Nordic's Account Talk

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Re: wave watching

Still have these charts in mind. Bearish as all hell, but the wave patterns are there...and we're gettin' close. Why can't I be like Birch :rolleyes:

Daneric's Elliott Waves

FRACTAL.png



P3.png
 
4 year cycle

"The most important feature is that the current cycle is about three years old, and prices are approaching a very strong level of long-term resistance just above 1500. All things being equal, it is reasonable to assume that the 4-Year Cycle (and prices) will crest later this year, probably in the area of when 6-Month seasonality switches to bearish at the end of April."

Decision Point ®: 4-Year Cycle Approaching Crest? - Chart Spotlight
 
Grumble

Cheese and rice I suck. Same story as last year, miss the rally and ride the wave down. Dammit, it can't be this hard...buy low, sell high. But I'm doing a damn good job of screwing it up. I should've taken my own advice a couple of months ago and bailed. Good thing I have 20 years to make up for it :mad: TWIIIIIIXXXXX!!!!! (for you Seinfeld freaks)
 
Re: Grumble

I see you follow Daneric. I think he's good, also Tony Caldaro (Elliott Wave Lives On, caldaro.wordpress.com). TheWaveTrading, which shows up on safehaven.com is worth a read, also shows up in cobrasmarketview.com . OK, I have goofed up multiple times since August 2008 and got some things right. I joined this website in July 2011 after recuping my losses as best I could in April-June 2011 as I detailed in my first posts with doc and jpg attachments, by "pumping", i.e., jumping from S to I and back to S as they overtook each other. I missed the boat in Jan. this year because I was stupid Dec.30 and then some, also thanks to the IFT rule, then was too stubborn to get onboard in Feb-Mar. and too greedy to just get out after one day in April!

So I pumped as well as I could from S to I to S in April and cut my losses, it was not nice, grrrr! same as you are feeling now. But at least I was half-smart April 27 -- Mar 1, as you can see. So here we are. You are having my April experience in May and I, licking my wounds for Jan-Mar of getting nothing by my own actions and choice, am OK now, and we have tomorrow and so forth ahead of us. I hope you can recupe your losses as well. I need to get as much as I can from these monthly hit-and-run's as Tom calls them (?) because I will retire in Dec. so buddy, I have a fire lit under me, I am desperate.
 
Re: Grumble

polarbear said:
Nordic, I finally checked the numbers to compare. April drop = 60 points, May so far = 100 points. Here is Mark Hulbert's not sunny view of things going on right now, next to Tom's also not sunny view. You decide in the next 1-2-3 days if you want to hang in there. Today should be a slight reprieve. In my humble opinion. What Dow Theory says about correction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch
Click to expand...

Thanks polar. I find myself at the all too familiar crossroads of waiting things out to reverse a loss, or bailing with a loss to avoid possible larger losses in the near future. I'm hoping we see a minor rally off this recent downtrend to make up some of this recent loss, then I'll probably sell into the G fund. Nothing I hate more than locking in a loss, but if I can avoid larger losses, then it's a little easier to swallow.
 
weeks away from a bottom?

"Conclusion: Current oversold indicator readings may offer hope that we will soon see a low for this correction; however, oversold conditions are approaching such extreme levels that we should anticipate that the correction will continue for several weeks before a significant low is reached.We should also note that the two examples cited occurred during a bull market advance. If a bear market has begun, the resolution could be much more severe."

Decision Point ®: Correction Low May Be Weeks Away - Chart Spotlight


Well, I should've sold in May and gone away, it's been a rough month. Time to regroup and push ahead...sell the rallies and decrease market exposure.​
 
Re: weeks away from a bottom?

I hope for a rally next week. We'll see. Clester's and Birchtree's supportive missives to me on Thursday are worth a read. Uptrend's "Scary Chart" blog entry is scary. You might also check out:
Bottoming Process or Bearish Acceleration, Chris Ciovacco, on www.safehaven.com
One More Reversal Day, Long Again, by SigmaTrading Oscillator, on same,
the older entry on www.decisionpoint.com by Steve Todd, Todd Market Forecast, on Tuesday, May 22, but prematurely optimistic because the euro dropped further after that, but not a lot. It does seem to be forming a bottom. So . . . ???
and finally a more upbeat article by Chris Ciovacco, on SH, Are The Bears Headed For The Woodshed? Friday, May 25. I hope so.

Hold tight.

I also tend to read Ord's Oracle on DP, his latest is rather neutral. OK.
You might read Tony Caldaro's www.caldaro.wordpress.com weekend update. I always read Tom's daily and his weekend update.

Two from MarketWatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/welcome-to-the-bear-market-part-2-2012-05-25 Hubba, hubba
versus
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-23/investing/31824432_1_spx-decline-vix Lawrence G. McMillan, Stocks Are Severely Oversold. I'll say, I just wish the market would see it that way next week. It seems all the Euro conniptions have already been priced in IMO, similar to Clester and Birchtree about basing, a bottom is being made. I don't think it will take weeks.

I do think the mkt will go way down in the near-term, but not the short-term (I hope), so I think we should all get out at some point.

Also, Adam Hamilton on SH: Euro to Surge, Friday, May 25. similar to Steve Todd on DP
Finally, I agree with Clester, "Sentiment is terrible. And this is the worst the bears can do?" Look at Friday eod, the news out of Spain was horrendous and the mkt more or less recovered (no great shakes, but the precipitous drop did not hold either).
 
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Re: Remain cautious

polarbear said:
Soberly written article by Jerry Slusiewicz on Stock Market Technical Analysis, Technical Analysis Trading, Investing Advice, ETF Investing, Stock Market Strategies, Financial Investment Advice :

Markets Hoping for a Rally

Worth reading.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the good reads Polar. I took advantage of today's rally and IFTd into the F fund. Uptrend's cup and handle formation in the dollar, not to mention the other commentaries, were convincing enough. I don't mind taking a break from equities (as long as they don't rally too much from here!) and see how things play out for a bit.

Best of luck.
 
Bonds

"Conclusion: Our timing model has us on a buy signal for bonds because the model is driven by prices, not our perfectly rational (but wrong) view of what bond prices ought to be doing. Also, the technical picture for bonds is excellent, although there is probably some correction or consolidation not too far ahead."

Decision Point ®: Bonds Soar - Chart Spotlight

A good many of us have jumped into the F fund, it will be interesting to see how it performs over the summer. At some point, possibly in the next week or so, we may get a short term buying opportunity in the equities funds. I still think it's wise to limit market exposure with everything that's going on at home and abroad.
 
500th post....and Asia Strategy

Whaddya know, 500th post...peanuts to some, I only have 21,000 + to catch Nnut. In other news, Secy. of Defense Panetta discussed our Asia-Pacific defense strategy at a recent forum. Many years ago I remember my Ecology instructor talking about the world's resources. Being somewhat of a pessimist/realist, he explained to his captive audience what his thoughts were on how the world's population would allocate those resources. Like rats in a cage, it would come down to the biggest hombres facing off for their survival. If human history is any indication, it's difficult to argue against that scenario playing out at some point in the future. Mr. Panetta, do good work my friend.

Panetta: Majority of US warships moving to Asia - World news - Asia-Pacific - msnbc.com
 
Re: 500th post....and Asia Strategy

Nordic said:
Whaddya know, 500th post...peanuts to some, I only have 21,000 + to catch Nnut. In other news, Secy. of Defense Panetta discussed our Asia-Pacific defense strategy at a recent forum. Many years ago I remember my Ecology instructor talking about the world's resources. Being somewhat of a pessimist/realist, he explained to his captive audience what his thoughts were on how the world's population would allocate those resources. Like rats in a cage, it would come down to the biggest hombres facing off for their survival. If human history is any indication, it's difficult to argue against that scenario playing out at some point in the future. Mr. Panetta, do good work my friend.

Panetta: Majority of US warships moving to Asia - World news - Asia-Pacific - msnbc.com
Click to expand...

Congrats on the 500th post!!!
 
Re: 500th post....and Asia Strategy

Nordic said:
Whaddya know, 500th post...peanuts to some, I only have 21,000 + to catch Nnut. In other news, Secy. of Defense Panetta discussed our Asia-Pacific defense strategy at a recent forum. Many years ago I remember my Ecology instructor talking about the world's resources. Being somewhat of a pessimist/realist, he explained to his captive audience what his thoughts were on how the world's population would allocate those resources. Like rats in a cage, it would come down to the biggest hombres facing off for their survival. If human history is any indication, it's difficult to argue against that scenario playing out at some point in the future. Mr. Panetta, do good work my friend.

Panetta: Majority of US warships moving to Asia - World news - Asia-Pacific - msnbc.com
Click to expand...
I read about it as well. Sometimes, with all the economic turbulence and cutbacks, I worry about my job and base closures where I am. But with the situation what it is in China - their territorial disputes with Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines - I think the free world will want us policing the area for several decades. The situation will demand our presence there, no matter how many trillions of dollars in debt we are. And the irony is that we'll probably never end up firing a shot at each other, just like the Cold War.

So any ideas where we might bulk up our naval presence? The marines are scaling back in Okinawa, but we have naval bases at White Beach (Okinawa), Sasebo, and Yokosuka (both mainland Japan). I guess we'll start operating more in Australia, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Subic Bay (Philippines) reopen.

Anyway, congrats on the big 5-0-0!
 
Re: 500th post....and Asia Strategy

Nordic, at this point, it's less about resources an more about distribution (at least from what I read, and discuss with many missionaries I know from around the world). There is much rice rotting around the world that is either being hoarded by the powerful, or held hostage (Haiti, for example). Releif charities are more often hindered by the politics of a situation than for lack of supply of neccessities.
 
one more wave lower?

Take a look at Daneric's latest wave count. Possibly one more wave down to the 1256ish area before the next wave 2 up in this current downtrend? If only it were that easy...but it does give us something to look for.



"If I were to take a guess at the target area of wave (v) of [v], the e-minis shows a likely spot - the unclosed gap up from 12/30/11 to 1/3/12 that is still open from 1253 to 1259.75. On the SPX the area is about 1256 SPX."

Daneric's Elliott Waves

spx30.png
 
keep it going

I jumped into equities on yesterday's strong rally. Let's see if this Wave 2 keeps going.

"Primary count is that the top of wave [a] of Minor 2 occurred at today's price high. The price peak represented already a 40% retrace of the entire decline from 1422 to 1266 SPX. So the evidence is strong that Minor 2 is occurring.

Minor 2 should normally be a sharp 5-3-5 zigzag up. It certainly has been sharp in the [a] wave. Now we are looking for a wave pullback and then [c] wave to finish Minor 2 up."

Daneric's Elliott Waves

spx30.png
 
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