Nordic's Account Talk

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You made some good gains last week. I noticed there is a ton of G and F holders ahead of you - may you dispense them with ease this coming week. Use a set of dual Yamaha 200s to create the wake and clear the route.
 
Birchtree said:
You made some good gains last week. I noticed there is a ton of G and F holders ahead of you - may you dispense them with ease this coming week. Use a set of dual Yamaha 200s to create the wake and clear the route.
Click to expand...

Good luck to you also Birch, anybody who references Yamaha 200s (preferrably 4 stroke) can't be all bad...I'm partial to them myself. Last week was a green one for me for a change, finally got out of negative territory. Big question now is how long this will last before we start giving it back? I plan on staying in most/all of this week, maybe longer before I think about locking in some gains...but I might also move out of the I fund if the dollar looks like it might bounce back up. I wouldn't mind if a correction waited until early summer.
 
Economists divided

"In a report looking back over the past half century he notes that periods of high unemployment rates — greater than 6.6 percent — have been great for stocks, which have generated average annual returns of 20 percent. One reason, he says, is that high unemployment often presages big recoveries, and investors drive the market up in anticipation of the recovery."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35751553/ns/business-stocks_and_economy

Ahh, but is it the same this time 'round? :suspicious:


And this is the part that concerns many of us:

"For his part, the 95-year-old Glickenhaus, who still oversees $1 billion in assets, is siding with the pessimists. He thinks the Dow Jones industrial average will flatline, trading no higher than 11,000 for at least another 5 years. One reason he's so glum: The unemployment picture is actually a lot worse than the widely cited headline number suggests because many people have stopped looking for work and aren't counted. On Friday, the Labor Department reported unemployment held at 9.7 percent in February. A broader measure that includes frustrated part-timers and other discouraged workers was 16.8 percent."
 
From the same link. "Barton Biggs believes a recovery has started and will be led by big tech stocks and multinationals." It's time to hold strong.
 
Nordic said:
Hmm, weren't we talking about the possibility of doing this just a few weeks ago? :rolleyes:

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/2009-i-fund-benchmark-evaluation.pdf
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting that. Table 2 really threw me for a minute, showing that as of 12/31/08 the index had 25% in Italy, 20% in Switzerland, etc., but I think all those numbers are just one row too high, it makes sense when you line them up so the 25% goes with Japan, etc. Nice work by a government contractor. And the conclusion to "defer" the move even though it's a good idea is a bit maddening. :confused:

"However, between rebalancing dates, we believe that the weight of the components of the I Fund will deviate from the weight of these components in the benchmark. This appears to be at odds with the intent of the statute."

So now we'll have to wait 10 years for them to tweak the statute.

 
Tsunami said:
Thanks for posting that. Table 2 really threw me for a minute, showing that as of 12/31/08 the index had 25% in Italy, 20% in Switzerland, etc., but I think all those numbers are just one row too high, it makes sense when you line them up so the 25% goes with Japan, etc. Nice work by a government contractor. And the conclusion to "defer" the move even though it's a good idea is a bit maddening. :confused:

"However, between rebalancing dates, we believe that the weight of the components of the I Fund will deviate from the weight of these components in the benchmark. This appears to be at odds with the intent of the statute."

So now we'll have to wait 10 years for them to tweak the statute.
Click to expand...

I'm glad I'm not the only one who was questioning that percentage breakdown. Agreed that this will probably move forward at a snail's pace, but it would be nice to be able to have those emerging markets as an option...along with metals, commodities, etc.
 
printing presses full steam ahead!

"At some point, the consequences of money printing run amok will be forced upon us, and they will be painful. It will happen when the world funding crisis now playing out elsewhere eventually hits our shores. Quite likely, the United Kingdom will be the next to be taken to school. (For details on the U.S. funding crisis I expect, read "The next crisis has already begun.")"

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/currency/still-printing-money-at-full-speed.aspx
 
"Moody's says that if the economy grows 0.5 percentage points more slowly than its baseline forecast of moderate growth, if the government doesn't cut spending as much as it now thinks is likely, and if interest rates climb faster than expected, the interest the U.S. pays on its debt could climb to 15% of its revenue.


(Moody's, one of the three major debt rating companies in the U.S., is also worried about the U.K. For more on that front in the global sovereign debt crisis, see this post).


And that would be bad news indeed because it would probably cost the U.S. its AAA credit rating. And that would push U.S. interest rates yet higher and economic growth lower.

The U.S. doesn't have to start cutting spending immediately. That's fortunate, because immediate spending cuts could stall this still very fragile recovery.


But the window isn't very large -- less than three years -- and it gets narrower every day."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1704824&_blg=1,1704824


What a mess, it's becoming more difficult every month to see how this is going to end well. :notrust:
 
IFT

Well, with the dollar looking to possibly bounce off it's 50 DMA, and after gaining about 5% in the past two weeks, it seemed like a good time to save some of those gains....70G/20C/10S COB today. Charts looking toppy, been fortunate to get back into the black for the year. Left some stock exposure just in case.
 
"I can think of a dozen reasons why, in the long term, U.S. stocks will do worse than stocks in China, Brazil, India and Canada -- and maybe even in Norway, South Africa, Germany and Turkey."

"Hey, I still think there's plenty of bad news coming our way in the fourth quarter of 2010 or early in 2011, but in the short run, the U.S. stock market looks, comparatively, like the best bet in the world for equities. I'm not saying the U.S. market and economy are perfect or wonderful -- just that for this period they look better than the other guys'."

"One of the lessons that the bear markets of 2000 and 2007 should have taught us is that investors need to think both long and short term. It's not enough to put your money behind a great long-term stock and then forget about it, lulled into complacency by a belief that in the long run your investments will do fine. In the short run, we've learned, even the best long-run stocks can take beatings so horrible that most investors can't hold on for the turnaround."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/for-now-the-moneys-made-in-usa.aspx
 
yuan/dollar

"This is what is at stake: If the yuan floats, it is estimated that the U.S. will be able to "double its exports", which will help save our economy, and save millions of jobs.

On the other hand, this would create equal and offsetting damage to China. Our stock market could take off to the high ground again, and China's stock market could drop 30% by our calculations."


http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
 
Ugly downturn in the markets this afternoon for those who thought they'd exit on a green day...hopefully there weren't many. Gotta hate that early IFT deadline. :suspicious:
 
Nordic said:
Ugly downturn in the markets this afternoon for those who thought they'd exit on a green day...hopefully there weren't many. Gotta hate that early IFT deadline. :suspicious:
Click to expand...

Indeed, I thought about making an exit as I went over my charts this morning. Over the last few days the Tran had been failing to make higher highs. But I usually make IFT decisions at night when I have more time to poor over the charts and not let the emotions of the active market sway me, therfore I opted to stay in.
 
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