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Re: Dubai bailout boosts futures

Nordic said:
"Abu Dhabi bailed out neighboring Dubai on Monday with $10 billion in surprise aid for Dubai, driving stock markets higher, but Dubai said Dubai World creditors still needed to approve a standstill on outstanding debt."


http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20091214&id=10771179
Click to expand...

Dubai is being played down by the media right now, but Greece is teetering on default. If that happens (I think it's a question of when, not if) it'll probably be used as an excuse to take profits again. Ireland is also close to default. Domino theory in play.
 
Re: Dubai bailout boosts futures

coolhand said:
Dubai is being played down by the media right now, but Greece is teetering on default. If that happens (I think it's a question of when, not if) it'll probably be used as an excuse to take profits again. Ireland is also close to default. Domino theory in play.
Click to expand...

Yeah, there definitely seem to be other factors at play. I hope I'm wrong, but I just have a feeling this market is just grinding right now, which isn't a bad thing if it's grinding upward, but my gut is starting to talk to me. Santa may be delivering sticks and coal this rally....just doesn't seem to be much momentum this month, at least so far.
 
IFT

With the breakout of the dollar and I fund sluggishness, I took advantage of today's I fund strength to shift 20% into the S fund COB today. Now sitting 30C/50S/20I. Not sure how much longer I'll remain in the stock funds, but will probably ride out the rest of the month and see how things are looking, and feeling then.
 
Mixed outlook

"Bottom Line: The short-term chart presents two opposite possible outcomes, but the medium-term (stronger) time frame points toward a correction of modest duration; therefore, an upside breakout is unlikely to be sustained. The long-term (strongest) chart tells us that, regardless of how severe a correction we experience, the bull market will ultimately prevail."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/091218_cspot.html


Interesting scenarios being described here...try to time the medium-term correction to maximize gains/minimize losses, or ride out the longer term bullish action? Being in the alleged dumb money camp, buy and hold seems to be a strong play here...but it's getting more difficult to tolerate any lasting pain a correction would likely bring. Two years ago I'd put the blinders on and ride the storm out, now I'm not so sure. :suspicious:
 
Iraq - Iran

EYES ON IRAQ AND IRAN
"A potential headwind for markets could be any increase in tensions between Iraq and Iran. On Friday, Iraq demanded that Iran immediately withdraw its soldiers from a disputed oilfield on the two countries' border, but Iran denied any incursion. [ID:nLDE5BH1BI]
While the U.S. stock market was unaffected on Friday, an escalation in hostility between Iraq and Iran could push investors out of stocks and into safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar or Treasury bonds.
"Any acceleration of aggression, or potential disruption in the supply of oil would have a more meaningful impact on investor sentiment," Creatura said.
On Friday, U.S. crude oil futures settled at $73.36 a barrel, up 71 cents, or almost 1 percent, with Middle Eastern tensions supporting oil prices."


Sounds like there is something going on, beyond the usual BS, between these two...I'll have to read up, don't recall hearing anything recently that would indicate escalating hostilities.
 
2010

"What's in store for 2010? Recessions stemming from financial crises tend to be severe and are usually followed by relatively anemic economic recoveries. This time will be no exception, with one of the feeblest recoveries -- maybe 2% to 3% growth in gross domestic product in 2010 -- to follow such a steep decline."

"There may well be a day of reckoning for all the lingering structural imbalances, but we're betting that it won't come in 2010, a midterm election year. Somewhat surprisingly, then, this year may turn out to be a good one for the stock market.

With the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) selling in early November at about 15 times estimated 2010 earnings, the market's price-earnings ratio is in line with the historical average. Driven by improving earnings in the new year and the prospect of more of the same in 2011, a broad index such as the S&P 500 could return about 10% over the next 12 months. The market's best-known barometer, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), could approach 11,000."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/where-to-invest-your-money-in-2010.aspx
 
Dollar 2010 forecast

"Dollar Forecasts : The median estimate of more than 40 economists and strategists is for the dollar to end the year little changed at $1.47 per euro, and appreciate to 92 yen, from 89.97 today.

The growth of global reserves is accelerating, with Taiwan’s and South Korea’s, the fifth- and sixth-largest in the world, rising 2.1 percent to $332.2 billion and 3.6 percent to $254.3 billion in September, the fastest since May. The four biggest pools of reserves are held by China, Japan, Russia and India.

China, which controlled $2.1 trillion in foreign reserves as of June 30 and owns $800 billion of U.S. debt, is among the countries that don’t report allocations. “Unless you think China does things significantly differently from others,” the anti-dollar trend is unmistakable, Englander said."


http://www.savingtoinvest.com/2008/05/us-dollar-outlook-2008-2009-and-beyond.html
 
The men of the broken decade

"Of course, the eventual trouble precipitated by the anything-goes mentality then brewing in the wild and crazy banking system -- and by the failure to realize that speculation run amok can threaten the financial system -- caused Greenspan to behave as he did.
His actions and words fomented the stock mania that followed. That mania sent stock prices high enough such that now, a decade later, the market has generated a total return, including dividends, just shy of minus 10% -- the worst decade for stocks in the past 100 years. For perspective, the 1930s yielded a modest loss of about 0.3%."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...nChronicles/the-men-of-the-broken-decade.aspx
 
pessimism bubble

Merry Christmas Birchtree...

"We've moved from abundant optimism in 1999 to plentiful pessimism in 2009. But from this environment of low expectations, wonderful things can happen. Even a less bad economic scenario would be a pleasant surprise to many. Stock prices, which are a reflection of public optimism about the future, will be a direct beneficiary of exceeded expectations. Historically, periods of widespread pessimism have coincided with excellent times to buy stocks for the long haul."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1501823&_blg=1,1501823


Interestingly bullish tone for things to come. Makes me wonder if what many of us are experiencing now is a sort of "wall of worry" :suspicious:
Will be interesting to watch January play out....as January goes, so goes the rest of the year....except for 2009 :cool:
 
That was an excellent read. From the same link. "You can see that the current reading of 24% matches levels reached in 1983 and 1996 - both of which marked the beginning of very exciting and profitable bull cycles. We appear to be on the verge of another one."
 
Birchtree said:
That was an excellent read. From the same link. "You can see that the current reading of 24% matches levels reached in 1983 and 1996 - both of which marked the beginning of very exciting and profitable bull cycles. We appear to be on the verge of another one."
Click to expand...

Agreed BT, interesting extremes being heard from various sources for what lies ahead in 2010. There seems to be enough fear and negative sentiment to keep Ferdinand plugging along, at least for a bit.
 
Out

If today's gains hold, I'll end the year +18%...almost double my original goal of 10%. Many indicators, including sentiment, are reaching extended levels for this rally, so I've decided to move it on over to the lillypad for the last week of the year. 100% G COB today. Here's to a prosperous 2010. :)
 
Intermediate-term outlook

"With two opposing possible short-term outcomes, let's look at the weekly chart, which gives us a medium-term (weeks to months) view of the market. This chart looks bearish. We can see price stalling at resistance, and the PMO is overbought and trying to roll over. The strongest message from this chart is that a medium-term correction is about to begin."

"Finally, the monthly chart looks very bullish for the long term (months to years). I say that primarily because the PMO has turned up from a deeply oversold reading and has passed up through its 10-EMA. This is about as bullish a picture as you are likely to see on a monthly chart. Keep in mind that this doesn't override the medium-term or short-term picture. If you study the chart carefully, you will see that quite violent price swings can occur without causing the monthly PMO to change direction. Nevertheless, the overriding message is that the long-term direction of the market is most likely to be up."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/091218_cspot.html


Like 2009, I'm just trying to minimize losses when conditions favor a downturn. Doesn't always work, and there's always the risk of missing gains....so we'll see how January goes.
 
Another 2010 outlook

"Bulls vs bears battle may be evenly split right now but according to most analysts, the stock market rally going into the new year is alive and kicking. Their forecasts of 1250-1300 are realistic enough with the 50-day moving average of 1,085 holding firm and could provide a launch pad for breakout in the coming weeks."

"When stocks are rising, it is easy to be suckered into the stock market as everybody wants a piece of the action. However, your world will come crashing down if the music stops after you invested your life savings. The key to successful investing is not to lose money or at least, not too much of it."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/179879-dont-be-suckered-by-stock-market-rally-in-2010
 
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