Nordic's Account Talk

[Nordic]

Ill-timed spending cuts in weak economy.


“We sure missed a big window of opportunity to reduce our debt in those strong years when asset prices were booming,” said Carmen Reinhart, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and co-author of "This Time Is Different," a history of debt crises. “Instead we’re stuck trying to do it now, when the economy is so weak.”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43966345/ns/politics-the_new_york_times/

 

[nnuut]

Ill-timed spending cuts in weak economy.


“We sure missed a big window of opportunity to reduce our debt in those strong years when asset prices were booming,” said Carmen Reinhart, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and co-author of "This Time Is Different," a history of debt crises. “Instead we’re stuck trying to do it now, when the economy is so weak.”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43966345/ns/politics-the_new_york_times/

Reminds me of a Government creating a Leviathan of a Health Care program when we can't afford the one that we have, that is over 40 Trillion $$$ in the red.

​

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43966345/ns/politics-the_new_york_times/

 

[Nordic]

Reminds me of a Government creating a Leviathan of a Health Care program when we can't afford the one that we have, that is over 40 Trillion $$$ in the red.

View attachment 14749​

Indeed, it doesn't help does it?

 

[Nordic]

Re: Fearful Investors

S&P needs to get crackalackin if this bull is to continue. The current administration really needs to be careful here, folks are fed up and there's currently nothing positive on the economic horizon. Except for gold of course, wouldn't it be nice to have a metals fund?

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Zi_N15b2tT8/TjcJ5KkSnEI/AAAAAAAAJms/sKhVACvw8Vc/s1600/spxdaily.png

 

[Nordic]

I almost jumped ship to the G Fund today, but changed my mind at the last second. Next week will be interesting, we'll see if those of us who remained in over the weekend chose wisely or not. Even if the bozos do pass something in time, that doesn't mean there still won't be a selloff. High stakes, just not sure how it will play out.

Well now we know. Shoulda, woulda, coulda. I feel like a deer caught in the headlights, smack. :blink:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Well now we know. Shoulda, woulda, coulda. I feel like a deer caught in the headlights, smack. :blink:

Dang, that was a TRAIN... wreck...

 

[Nordic]

Dang, that was a TRAIN... wreck...

That it is, a ton of money being lost the past two weeks.

 

[Birchtree]

This correction has been an excellent experience for me because I needed to see if I would survive this type of hell - so far so good but of course it's not over yet. I feel more comfortable with my strategy now going forward into my later years - never panic unless the other guy has bigger fire power.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

That it is, a ton of money being lost the past two weeks.

Trillions I say, Trillions...

 

[Nordic]

"Target range is 1199 - 1215 SPX for a wave [iv] price peak. Virgin space should remain untouched I think sellers will come in at 1200."

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4SqC0mALou8/TkG07yjrKwI/AAAAAAAAJrc/RbtiWmVqbDo/s1600/spx60.png


One step at a time to regain these losses. Sell around the 1200 range and avoid wave [v] down. If this is the beginning of the next bear market, these down waves will be important to miss, especially the ones Daneric identifies in this P3 chart. That's just gnarly.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ps4laWiXQdY/TkBGCcyvcaI/AAAAAAAAJqs/UFS-HPlS8YQ/s1600/wilshire+weekly.png

 

[Nordic]

Fugly

"Any long-time reader of my blog knows how long-term bearish I have been. In a nutshell I propose the credit-induced rise of cycle wave V from 1980-2000 will be completely retraced (and perhaps then some). This means DOW 1000.

This is proposed P[3] and it will rip your face off. New highs above 1370? Good luck. We had that sliver of a "window" and it seemed to have closed. New highs above 1370 would be an absolute span of cognitive dissonance never before achieved in the history of mankind because the genie has been unleashed and stuffing him back in the bottle will be almost downright impossible.After all, EW theory proposes the markets must go where they must (following social mood), and the Grand Supercycle count calls for a move back to DOW 1000. Not in 10 years mind you. The FED is ready to fail."

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X9GNCLojVho/TkLwyKZ4vUI/AAAAAAAAJsA/jCykKnC2oVI/s1600/spx60.png

Daneric sounds slightly bearish here. DOW 1000??

 

[Nordic]

More selling to come?

"The fact that the PBI has reached very oversold levels may offer some people hope that an important bottom is near, but history indicates that that would be a false hope. As you can see in two prevous periods where the PBI has gotten to these levels, the best that can be hoped for is that the formation of an important bottom may be just beginning. In those previous periods it took several months for the bottoming process to be completed."

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2011/08/percent-buy-index-pbi-deeply-oversold.html


I've read basically the same message from multiple sources. I'll be looking for an exit around 1200 on the S&P possibly sometime next week, even if it's only 1190 I'll probably take it. Might be time to join the one or two day play gang for awhile, less market exposure seems appropriate right now.

 

[Bquat]

Re: More selling to come?

Some took the 1188 peak today. Very close to 1190. Had weakness this afternoon. I hope Monday is positive for you.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: More selling to come?

Nordic,

That was a good read from Swenlin. "In fact, the price decline that generated the recent low PBI is relatively small compared to the two previous ones, so it is likely that we will see something completely different from what has happened before." I'm on the outlook for a parabolic big V rebound - especially with leaks of a Fed shock and awe coming.

 

[Nordic]

Re: More selling to come?

Some took the 1188 peak today. Very close to 1190. Had weakness this afternoon. I hope Monday is positive for you.

Indeed, I almost pulled the trigger on Friday. We'll see what next week has in store for us. Are you in or out Bquat....target in mind?

 

[Nordic]

Re: More selling to come?

Nordic,

That was a good read from Swenlin. "In fact, the price decline that generated the recent low PBI is relatively small compared to the two previous ones, so it is likely that we will see something completely different from what has happened before." I'm on the outlook for a parabolic big V rebound - especially with leaks of a Fed shock and awe coming.

Hey Mr. Birch, that's a big reason I'm hesitant about jumping out of equities. It sounds like the Fed may move on QE3 sooner rather than later...would hate to miss that.

 

[Nordic]

Looking for 1100ish

"Squiggle chart shows five waves down from yesterday's peak. Could be a wave (ii) bounce coming then (iii) of (v) should work the market lower toward the 1100 or lower SPX goal."

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8G_lT_lkK2M/Tk10wm8A4cI/AAAAAAAAJuE/2BYy3_tzbMY/s1600/spx60.png


I managed to miss today's ugliness, and am now looking at possibly jumping back in around the 1100 area on the SPX. At this point, I'm just trying to catch the upwaves of this downtrend. Uptrend identified the 975 area as a possibly entry point, so I have that in mind also. Dollar appears to possibly be forming a bottom before it's next move higher. The market feels like a crapshoot right now, with this kind of volatility there's not much room for error in our timing. Best of luck.

 

[Nordic]

Dollar possibly going lower?

Some food for thought for those looking at jumping back into equities in the coming days. Daneric's chart below suggests the dollar may have room to fall lower still, benefitting the I fund during the A and C legs of the ABC relief rally.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b7dl0JXx97Q/Tk5KRM7GeYI/AAAAAAAAJvE/FYS3cP46Yzw/s1600/dollar+daily.png

 

[Nordic]

Bear rules

"While we just recently had technical confirmation that we are in a bear market, the bear has actually been around since the May 2 top, and the coincidence of price and indicator tops was an early clue that the up trend had stalled and may have been in trouble. Since the price break in August we need to consider overbought indicator tops as being cracks in thin ice."


http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2011/09/bear-market-rules-apply.html


Nothing surprising here, Tom has been talking about this for awhile. Caution warranted going forward.

 

[Nordic]

Eurozone trouble

"On the other hand, the crisis is potentially worse this time around because the European Central Bank is much less able to intervene as a lender of last resort than the U.S. Federal Reserve was in 2008."

http://money.msn.com/investing/get-ready-for-the-next-crash-jubak.aspx


Some of these problems just won't disappear. I'll probably jump to the G Fund with my remaining 40% if we get any kind of bounce in the next week or so. Sell those rallies.