Nordic's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Euphoria Stage?

"During this final phase the character of the intermediate cycles should change and instead of a modest move above the prior intermediate top we will see a strong acceleration and a significant and sustained breakout above the September high of 1475. All of the traders that have convinced themselves that QE is having less and less effect are about to be caught off guard as we move into the euphoria phase of the bull market."

Euphoria Stage | Toby Connor | Safehaven.com





Not sure if I'll try to time an exit for the second week of December or just ride the whole month out in the I fund. January could be a wild ride....
 
Short term trend and USD

"My view is that price has not completed yet the Triple Zag off the November lows, instead price has began a pullback wave (B) of the third Zig Zag that should bottom in the range 1416-1410 from where I expect the kick off of the last wave (C) up of (Z). In other words we should have the usual Santa rally into year end."

SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP | TheWaveTrading | Safehaven.com


The dollar appears to be in the process of forming two right shoulder formations, one long term and one short term...which usually results in a decline from the neckline. A declining dollar should benefit the I fund more than the other funds, which is why I plan on staying 100% I fund through the end of the month. Hopefully the "fiscal cliff" fiasco doesn't screw up the works :)

history.gif
 
Re: Short term trend and USD

"So long as bears do not inflict a serious technical damage by reclaiming the pivot support at 1398 in my opinion this pullback will eventually be bought."

It would appear the Transports are setting the stage for a move higher.
 
Re: Short term trend and USD

"The dollar appears to be in the process of forming two right shoulder formations, one long term and one short term...which usually results in a decline from the neckline. A declining dollar should benefit the I fund more than the other funds, which is why I plan on staying 100% I fund through the end of the month. Hopefully the "fiscal cliff" fiasco doesn't screw up the works :)"


So much for staying in I Fund through the end of the month. I bailed to G Fund yesterday as the "cliff" nonsense did not appear to be near resolution before next weeks deadline. I avoided today's loss, but am also out of IFTs if the clowns do happen to pull a rabbit out of the hat over the weekend or early next week. It will be interesting to see how the markets react in January even if they do reach some kind of deal. When you think about it, this should be basic businees for Congress to take care of, but instead it's turning into a show over tying one's shoes. Debt ceiling negotiations should be entertaining...
 
Re: Short term trend and USD

Nordic said:
"The dollar appears to be in the process of forming two right shoulder formations, one long term and one short term...which usually results in a decline from the neckline. A declining dollar should benefit the I fund more than the other funds, which is why I plan on staying 100% I fund through the end of the month. Hopefully the "fiscal cliff" fiasco doesn't screw up the works :)"


So much for staying in I Fund through the end of the month. I bailed to G Fund yesterday as the "cliff" nonsense did not appear to be near resolution before next weeks deadline. I avoided today's loss, but am also out of IFTs if the clowns do happen to pull a rabbit out of the hat over the weekend or early next week. It will be interesting to see how the markets react in January even if they do reach some kind of deal. When you think about it, this should be basic businees for Congress to take care of, but instead it's turning into a show over tying one's shoes. Debt ceiling negotiations should be entertaining...
Click to expand...

Thanks, I hadn't noticed it, what an excellent find!

View attachment 21679
 
Intermediate term

"We can now state positively that 1448 was the top of wave "B" of an intermediate A-B-C correction which started on September 14 at 1474. This decline has a reasonable chance of reaching about 1320 sometime in early February before it is complete. We will reassess this target as we near it. We should be able to make some confirming projections in the late stages of the decline."
Market Turning Points | Andre Gratian | Safehaven.com


I can't say for sure, but I'll probably stay in G for a while until some of the DC smoke clears. This level of uncertainty can't be healthy for the markets, but time will tell.
 
Re: Intermediate term

Birchtree said:
You are looking at a purrfect wall of worry - c'mon climb up it and prosper.
Click to expand...

Mr. Betula, you could very well be correct in the short term, but with the climbing VIX and developing wave counts, I'm inclined to playing this one cautiously. BTW, congratulations on your excellent 2012 returns.
 
Re: Intermediate term

Vix is now -3.22 to 19.50 down 14% on its way to below the 15 level once again. Soon the SPX will be back above the 1420 level indicating little damage has been done to the bullish trend.
 
Boehner walks out on Sandy relief bill

"For the Speaker to just walk out is inexcusable," Representative Peter King, a New York Republican, told reporters. "It's wrong and I'm saying that as a member of the Republican Party."

Bipartisan outrage after House skips vote on $60 billion Sandy aid bill - NBC Politics


According to Rep. King, Boehner said "I'm not going to talk to you people..." last night as he left the House, directed at the Congressional members representing Sandy affected areas. There goes a few more Republican seats.
 
IN on dollar trend and LMBF

I'm hesitant to jump in here with such a large move in a two day period of time, but LMBF method suggests I fund again. Dollar is still forming a right shoulder, let's see how it turns out.
 
EFA breakout?

"The more a major level is tested without violent rejection, the more likely it is to eventually be breached. With not many traders positioned for developed world economies to see a major, year-long breakout, this ETF certainly merits your attention going forward as another area to benefit from capital rotation."

A Major Breakout for Developed Markets? - Side Street - TheStreet

2f65ed7078da04b6e3f074164c6bf7b3.png



This, combined with a possible breakdown in the dollar, would be bullicious for the I Fund. However all bets are off if Congress doesn't get its act together pretty soon.
 
new S&P target

"We can finally say with supporting evidence that the S&P 500 has broken free of its five-month reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The initial target of the break is the round number of 1,500, but as explained on Investor Place's Jan. 10 Daily Market Outlook, "If the neckline at 1,466 is broken on a close, and with greater-than-average volume, a new high for the trend will have been established, and… the target would be at about 1,589.""

Technical breakthrough sets new target for S&P 500- MSN Money
 
Re: new S&P target

"We've bled so much money out of equities that we have a very long way to go before we get to the point where everyone who is going to buy stocks has done so."
Mom and Pop are not out shopping for the latest VL Destino with 638 horsepower so they can race to catch the stampede to much higher levels. My yearly target remains 1700 and we might do more than that.
 
VIX

"The current VIX reading is lower than any reading since 2007, so we must wonder if the VIX may be descending into another extended period of bull market confidence, characterized by a lower VIX range with a bottom of about 10. We can't rule that out, but we have so many other indicators that are overbought and long-term overhead resistance at about 1550, that my best guess is that the VIX is warning us of an impending price top, not the beginning of a new bull market era."

Decision Point ®: Analyzing the VIX - Chart Spotlight


I switched over to 100 S earlier this week as it was outperforming the I fund. Hoping to stay invested going into February before taking a breather. Most analysts I've read lately are calling for some kind of pullback any time now that we're closing over 1500. Buy low, sell high.
 
overbought

"While indicators may be topping in very overbought territory, a price top is not guaranteed. Nevertheless, conditions are less than ideal for making new commitments to the long side, and increased caution is warranted."

Decision Point ®: Very Overbought Market - Chart Spotlight


I've been in G since Feb. 1st, waiting to see how the rest of the month plays out. Risk is looking higher than reward at this point...looking for a possible entry point in the 1460-1440 range.
 
Intermediate term

"We are at the initial stages of a likely multi-week pullback, which will be confirmed once bears reclaim the support at 1498.
If my preferred long-term count is correct the projected target should be located in the range 1460 - 1437 provided a break down of the September's peak at 1474.51."

SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP | TheWaveTrading | Safehaven.com


We'll see. Hard to say where an intermediate-term correction reverses, but I'll try to be patient waiting for an entry point.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
155
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Optimism with Caution
Replies
1
Views
334
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Just what the bulls needed - a boring Fed
Replies
0
Views
145
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker - Buying the December Dips
Replies
0
Views
242
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Dip, pullback, or correction? What's on deck?
Replies
0
Views
124
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top