-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Nordic's Account Talk
- Thread starter Nordic
- Start date
Nordic
Member
China follow-up...social unrest in general.
"The good news is that the VIX has been working its way lower over the past thee months, but the intersection of its resistance and support lines are coming to an apex exactly one month from today.
That means that (before then) the VIX will have a breakout from the merging resistance/support lines. If it is down, it will probably meander down with the market becoming more positive as time goes on. However, if it breaks to the upside, it is likely to be a fast thrust up with some kind of turmoil-related-event that affects the market."
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
As always, draw your own conclusions. This possibility just adds to the warning of a very weak start to 2012 by various sources.
That means that (before then) the VIX will have a breakout from the merging resistance/support lines. If it is down, it will probably meander down with the market becoming more positive as time goes on. However, if it breaks to the upside, it is likely to be a fast thrust up with some kind of turmoil-related-event that affects the market."
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
As always, draw your own conclusions. This possibility just adds to the warning of a very weak start to 2012 by various sources.
Nordic
Member
Inverted...cup & handle?
We talk about inverted head and shoulders all the time, but is there such thing as an inverted cup and handle formation, such as the one that has formed since the beginning of October? Is there a typical price action related to this? Am I reaching? :toung:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=$SPX
We talk about inverted head and shoulders all the time, but is there such thing as an inverted cup and handle formation, such as the one that has formed since the beginning of October? Is there a typical price action related to this? Am I reaching? :toung:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=$SPX
Nordic
Member
Remain cautious
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-technical-analysis-euro-s2526p/12/27/2011/id/38563?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
Another source indicating we could be due for a severe pullback sometime early in 2012. My goal is to remain fully invested going into the new year, but then getting defensive after the first trading day or so. The charts I'm seeing make sense with the EW counts and overhead resistance in the current economic climate...but it will still be interesting to watch the next couple of months play out with "everyone" being aware of the warning signs. Will the markets cooperate with our counts?
"In conclusion, I remain bearish. If the current count is correct, the market is trying to lure the last of the buyers on board before turning south in a big way. My current view is that the technical breakout being staged is likely a head fake, paving the way for a nasty reversal. Trade safe."
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-technical-analysis-euro-s2526p/12/27/2011/id/38563?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
Another source indicating we could be due for a severe pullback sometime early in 2012. My goal is to remain fully invested going into the new year, but then getting defensive after the first trading day or so. The charts I'm seeing make sense with the EW counts and overhead resistance in the current economic climate...but it will still be interesting to watch the next couple of months play out with "everyone" being aware of the warning signs. Will the markets cooperate with our counts?
Nordic
Member
EW count
This from Daneric:
"All is going according to the EW primary count. The SPX has met the minimum Minor 2 target range of 1269 - 1310 SPX. It appears we are missing waves iv and v of (c) , so the completion of each should signal the top of Minor 2. An ideal range would be 1293-1310."
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
Today could be the wave iv down he mentions, possibly followed by the final wave v up to conclude Minor 2. After Minor 2 (1293 - 1310) sometime in January, I'll be looking to spend some time in Lily city. That's the plan for now.
This from Daneric:
"All is going according to the EW primary count. The SPX has met the minimum Minor 2 target range of 1269 - 1310 SPX. It appears we are missing waves iv and v of (c) , so the completion of each should signal the top of Minor 2. An ideal range would be 1293-1310."
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
Today could be the wave iv down he mentions, possibly followed by the final wave v up to conclude Minor 2. After Minor 2 (1293 - 1310) sometime in January, I'll be looking to spend some time in Lily city. That's the plan for now.
Last edited:
Nordic
Member
wave watching
I jumped to F fund after the bounce on Tuesday, and will wait a bit before re-entering equities. Could be rough waters right around the bend.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
"Technicals seem to be waning. There is an RSI negative divergence on the hourly SPX.
Sentiment indicators have reached levels that are to be expected for a wave 2 of this size and even more so. For instance AAII bull ratio reached 74% with today's survey. That level of bullishness is rare in the past 6 years.
So everything is "in place" for a major imminent downturn Minor wave 3 which could be as big in size as Intermediate (3) that collapsed the markets in 2008.
Does the market have another spasm higher? If it does, my guess is it will trigger a flood of selling as it hits resistance layers.
Combine heavy selling + waning buyers + lack of shorts = a swift price downturn."
I jumped to F fund after the bounce on Tuesday, and will wait a bit before re-entering equities. Could be rough waters right around the bend.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
"Technicals seem to be waning. There is an RSI negative divergence on the hourly SPX.
Sentiment indicators have reached levels that are to be expected for a wave 2 of this size and even more so. For instance AAII bull ratio reached 74% with today's survey. That level of bullishness is rare in the past 6 years.
CONCLUSION
All in all, I am pretty bearish considering the wave pattern is complete or almost complete. Sentiment is more than ample bullish, in fact its almost scary bullish considering credit lockup(s) occurring in Europe. Technicals seem to be waning and diverging. And there are a lot of non-confirmations.So everything is "in place" for a major imminent downturn Minor wave 3 which could be as big in size as Intermediate (3) that collapsed the markets in 2008.
Does the market have another spasm higher? If it does, my guess is it will trigger a flood of selling as it hits resistance layers.
Combine heavy selling + waning buyers + lack of shorts = a swift price downturn."
Nordic
Member
Re: wave watching
Not all of us have oceanics to fall back on sir. In about 20 years I need to have enough to get that place on the lake I've been dreaming about so I can shove off with my 225 Yamaha purring behind me anytime I want. I love nothing better than squatting in equities for months on end, but the recent market volatility isn't making it easy to do that and grow the tug boat at the same time. One day sure, just not right now. Could be wrong, but indicators aren't looking very solid at this point.
Not all of us have oceanics to fall back on sir. In about 20 years I need to have enough to get that place on the lake I've been dreaming about so I can shove off with my 225 Yamaha purring behind me anytime I want. I love nothing better than squatting in equities for months on end, but the recent market volatility isn't making it easy to do that and grow the tug boat at the same time. One day sure, just not right now. Could be wrong, but indicators aren't looking very solid at this point.
Nordic
Member
Still in F fund, waiting to see how this month plays out. Keeping a close eye on Daneric's prediction of an impending steep downtrend following the conclusion of this wave 2 we're currently in, possibly sometime this month. Charts and sentiment seem to confirm some level of caution going forward. Will be interesting to see how earnings season affects EW structure.
"None of the counts and variations have changed today. Its like a broken record. Could be an ending diagonal count with a higher high somewhere between 1285 - 1300 or 2 had topped and the market is distributing and rolling over. In both counts the market will be ending wave 2 up and wave 3 down should kick in.
Again, for the umpteenth time, ideally if you have a double zigzag structure, the last zigzag will end higher in price than the first zigzag. That has already occurred as a minimum on the DJIA but has not been confirmed by the Wilshire5000 and S&P500.
We patiently await to see if that guideline will be true on the SPX."
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
"None of the counts and variations have changed today. Its like a broken record. Could be an ending diagonal count with a higher high somewhere between 1285 - 1300 or 2 had topped and the market is distributing and rolling over. In both counts the market will be ending wave 2 up and wave 3 down should kick in.
Again, for the umpteenth time, ideally if you have a double zigzag structure, the last zigzag will end higher in price than the first zigzag. That has already occurred as a minimum on the DJIA but has not been confirmed by the Wilshire5000 and S&P500.
We patiently await to see if that guideline will be true on the SPX."
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
Nordic
Member
Another source talking about the likely end of Minor 2.
http://www.minyanville.com/business...95?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
"In conclusion, I remain long-term bearish on this market, and unless the market can break overhead resistance, I am now short- and medium-term bearish as well. Based on the wave structure, I believe something is "destined" to occur in the very near future to wake investors up from Bullish Happy Fun Land, and this wake-up call will rapidly turn sentiment from bullish to bearish. When that happens, there will be a fast stampede for the exits."
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/business...ave-patterns/1/11/2012/id/38795#ixzz1jAs99q5o
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/business...ave-patterns/1/11/2012/id/38795#ixzz1jAs99q5o
http://www.minyanville.com/business...95?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
Nordic
Member
Wall Street manipulation?
"Wall Street isn't looking that far ahead, I guess. But folks on Main Street, the ones who are watching at-the-pump prices rise again as those holiday bills come due, or are trying to find a nice rental home, already know what's coming. And it's not good."
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=051ce2a0-72aa-4417-b6c3-3d6d2171007a
It's frustrating missing out on some of these gains, but I'm just trying to meet my monthly goals and get out. I'm still not sold on this rally and will just wait for a better buying opportunity. Economic fundamentals don't seem to matter anymore.
"Wall Street isn't looking that far ahead, I guess. But folks on Main Street, the ones who are watching at-the-pump prices rise again as those holiday bills come due, or are trying to find a nice rental home, already know what's coming. And it's not good."
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=051ce2a0-72aa-4417-b6c3-3d6d2171007a
It's frustrating missing out on some of these gains, but I'm just trying to meet my monthly goals and get out. I'm still not sold on this rally and will just wait for a better buying opportunity. Economic fundamentals don't seem to matter anymore.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Wall Street manipulation?
With the idea that Primary 3 is still in its early stages of unwinding to the upside as it relates to the NYSE group of stocks we will see many multiple 3 digit Dow up days in a row in the future. As a discount mechanism the omnipotent market is telling us something. Go Newt.
With the idea that Primary 3 is still in its early stages of unwinding to the upside as it relates to the NYSE group of stocks we will see many multiple 3 digit Dow up days in a row in the future. As a discount mechanism the omnipotent market is telling us something. Go Newt.
Nordic
Member
Did Bernanke Break the Dollar Rally?
http://www.minyanville.com/business...94?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
This is my first semi-bullish post in quite some time. I'm inclined to see how the first half of February plays out before moving back into equities.
"If Bernanke can break the dollar rally and get the dollar moving south again, there is no way we are going to experience a deflationary bear market this year. In this scenario 2012 would be the beginning of an inflationary period, culminating in a dollar crisis at the next three-year cycle low, due in late 2014. If this is what is about to unfold then we need to alter our expectations from a deflationary bear market to an inflationary bull market."
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/business...cious-metals/1/30/2012/id/39094#ixzz1kxOpKHp4
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/business...cious-metals/1/30/2012/id/39094#ixzz1kxOpKHp4
http://www.minyanville.com/business...94?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
This is my first semi-bullish post in quite some time. I'm inclined to see how the first half of February plays out before moving back into equities.
Nordic
Member
Re: Remain cautious
Gimme a break, this leg up has turned into the ridiculous. Not that long ago, uttering the name Greece or whispering "downgrade" sent the markets into the tank. Now the markets are wearing Kevlar and nuttin' can bring them down. Congrats to those staying invested and making money.
Gimme a break, this leg up has turned into the ridiculous. Not that long ago, uttering the name Greece or whispering "downgrade" sent the markets into the tank. Now the markets are wearing Kevlar and nuttin' can bring them down. Congrats to those staying invested and making money.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Re: Remain cautious
You gotta play the hand that's being dealt. The market provided us with 4 Aces, no make that 5, at the end of Dec. Long term, I think we all know how this game is gonna end.
You gotta play the hand that's being dealt. The market provided us with 4 Aces, no make that 5, at the end of Dec. Long term, I think we all know how this game is gonna end.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Remain cautious
Oh, it will end at some point. But consolidations exist for one reason alone, to rebalance sentiment. The brunt of the SPX consolidation is still yet to come. Before then I suspect we'll see more spectacular near verticle rally just around the corner - and I certainly don't want to sell out too early and miss that parabolic acceleration.
Oh, it will end at some point. But consolidations exist for one reason alone, to rebalance sentiment. The brunt of the SPX consolidation is still yet to come. Before then I suspect we'll see more spectacular near verticle rally just around the corner - and I certainly don't want to sell out too early and miss that parabolic acceleration.
