Nordic's Account Talk

[travelingman]

Thanks for posting the QE UT video, good stuff. Its my first time seeing it. I think my kids will even enjoy it, maybe even learn a thing or two from it.

 

[Nordic]

Sucker's rally?

"Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader maintains what he's dubbed the Smart/Dumb Money Confidence Index. It looks at things like commercial futures hedging, equity option put-to-call ratios and mutual fund flows and boils them down to two sets of numbers: How confident the smart money is in the market and how confident the dumb money is.

Right now, the difference between the smart money and the dumb money has moved to levels that haven't been seen since the April high and that have occurred only six times since 2000."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...spx?post=a4582e2b-4121-4d1b-9fbb-64819d83fcff


Sure hate to pull the plug anytime during the last two weeks of December, but many indicators are pointing to the overly-bullish sentiment we're currently experiencing.

 

[crws]

Re: Sucker's rally?

"Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader maintains what he's dubbed the Smart/Dumb Money Confidence Index. It looks at things like commercial futures hedging, equity option put-to-call ratios and mutual fund flows and boils them down to two sets of numbers: How confident the smart money is in the market and how confident the dumb money is.

Right now, the difference between the smart money and the dumb money has moved to levels that haven't been seen since the April high and that have occurred only six times since 2000."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...spx?post=a4582e2b-4121-4d1b-9fbb-64819d83fcff


Sure hate to pull the plug anytime during the last two weeks of December, but many indicators are pointing to the overly-bullish sentiment we're currently experiencing.

good info- thx

 

[Nordic]

3 o'clock sellers have awoken from their slumber this week. :suspicious:

 

[Nordic]

Futures are down this morning, possibly an entry point for some if the pullback is strong enough. All I know is Monday put me back in the black for the first time since June :blink: Need some redemption in 2011.

 

[Nordic]

"The important thing to note is that the CSO Advance-Decline Line for breadth is confirming the price highs of the current bull market, and it is unlikely that the broad market will run into serious problems under those conditions."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2011/01/nyse-common-stock-only-indeicators.html

Next up, earnings season. Meanwhile, rising oil, low VIX, and continuing news out of Europe are concerns.

 

[Nordic]

Earnings season

"The week ahead should help matters, with earnings reports from Alcoa (AA), Intel (INTC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). The trio are expected to show higher fourth-quarter earnings and offer reasonably optimistic outlooks for the year.

The economic reports should mostly confirm the view of a recovery that's gaining strength. The two risks come on the inflation front. The Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will show energy prices are rising."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...spx?post=79ea635c-0694-4fc7-a7f4-3edf3df0306c

 

[Nordic]

glass half-empty

"Leading thinkers in the dismal science speaking at an annual convention offered varying visions of U.S. economic decline, in the short, medium and long term. This year, the recovery may bog down as government stimulus measures dry up."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20110109&id=12581007

Fundamentals will matter again eventually, QE will not last...question is when.

 

[Nordic]

VIX

"Because that is where the odds are very high for a pattern breakout ... and that could happen in the next few weeks, or next month. When it happens, the odds are for an upside breakout on the VIX which would be a negative for the market at that time ... so start putting the VIX on your radar if you haven't done so already."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


I think most of us are aware of the VIX levels recently, but some of the newer folks here may not be.

 

[FAB1]

I look at the VIX often but I am not very good at "reading" what its going to portend for the market.

 

[Nordic]

Foreclosure concerns

"Lenders are poised to take back more homes this year than any other since the U.S. housing meltdown began in 2006. About 5 million borrowers are at least two months behind on their mortgages and more will miss payments as they struggle with job losses and loans worth more than their home's value, industry analysts forecast."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41051419/ns/business-real_estate


Definitely something to watch as the year progresses.

 

[Nordic]

Too Bullish?

"So why do I sound bearish now? The rally has come a long way -- the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) has climbed more than 24% from its August low and is up nearly 94% from its bear-market low -- and looks ripe for a pullback. If you're diving into stocks now, your timing couldn't be worse."

http://money.msn.com/stock-broker-guided/are-investors-too-bullish-mirhaydari.aspx

Who knows, we've been saying this for months now. I did lighten up today, but left 40% in equities.

 

[Nordic]

Super Bowl Theory

"Although Green Bay appears to be the early favorite to win the game, investors might be better off if Pittsburgh wins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) has risen an average of 14% in the three years that the Packers won, while it has risen an average of 18.4% in the six years that the Steelers were victorious."

http://money.msn.com/how-to-invest/super-bowl-theory-says-to-go-long-marketwatch.aspx

Go Steelers!

 

[Nordic]

Daneric Dollar chart shows potential rebound in dollar

 

[Nordic]

Euro zone improving?

"European policymakers and international bankers at the Davos forum said on Saturday the euro zone's debt crisis had turned a corner and any doubt about the survival of the single currency area had passed.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told a World Economic Forum panel he did not expect the 17-nation euro zone to suffer any further major crises. Member states were drawing lessons and moving toward convergence in their economic and social policies."

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20110129&id=12845417


Would be great if true, the recent concerns over Europe's debt problems haven't helped the markets.

 

[Bquat]

Nordic,

Daneric Dollar chart shows potential rebound in dollar

Doesn't that look lake a MA pattern with the rightside (which is 95 % bearish) almost completing its down trend at the base of the M? I think if we do go bullish after the completion of the pattern. I hope it just an upward slope and not a spike. A stronger dallar could make this correction in the market continue lower.

 

[Birchtree]

Recent events would indicate that the dollar is separating from the inverse correlation of the last 2 years. From this point forward a stronger economy means a stronger dollar and also a stronger equity market. The best investment gains are made anticipating economic change before it happens.

 

[Nordic]

Nordic,

Daneric Dollar chart shows potential rebound in dollar

Doesn't that look lake a MA pattern with the rightside (which is 95 % bearish) almost completing its down trend at the base of the M? I think if we do go bullish after the completion of the pattern. I hope it just an upward slope and not a spike. A stronger dallar could make this correction in the market continue lower.

Bquat - I think Daneric is looking at a few things on his chart. 1) Elliot Wave count Minor 3 [iii] (up) next in his count, 2) A potential bounce off his long term support line, and 3) The RSI chart at the top showing an impending bounce off the lower support line.

As Birch mentions, it will be interesting to see if at some point the inverse correlation between the equity markets and the dollar reverses from what we've experienced in recent years.

 

[Nordic]

Elliott Wave Update

"If this is not a near-perfect EW 5 wave structure, then I don't know what is. Thats about the bottom line here. I am not even talking in terms of P[2] or whatever. I am merely talking about this structure here since the July low. How would anyone be able to label it anything different, at least at this juncture?

But like all 5 wave structures, there needs to be an actual top of wave 5. That is what we are looking for unless the market tells us we have interpreted this whole thing wrong. I see no evidence just yet to conclude we are wrong about this being a 5 wave structure. And that is the larger point here.

A five wave structure that completes gets corrected at the very least. The ENTIRE move is corrected. Therefore a move in prices to the previous subwave four price range is normal. This is at least to 1219 SPX. That is the theory."

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/


This, the levels of both the VIX and Dollar, weak February seasonality, and overdue pullback condition are all reasons why I parked in the G fund late last week. It gets to a point where a wall of worry is just plain ridiculous. Would be nice to get this pullback over with so we can ride the equities for awhile. QE2 is Hercules right now holding this thing up, if that's what's going on.

 

[FAB1]

Re: Elliott Wave Update

"If this is not a near-perfect EW 5 wave structure, then I don't know what is. QE2 is Hercules right now holding this thing up, if that's what's going on.

More like ATLAS. The big dude that holds up the whole planet.

I have the same mind as you, not really bearish, just looking for a better entry point as I feel one is coming around the corner.