MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's How Friday's Jobs Report Will Move The Markets

"...an unambiguously good number should cause the dollar to rally, Treasuries to sell off, and rates to rise as investors re-calibrate toward the possibility of tapering sooner rather than later — whereas a bad number may or may not have the opposite effect."
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[JimmyJoe]

why not 2000? :nuts:

I'm all for it.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sold DUST this morning @ $31.05 for a six day gain of 8.2%. I'm going to sit on cash rather than move to NUGT right now, until a clear trend is in place. Seems this could go either way.

Holding my SRTY, which is up, surprisingly, even though the markets are higher.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Just looked at a multitude of stocks that I monitor. The majority of them are getting slaughtered today.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

$VIX is going higher. Bought VXX @ $12.35.

The tide goes in, and the tide goes out.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

S Fund, I Fund and F Fund have all three clearly rolled over. C Fund is high in the tree, clinging to it's last branches, but it's grip is getting tired and weak. Expect it to fall next week.

I believe today is the beginning of the drop for the rest of the market. Here's what happened during the last three downturns:

21 trading days, -7.5% loss
17 trading days, -4.9% loss
14 trading days, -4.9% loss

AVG:

17 trading days, -5.8% loss

That would put us around 1672 on the S&P. Timeline: about two weeks from today.

Rinse and repeat.

 

[wavecoder]

market just needs a breather. i expect the strong price action to continue in the medium-long term.

glad i sold my IWM yesterday for a nice 7% gain. didn't like what i was seeing and got out (weak price action / sell pressure + fear & greed index in the extreme greed territory)

 

[MrJohnRoss]

market just needs a breather. i expect the strong price action to continue in the medium-long term.

glad i sold my IWM yesterday for a nice 7% gain. didn't like what i was seeing and got out (weak price action / sell pressure + fear & greed index in the extreme greed territory)

Exactly. It's not the end of the world, it's just that the market moves in cycles. The down cycle has finally caught up with the C Fund.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The URTY/SRTY system will continue to hold SRTY. Nice gain of 5.1% today

The NUGT/DUST system continues to hold DUST, but I bailed out yesterday. Bummer. Today's gain was 7.3%.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Not at all surprised to see a countertrend move in the markets today after yesterday's sharp sell-off. What does surprise me is that the market is not falling due to the unexpectedly robust jobs report. That SHOULD mean that the Fed is going to start easing off of the gas pedal sooner rather than later, which should scare the markets. Simple logic doesn't always work that way, because the world is never quite that simple. However, I still think downward momentum is going to catch up with the markets, and we're going to continue our slide lower for another few weeks.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Was shocked this morning when I saw my VXX position had gone from yesterday's buy price of $12.35 to over $50 right out of the gate.

Then I read this article about the reverse split. Dang it. Thought I had hit a home run.

[h=1]How To Prepare For The Upcoming iPath VIX Futures ETN Reverse Split[/h]

 

[MrJohnRoss]

My apologies for the late post, but here's the status of the two systems I track:

Both the NUGT/DUST system and the URTY/SRTY system technically could be in transition for a switch, but will continue to hold current positions due to momentum.

I also believe that the bounce in the markets was a short term phenomenon, and unlikely to continue for long. Next week will be very telling for the intermediate term direction.

If yields continue to rise, bonds may begin to look more attractive to investors, who may pare their stock holdings to reposition themselves.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Something to consider in the coming months:

[h=1]Be Prepared For Stocks To Crash 40%-55%[/h]

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The NUGT/DUST system continues to hold DUST. PM's got smashed today. Dust up 6.9%.

The URTY/SRTY system continues to hold SRTY, but just barely. The R2K was basically flat today, so not much of a signal to go on.

Continuing to hold my VXX position, but unless we get some increasing volatility soon, I will be forced to sell it to stop the bleeding. The next six trading days are historically weak (see Tom's Seasonality chart), so it may pay off to hold on for another day or two to see if it pans out.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Mr. Market doesn't care if we think he should go down. Incredible turn-around from being way down this morning. This changes the technical picture considerably.

The only question now is, is this a "head fake' rally that only lasts a day or two. The RSI for the S&P is not overbought, so it has room to run for a while.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The NUGT/DUST system will continue to hold DUST, even though we had a slight down day of -1.8%. Not enough negative pressure to cause a switch.

The URTY/SRTY system generated a switch to URTY. I sold my SRTY @ $12.64 for a loss of 2.5%. I'm personally not committing any money to URTY at this time, and will remain in cash.

Also decided to hold my VXX position for another day.

 

[coolhand]

Mr. Market doesn't care if we think he should go down. Incredible turn-around from being way down this morning. This changes the technical picture considerably.

The only question now is, is this a "head fake' rally that only lasts a day or two. The RSI for the S&P is not overbought, so it has room to run for a while.

It may be a head fake, but you're right; this may change the technical picture. OPEX is Friday and that's been up for the Dow 8 of the last 10 years. Seasonality is going to get very positive in the not-too-distant future as well. It's been tough to buy dips all year for those of us inclined to try. But that's partly why I kept 40% exposure. Even if the market doesn't cooperate with my analysis it won't leave me entirely behind.

We'll see how it goes. Sentiment has been on the bullish side and I'd think "they" would want to reload more than they have so far.

One other observation that I've had is that politically, things are falling apart. The market may be compensating for that.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

It may be a head fake, but you're right; this may change the technical picture. OPEX is Friday and that's been up for the Dow 8 of the last 10 years. Seasonality is going to get very positive in the not-too-distant future as well. It's been tough to buy dips all year for those of us inclined to try. But that's partly why I kept 40% exposure. Even if the market doesn't cooperate with my analysis it won't leave me entirely behind.

We'll see how it goes. Sentiment has been on the bullish side and I'd think "they" would want to reload more than they have so far.

One other observation that I've had is that politically, things are falling apart. The market may be compensating for that.

Thanks Jim. I'm inclined to hold off on buying back in at this high point, but it may turn out to be a mistake. That's been the modus operandi all year. Just stay invested. Just ask Chief Heisenberg.

This will not always be the case. Seems that every year brings a different set of rules. What works this year didn't work last year, and probably won't work next year.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sold my VXX this morning @ $48.03 for a -2.8% loss. Cut your losses early, let your winners ride.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

It's still early, but it looks like the NUGT/DUST system has switched.

The system sold DUST this morning @ $32.30 for a gain of 12.5% in 12 trading days. Not too shabby.

Bought NUGT @ $43.86. It appears that gold and silver have hit a double bottom here, and are rebounding, which should be a positive for the miners.