Nordic's Account Talk

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Doomsday

"Next, Nenner expects an intermediate high for stocks later this month, followed by a late-August slide that retests recent lows and then a strong rebound into September. Though the short-term outlook doesn't seem so bad, Nenner's medium-term forecast is rather gloomy.

After the September bump, the cycles suggest stocks should fall into a major low due Christmas Eve. How major? Think of the November 2008 to March 2009 period. Something like that.

As for a specific price target, Nenner believes the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) should return to the 7,000 level sometime over the next two years -- which would be a return to the levels predicted if one were to draw a simple trend line based on the average performance of the stock market over the past 50 years. But given the stock market's propensity to overshoot or undershoot fair-value levels, Nenner emphasizes that a drop to as low as 5,000 for the Dow is very possible. (The Prechter prediction put the bottom from 1,000 to 3,000, five to seven years from now.)"

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/could-the-dow-fall-to-1000.aspx


Might be time to look outside TSP to make money if the above scenario plays out anywhere close to that. TSP alone won't cut it.
 
Birchie, you have the cushion, youngsters will be able to build the cushion. Its us inbetweeners that are going to struggle to make it all work out. There's reason for pessimism. So be it, artifact of history and where we fall in the Kondratieff cycle and 4th turning of events.
 
alevin said:
Birchie, you have the cushion, youngsters will be able to build the cushion. Its us inbetweeners that are going to struggle to make it all work out. There's reason for pessimism. So be it, artifact of history and where we fall in the Kondratieff cycle and 4th turning of events.
Click to expand...

http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_28641.shtml

Interesting theory. Thanks for the pointer.

I wonder if the current government manipulation has extended the winter by not allowing the correction of our summer excesses.
 
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4-Year Cycle

"There are two conclusions we can draw at this point. First, it is possible that we have correctly identified the 2005 cycle trough, and that there will be another decline into significant price low by the end of this year. If that doesn't materialize, we will have to assume the current global financial catastrophe has knocked the cycle out of phase, and that there will be another 4-Year Cycle low toward the end of 2013. I wouldn't bet a paycheck on either one of those scenarios, and there are, of course, other possible outcomes. I hate to say it, but I think this one is going to have to be called after the fact."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/07/4year-cycle-ambiguity.html

Even Carl's crystal ball is cloudy, tough market indeed. :suspicious: Seems any way you slice it, dark clouds on the horizon.
 
More Stimulus

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Thursday that the fragile economy still needs government stimulus spending to strengthen the recovery and help reduce unemployment.

Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke did urge lawmakers to come up with a credible plan to reduce the government's record-high budget deficits in the long run. But he said they shouldn't move now to slash spending or boost taxes, or undertake some combination of both."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38359794/ns/business-stocks_and_economy

Wow. The question of what happens once those temporary stimulus jobs run out is never answered. How much are we willing to throw down the well? :notrust:
 
Another fakeout coming?

"The market action during the correction from the April top has been more than a little confusing. Prices passed up a great opportunity to go down, yet they are not showing inspiring upside action either. The wedge pattern resolving downward would not be the end of the world -- it would be an event with short-term implications -- however, taken in the context and proximity of the declining tops line support, it would not be a pleasant experience for bulls."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/07/another-fakeout-coming.html


Swenlin puts into words why I've been reluctant to attempt timing this market lately, especially with our TSP transfer limitations. August should be an interesting month indeed.
 
"A tour through earnings season shows why the outlook for stocks is not compelling. Case in point: Microsoft's solid earnings and the market's ho-hum reaction."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...Chronicles/stocks-on-the-road-to-nowhere.aspx


"Since the transportation network represents the front line of the economy -- sitting between production centers, retailers and consumers -- this is a great sign that the economy is roaring ahead even if job creation has been slow."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/top-stocks/blog.aspx?post=1790306&_blg=1,1790306


Still tough to gauge market conditions. Unfortunately I missed most of the July gains being too cautious. Last week I jumped back into equities, hopefully the uptrend continues this week.
 
Lowered growth forecast

"Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 1,200 from 1,250, reflecting a lower U.S. growth forecast."

Let's see, we have 5 months to end a measley 72 points higher from today's 1128 close, sounds like tough sledding ahead :suspicious:
 
paper or plastic?

"In the wake of news about a spike in new applications for unemployment benefits comes another potentially troubling sign: A record number of workers made hardship withdrawals from their retirement accounts in the second quarter."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38783832/ns/business-your_retirement

The longer this financial mess drags on, it's very difficult to see how BHO gets re-elected. Republican party needs to get their act together, if Bush, McCain, and Palin are the best they can come up with....c'mon man.:notrust: Where in god's name are the true leaders of this country who can actually make a difference. What will it take...
 
Re: paper or plastic?

Nordic said:
Where in god's name are the true leaders of this country who can actually make a difference. What will it take...
Click to expand...

Why be in the front of the line and take all the flack when you can stay in the background and whisper in peoples ears and make a boat load of money. :cheesy:
 
Dollar continuing to rally

"Bottom Line: After over two months of decline, the Dollar Index is rallying and looking bullish for the short-term; however, there is a rising trend line above that will present resistance, and the longer-term picture on the weekly chart shows a PMO that is falling below its EMA. My best guess at this point is that the rally will continue for a time, but that it will eventually fail and that the longer-term decline will continue down to long-term support -- around 76 on the long-term rising trend line."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/08/dollar-rally.html

That rising trend line of resistance is a long ways off yet, currently sitting at around the 86 level. I'll have to exit the I fund soon with this dollar rally...July was the time to be in.
 
Small investors fleeing the market

"The stock market rose 7 percent last month as corporate profits began rebounding, but even that increase was not enough to tempt ordinary investors. Instead, they withdrew $14.67 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in July, according to the investment institute’s estimates, the third straight month of withdrawals."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38803088/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times

Not entirely a surprise considering what's happened over the last 10 years. Hard for the average small investor to have confidence in the markets when it's actually lost value in that time. Market timers can make money, but it's been tough sledding for those "buy and holders".
 
upcoming volatility

" Next week "is the real start of a month to be nervous about," said Brian Overby, senior options analyst at online brokerage TradeKing in Charlotte, North Carolina.

"Especially, because the volatility has come off so much, there is a lot of complacency in the market. So if we get one (item of) bad news, that will cause a big jump." "

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20100910&id=12028936
 
Swenlin's take

"Bottom Line: The question now is how much faith do we put in this new buy signal. Since it is a buy signal, I would say that it gives the bulls a slight advantage, but my confidence will really blossom when prices break through the overhead resistance at about 1130 that has stopped progress three times since June."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/09/new-long-term-buy-signal.html

This market continues to be a challenging one to gauge. Lack of news seems to be allowing the markets to slowly climb....at least for now.
 
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