Nordic's Account Talk

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Inverted H&S, or trading range?

"So, the key question today is: "Will the S&P make it above the 1148.24 resistance level of fail to the downside?

If it makes it past the 1148.24 level, then that would be an indication that the S&P did have a valid, inverted Head & Shoulder pattern."​

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


Well, I hope something gets clarified one way or the other, this is one of the most frustrating periods I've experienced in the markets during the last few years. Every move I've made since May has stunk up the joint :suspicious:.
 
KevinD said:
You still have an IFT...
Click to expand...

And I'm getting antsy to use it. By bearish I meant my own frame of mind, I look at the overall economy and it's hard to find anything positive about it right now, and into the intermediate future. Doesn't mean we can't make money in the TSP, but it's more difficult to stay disciplined when the bigger picture doesn't match what's going on in the short term market performance. Kudos to those who have made gains this summer.
 
Take solace in the fact that you will never see a $12 price tag for the C fun again - these prices are destined to go much higher. And that is an encumbrance to those interested in acquiring shares - the higher the price the fewer shares accumulated with available money. That's just the way the bull rides.
 
big drop coming?

"The SPX shows an ending expanding diagonal triangle count much like what occurred at the April market peaks. This is the most difficult count that the market could possibly come up with to disguise its intentions. I happen to believe its intentions are a dramatic reversal erasing all gains above 1100 SPX. A rapid price move back below 1100 in a few days (wiping out 15-17 days of advance) seems to be the way things are done in today's casino market. Why would this be any different?"


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TKD90FhcQrI/AAAAAAAAHpo/iANa1t0bcxU/s1600/indu.png
 
"With investors devouring new credit issues and lowering corporate borrowing costs, companies have lots of free money to spend. And that sets the stage for an epic bull market in stocks -- on a scale that hasn't been seen in generations -- as CEOs use cheap credit to enrich themselves and their shareholders.

How epic? Well, a couple of analysts offered realistic numbers this week that would push the S&P 500 past 2,000, with gains of as much as 85%, based on 2011 earnings. (And then there was the analyst who made headlines this week predicting Dow 38,000, bringing back memories of the famous Dow 36,000 prediction a decade ago. I'll call this less realistic.)"

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...aydari-get-ready-for-an-epic-bull-market.aspx


This should make Birch happy, although I'm sure he won't be surprised to hear the good news. Feels good to post a bullish article for a change. :D Bear one day, bull the next. All I'm asking for is a clear direction, one way or the other.
 
Institutional Investors

"So, are Institutional Investors in Accumulation or Distribution now?

Well, they are in Accumulation. BUT ... their Accumulation levels peaked on September 20th. Since then, the amount of Accumulation has been decreasing. That pausing is fairly normal right now, because the NYA Index is testing a critical, 3 month resistance line as shown on the chart."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


Another possible sign that caution is warranted this month. Wait a tick, didn't I say that in September also...and ended up missing out on the best Sept. gains in decades? :suspicious:
 
My wife says I'm alot like the "Minute Man", no not in that sense, but because I'm always prepared for the good market times. I've got 14 weeks left to clear $1M - and I'm hopeful.
 
"So all in all, a Monday spike higher would not be out of the question. Yet for the bears to be successful, they likely need a red close on Monday back under the flash crash candle high. When the market can use and hold the top of the flash crash candle (remember I'm talking Wilshire - not Dow's 30 stocks) then it can of course go ahead and challenge the old April highs. But until then, consider that the market may want to unleash some heavy selling right here and now."

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
 
Bond, Bernanke Bond

"Something is going on here ... A market decision point, or face-off could occur very soon. Such an event would appear around what happens at the 37.90 level on the TYX as seen on today's weekly Point & Figure chart.

As we speak, our Super Accelerator indicator is gaining strength on the TYX, so we could see a battle and an upside run on the 30 year yields.

*** Do not under-estimate the importance of such an event. It could be a "game changer" that causes duress in the economy along with the necessary re-evaluation of future economic forecasts and projections."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
 
Dollar

"The next real question is about whether or not we hold the 76-77 support with a currency war going on.

Right now, I think the answer is leaning toward yes for holding the support, and an abatement on the intensity of the currency fight that has been going on. We may need another week to see if this is correct, but in the meantime, the Dollar should start showing some basing attempts if it is going to hold 76-77 as a support."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


Fingering the button...yet again. This fence sitting is for the birds. :suspicious:
 
Seasonality

"As we enter the next six months of favorable seasonality, it seems likely that it will begin with a correction. I don't think that will set the tone for the entire six months, but it sure starts it out on the wrong foot.

Conclusion: Be aware of current seasonal tendencies, but first and foremost follow the primary trend."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/char...orable-6-month-seasonality-period-begins.html


Half-in the equity funds to begin the week, should be interesting. Still don't have a solid feeling on where this market is going short term.
 
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