Nordic's Account Talk

[Nordic]

S&P upper B.B. breakout

"The rip through the upper Bollinger Band was very violent. Looking back at recent history I can find a few other places such a rip occurred. Will it have the same outcome? I cannot say it will, but I cannot help but notice it either."

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TNM9Q_HY91I/AAAAAAAAH_Q/euS-9h4woX8/s1600/spxdaily.png


Now that the elections and Fed meetings are over, let's see where we go.

 

[Nordic]

Dollar Doom

According to Swenlin:

"Finally, we zoom farther back using a monthly chart. You can see the line drawn down from the 2002 top (flag pole) with the triangle (pennant) attached to the bottom of it. I think this looks like a giant reverse pennant formation, and the implications are extremely bearish -- a downside projection of about 50 points. To me that sounds crazy, but so does what the Fed is doing.

Bottom Line: Our mechanical Trend Model has us in a neutral stance on the dollar, but the charts are bearish. There is a slight chance that the breakdown from the long-term rising trend line could be reversed, but there is certainly no fundamental reason why this should happen. The Fed is determined to devalue the dollar, and I think, based on the technicals, that they will succeed beyond their wildest dreams."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/11/us-dollar-index-breaks-long-term-support.html

Downside projection of about 50 points? As in like, down to 30 from the current level of 75??? As Joey would say, "Whoa" :blink:

 

[Nordic]

Global anger

"Resentment abroad stems from worry that Fed pump-priming will hasten the U.S. dollar's slide and cause their currencies to shoot up in value, setting the stage for asset bubbles and making a future burst of inflation more likely.

"With all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told a conference."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20101105&id=12335819

 

[Nordic]

European fears

“This policy of saving banks at the cost of breaking the back of entire countries is a disaster,” said Daniel Gros, director for the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. “Ireland is beyond fiscal plans as long as one cannot see the bottom of the losses in the banking sector,” he said. The only way to “stop the rot,” he added, “would be to let the Irish banks go under” and then use the European funds to “tide over the government until markets and the economy recover.”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40210567/ns/business-the_new_york_times


Equity futures are down sharply early this morning.

 

[Nordic]

Already looking at 2011

According to Jubak:

"It now appears that 2011 is going to be a lot less linear and a lot more volatile, while not necessarily any more or less profitable, than I thought it would be just a few scant weeks ago."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/get-ready-for-a-wild-ride-in-2011.aspx


Hell if I know, all I know is there's so much manipulation everywhere that I'm less than comfortable with any strategy I try to follow for any period of time. My contuining goal is to improve my timing somehow, which stunk in 2010...it started out great through April, but then after that was less than stellar. :suspicious:

 

[Nordic]

Secular Status

"Where we go from here is a matter of speculation. It appears to me that prices can continue back up to the top of the trading range, completing the bull market with another gain of about 100%. Perhaps it can continue to rally well above the top of the range in the beginning stages of another secular bull market, or, others have suggested, it may continue sideways for another decade or so, cycling through a series of cyclical bull and bear markets. Last, but not least, there is the possibility that prices will drop below the range and enter a devastating secular decline."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/11/secular-status.html

 

[crws]

Re: Already looking at 2011

Hell if I know, all I know is there's so much manipulation everywhere that I'm less than comfortable with any strategy I try to follow for any period of time. My contuining goal is to improve my timing somehow, which stunk in 2010...it started out great through April, but then after that was less than stellar. :suspicious:

x2 :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

You are making my hooves tingle and curl with all that bullish speculation - thanx.

 

[Nordic]

Quantitatve Easing Explained

Some of you may have seen this YouTube video already, but thought it was worth posting.

 

[Birchtree]

And now it appears we are going to have more of it - bring it on. Make them there equity assets more valuable. I'm prepared to let my profits run, and run.

 

[Nordic]

 

[Nordic]

Recession revisited

"The U.S. economy is headed for a new recession, said John Taylor, chairman and chief investment officer of FX Concepts, and that will likely benefit the dollar and weigh on commodity prices.

"It's a new recession. We're already growing, but the numbers show that the U.S. government is still the primary creator of this growth," said Taylor, who runs the world's largest currency hedge fund with assets under management of around $8.5 billion.

"I would argue that by the middle of next year, we will be in a recession and our fiscal hands will be tied.""

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20101206&id=12482256

 

[Birchtree]

Put another brick in the wall of worry - that's great.

 

[JamesE]

Brrrrr, its cold and dark in here....is this the bear cave??

 

[FAB1]

Fire the FEDeral RESERVE.

 

[Nordic]

Brrrrr, its cold and dark in here....is this the bear cave??

Believe me, I aspire to be a perma-bull like our esteemed friend Birchtree, but with so much manipulation and non-sense in the markets, I struggle to ride the equity train for long periods of time. However, that strategy backfired on me this year as I missed many weeks of gains while frolicking on the 'pad. I need to re-discover my inner bull.

 

[Birchtree]

You need some confirmation: Sam Eisenstadt, the long time former Value Line research director, says he thinks stocks are going to keep moving upward in the next six months.

 

[Nordic]

coiling for Santa

"Some analysts expect the market to trade sideways for a few days before mounting an upward move heading into the year's end.

The S&P faces resistance at the 1,228 level, which represents the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 2007-2009 bear market slide, a key technical indicator. The level was confirmed as strong resistance Tuesday after the index broke through during the session but closed below it.

Steady economic improvement should fuel stock gains through 2011, according to a Reuters poll of investors and strategists, but international concerns could limit advances in the second half of the year.

The median forecast from 50 respondents in the U.S. poll was for the S&P 500 ending 2011 at 1,325."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20101208&id=12480441


Forecast of +8% on the S&P 500 by the end of 2011, sounds like alot of up and down next year. Better than a sharp stick in the eye I guess. If timed well, should be much better than that...if only it were that easy.

 

[Nordic]

Jobs optimism

"Now consumer spending is poised to replace inventory restocking and government stimulus as the main driver of economic growth. And that means that the biggest job gains in years, along with stock market advances and higher home prices, should be just around the corner."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/2011-the-most-new-jobs-since-95-mirhaydari.aspx

 

[Birchtree]

Thanx for the fine nugget. It's always a pleasure.