returns. With expectations for stocks so low, it makes the bullish scenario I outline all the more likely as the cruel market gods fool the investing public once more."

 

[Nordic]

Great article there Nordic. From the same link: "All that cash has been flowing into bond mutual funds lately sure seem like an abandonment of equities by the average investors offer a decade of pakltry returns. With expectations for stocks so low, it makes the bullish scenario I outline all the more likely as the cruel market gods fool the investing public once more."

Birch - The only reason I'm on the sidelines right now is in anticipation of a possible January swoon. Just about everything I've been reading has been predicting continued bullishness for at least the first half of 2010, so I'm antsy to get back into the market...just trying to be patient while the markets go through their post holiday gyrations. I would love nothing more than to return to my usual permabull mindset of parking myself in the B&T 500...I proved to myself that being too "cute" with timing the market cost me at least 20% in returns in 2009 :suspicious:

 

[Nordic]

Thanks to our 3:30 selling friends, today's losses will hopefully bring us closer to an improved entry point.

 

[Nordic]

Next decade

"Analysts say the best way to avoid being caught by other bubbles is to remain vigilant about diversifying, the practice of investing in a variety of assets. It could also mean shedding some of the stronger performers to avoid some of the risks that the winners will falter."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34633553/ns/business-stocks_and_economy

 

[Birchtree]

I'm counting on an equity bubble to turn me into a multi-millionaire in the next two years. Does anybody remember the nifty fifty stocks of the early 1970s? I only need about ten of those to load up on.

 

[Nordic]

Lost decade

"The financial crisis is, for all practical purposes, over, and forecasters are now generally expecting the job market to turn around early in 2010 and begin creating jobs. The task ahead for the next generation of economists is to figure out how, in a decade that began with such economic promise, things went so wrong."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34664092/ns/business-washington_post

 

[Nordic]

Another struggling industry

But for a different reason...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34671872/ns/us_news-life

 

[burrocrat]

It's the same story in the beef industry too. The cost to get in the game is prohibitive. If you had that kind of money, just put it in the bank and live off the interest. Why work a grueling 16 hours a day just to feed the family and put gas in the pickup while others don't even blink paying $9.99 for ribeye at the store? Where did the money go?

There certainly is a disincentive to work that pervades our culture. What have we become?

On the other hand, you may never get rich, but if you love what you do you will be the wealthiest man (or woman) alive.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Another struggling industry

But for a different reason...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34671872/ns/us_news-life

This is only a problem if you think the ownership should stay small business. In the future the permits and boat ownerships will be consolidated into CPOs (Collateralized Permit Opportunities) and marketed to overseas sovereign funds and other hedge funds. The brokers on Wall Street will extend their influence beyond real estate into fish.

 

[Nordic]

Roth IRA article

High income earners are now eligible to convert to a Roth.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...rement/roth-ira-switch-now-pay-tax-later.aspx

 

[Nordic]

It's the same story in the beef industry too. The cost to get in the game is prohibitive. If you had that kind of money, just put it in the bank and live off the interest. Why work a grueling 16 hours a day just to feed the family and put gas in the pickup while others don't even blink paying $9.99 for ribeye at the store? Where did the money go?

There certainly is a disincentive to work that pervades our culture. What have we become?

On the other hand, you may never get rich, but if you love what you do you will be the wealthiest man (or woman) alive.

Agreed Burro, it sure gives me an uneasy feeling seeing industries such as manufacturing and even fishing dwindle over time. I especially agree with your last statement, and am fortunate enough to be living it.

 

[Nordic]

It's the same story in the beef industry too. The cost to get in the game is prohibitive. If you had that kind of money, just put it in the bank and live off the interest. Why work a grueling 16 hours a day just to feed the family and put gas in the pickup while others don't even blink paying $9.99 for ribeye at the store? Where did the money go?

There certainly is a disincentive to work that pervades our culture. What have we become?

On the other hand, you may never get rich, but if you love what you do you will be the wealthiest man (or woman) alive.

Speaking of job satisfaction....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34691428/ns/business-careers