Nordic's Account Talk

[Nordic]

IFT

Buy low, sell high. Only question being, how much lower will it go? I left 40% in G fund powder for when that question is answered. 40G/60CSI COB today. Euros spewing more than ash these days :suspicious:

 

[Nordic]

Swenlin's take

"Looking at the intraday market action, we can see that prices were sliding into a ditch most of the day prior to the crash. It is my best guess that stops were triggered and began to accelerate sell orders as prices dropped. Welcome to the world of electronic trading.

The question I haven't heard anyone ask is what caused the sudden rebound? My guess is that the Crash Prevention Team (Treasury/Fed) stepped in and began buying S&P futures hand over fist. Can't be proved, but it seems as reasonable as any urban legend.

Bottom Line: The market is extremely oversold short-term, and we should get a bounce out of these conditions. After a bounce, we can look for a retest. If instead we see more days of sloppy sideways-to-down action, or more followthrough on today's decline, the outcome could be catastrophic. For now I think we have seen the worst for this correction, although it will probably take several weeks to work things through."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/05/market-crash.html

 

[KevinD]

Re: Swenlin's take

"Looking at the intraday market action, we can see that prices were sliding into a ditch most of the day prior to the crash. It is my best guess that stops were triggered and began to accelerate sell orders as prices dropped. Welcome to the world of electronic trading.

Thats what I think happened but what do I know.

 

[Nordic]

hungry like a wolf

"European Union finance ministers on Sunday promised to counter the "wolfpack" of the financial markets as they sought agreement on a 600 billion euro ($805 billion) plan to keep Greece's debt crisis from spreading."

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20100509&id=11470119

 

[Nordic]

"But, all to often in trading, we don't stand back far enough to see the "whole animal" or "whole picture"."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


Tough market to call right now, looks like it could go either way from here. Interesting to see Coolhand's SS give a buy signal today, and looking at those charts most of them have room to move to the upside. Trying not to get too greedy though, feeling more and more like it may be time to call it a month and be happy with some nickels. Who the hell knows :suspicious:

 

[Nordic]

headwinds

"The implied implications coming from this chart, are that troublesome times are in the not too distant future which means that investors should avoid investment strategies that focus only on "long term" returns."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


Friends don't let friends buy and hold

 

[Nordic]

Stock exchange "circuit breakers"

"Under the plan, trading of any Standard & Poor's 500 stock that rises or falls 10 percent or more within a five-minute span would be halted for five minutes. These rules, known as "circuit breakers," would be applied if the price swing occurs between 9:45 a.m. and 3:35 p.m. Eastern time. That's almost the entire trading day."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37210663/ns/business-stocks_and_economy

 

[Nordic]

F!@#$%

Flipping market is maddening. Easy come, easy go....10 percent, poof. FRTIB needs to be hung by their toes.

 

[Nordic]

Swenlin

"Bottom Line: There is no need to expect a signal change for at least a couple of weeks. We think that the most likely next signal will be a new buy signal, resulting from a rally that ends the correction; however, the market needs to stop going down before it can go up."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/05/wheres-the-sell-signal.html

 

[Nordic]

"For those who know how to trade, or have the sophisticated models to do so, the markets will continue to offer an environment to make money. During periods of extreme duress, the market will require investors to bring "knowledge to the party", or it will punish them and throw them out. Raise your knowledge level, expand your data sources, speak softly and carry a big stick. Don't let ego or the opinions from the media scare you, or make you braver than you would otherwise be given the circumstances. Dogs chase cars, but I have never actually seen a dog catch one. Be level headed, have patience and wait for "trades to come to you" ... don't chase them."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Nordic]

"But now, with the European Union teaming up with the International Monetary Fund to provide more than $1 trillion in rescue funds and the European Central Bank buying up troubled government bonds, is it time to be optimistic and look for bargains? I think it is."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/time-to-be-bold-and-buy-into-europe.aspx


Let the PIIGS fly

 

[Nordic]

Tough call

While it's tempting to jump out of the stock funds on today's rally, Tom's "shock day" trading range and Coolhand's nearing SS buy signal make an exit at this time a very tough call. I'd rather go into June fully invested for a change and hope that we are nearing a bottom of this current "wave". Timing can be a nasty critter indeed. :suspicious:

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Tough call

While it's tempting to jump out of the stock funds on today's rally, Tom's "shock day" trading range and Coolhand's nearing SS buy signal make an exit at this time a very tough call. I'd rather go into June fully invested for a change and hope that we are nearing a bottom of this current "wave". Timing can be a nasty critter indeed. :suspicious:

With only 2 IFT's timing has become everything. But even with good timing there is always the question of do I pull the trigger now or wait because I have only one IFT left. :worried::worried:

 

[Nordic]

Re: Tough call

With only 2 IFT's timing has become everything. But even with good timing there is always the question of do I pull the trigger now or wait because I have only one IFT left. :worried::worried:

Exactly, and that's where I found myself at the beginning of May, hard to pull that trigger when there was more than three weeks left in the month...just not much flexibility, nor room for error, in the TSP during these corrections/bear markets.

 

[Nordic]

Institutional Investors

Bottom line: Institutional Distribution levels are decreasing. If they converge more, with Institutional selling dropping below the 9000 level, then the market's bias will start shifting to short term positive.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Nordic]

inflation returning?

"The event? The year-over-year % change has now gone positive which means that "China has stopped exporting deflation."
This is a noteworthy event for investors because this could end up being an event-trigger for inflation to return. Should this occur, this would change the dynamics of the market ... "

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Nordic]

Jubak's take

"So I'm going to be just a little cautious yet and wait to see if Brazil and China get their growth acts together (for more on how that schedule is unfolding, see my blog posts here and here) and how far the economy in the United States will backslide before I buy even the stocks that I'm pretty sure are cheap."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/are-stocks-cheap-and-which-ones.aspx

 

[Nordic]

Tough market to figure out right now. I went from +10% on May 12 to -6% as of last week, that pig suit was a tricky one to take off...dang zipper. I took my +4% for the week and jumped into the F fund yesterday. Let's see if Tsunami's crystal ball does the trick.

 

[Nordic]

Long-term sell signal

"Bottom Line: A new long term stocks SELL signal has been generated based upon a "death cross" (opposite of "golden cross") of the 50- and 200-EMAs. Decisions in the intermediate and short term now need to take this into account. Nevertheless, short term indicators continue to be bullish and and there are now positive divergences on medium-term indicators. So we have a positive theme developing in a negative longer-term context, but we should consider it to be a temporary development."


http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/07/new-longterm-sell-signal-generated.html

 

[Nordic]

Swenlin

For what it's worth, I was just taking another look at Swenlin's latest S&P 500 chart, and recall him last summer forecasting a high of ~1200 off the March 2009 lows:

From his July 17, 2009 Chart Spotlight:

"Bottom Line: The violation of the head and shoulders neckline has proven to be a bear trap, and my opinion is that the rally from the March lows is resuming. My upside price target is about 1200 on the S&P 500. I have to say that this doesn't make any sense considering what I think I know about the economy, which is why I try to ignore fundamentals in favor of the charts."

Well done Carl. Now, pass that crystal ball around. :suspicious: