MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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I'll welcome lower prices all next week just because I can - I've enough buffer to absorb the grief. And the golden pricing is worth the pain sacrifice.
 
sniper said:
looks like correction time, now waiting for a good time to get back in.
Click to expand...

Until yesterday, I was actually thinking this sucker could actually go back up another thousand points, and was thinking of jumping back in.

Glad I held off on that impulse, but it was getting close. This looks like this might be the start of something more significant.

We all knew it was not a question of if, only a question of when.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Until yesterday, I was actually thinking this sucker could actually go back up another thousand points, and was thinking of jumping back in.

Glad I held off on that impulse, but it was getting close. This looks like this might be the start of something more significant.

We all knew it was not a question of if, only a question of when.
Click to expand...

no doubt. i was on the same ship as well, but after today's activity, glad i didn't go back on a buy just yet.

i did get out of the market a little too early, but in my experience, getting out early is better than too late more often than not.
 
Birchtree said:
The housing market is going to be fine and even robust - this negative cycle will pass too and the economy will sing. The time is now to stay the course. Even amoeba has finally discovered the point of recognition of our 3 of 3 of 3 mega trend major wave 3. But we need G funders to balance the boat.
Click to expand...

Artificial Abundance, Moral Hazard and the Federal Reserve's Doomsday Machine

"In eras of extended abundance, the populace slowly loses the ability to think critically and develop concepts outside the narrow confines of the Status Quo....

...The Fed has created a Doomsday Machine. The Fed has nurtured moral hazard in every sector of the economy by unleashing an abundance of cheap credit and low interest mortgages; the implicit promise of "you can't lose because we have your back" has been extended from stocks to bonds (i.e. the explicit promise the Fed will keep rates near-zero forever) and real estate.

An abundance based on the central bank spewing trillions of dollars of cheap credit and free money (quantitative easing) is artificial, and it has generated systemic moral hazard. This is a Doomsday Machine because the Fed cannot possibly backstop tens of trillions of dollars of bad bets on stocks, bonds and real estate. Its power is as illusory as the abundance it conjured..."
 
What would happen if...

The bond market tanked.
The stock market tanked.
Commodities tanked.

Maybe we're about to find out?
 
MrJohnRoss said:
What would happen if...

The bond market tanked.
The stock market tanked.
Commodities tanked.

Maybe we're about to find out?
Click to expand...

good time to be in cash if it happens, or shorting the market if you're brave enough haha :)

me personally i don't have a position in anything, just watching and waiting for a buy
 
Anyone else notice that the I Fund just made a round trip? It was up about 12% for the year just a couple of weeks ago. Now it looks like it's back to around 0% for the year.

This chart does not look like there's much strength here. I think we've got some more downside ahead for all the markets, not just the I Fund. It just happens to be the one getting hit the hardest.


efa.png
 
Makes me wonder if our market is going to follow the International market this time. Often, the global market takes its cues from us.
 
coolhand said:
Makes me wonder if our market is going to follow the International market this time. Often, the global market takes its cues from us.
Click to expand...

I'm tending to lean towards the "global deflation" camp. Where's growth going to come from? That's like asking when Superman is going to come save the day.

All those trillions of dollars created out of thin air, and about all we got was a little pop in the stock market for a couple of years. Whoopie. IMHO, THERE IS NO REAL RECOVERY.

I think the Fed is now trying to back away... very... slowly... so as to not cause a panic.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
I'm tending to lean towards the "global deflation" camp. Where's growth going to come from? That's like asking when Superman is going to come save the day.

All those trillions of dollars created out of thin air, and about all we got was a little pop in the stock market for a couple of years. Whoopie. IMHO, THERE IS NO REAL RECOVERY.

I think the Fed is now trying to back away... very... slowly... so as to not cause a panic.
Click to expand...

I've been convinced for some time that growth is not an objective for some of our pols. But this could take me down a road I don't particularly want to travel. :suspicious:
 
There will be growth - there has always been growth. It may just take longer to get to a 5% GDP but the bull will last a lot longer too. Growth is on the way - just be patient. Once Obama leaves office the economy will bloom.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
I'm tending to lean towards the "global deflation" camp. Where's growth going to come from? That's like asking when Superman is going to come save the day.

All those trillions of dollars created out of thin air, and about all we got was a little pop in the stock market for a couple of years. Whoopie. IMHO, THERE IS NO REAL RECOVERY.

I think the Fed is now trying to back away... very... slowly... so as to not cause a panic.
Click to expand...

Yes... And imagine what would have happened if they had announced a very small decrease in QE... They are trying to get used to the idea so we don' t freak out!

Maybe they will firm up a continuation next month but not likely.

I was about to move into I and F because indicators were looking positive... Setting up for increases. That Fed induced sell off really messed up the market.....

Glad I waited for Bernanke to speak.... Scary that what comes out of his mouth has the ability to affect the market so much! :suspicious:
 
It looks to me that the S&P touched that 38% Fib line around 1555 and decided that was enough... for now. The market got a bit oversold, and the three day rally looks like it will move us back above the 50 DMA. What's impressive is that it sliced right through it, no hesitation. What I'm looking for next is the convergence of the uptrend and downtrend lines near 1630-1635. Wouldn't be surprised to see some struggling between bulls and bears in this area. Decided not to chase this rally, as the upside appears limited in the short term, although this market has been able to frustrate many of us short term traders. I would have been more willing to put my money back into equities if the MACD and RSI had gotten deeper into the oversold area.


$spx.png
 
Panic is not a strategy. Getting paid cash while holding stocks is important, and grows more important as the portfolio becomes part of the cash flow source to support life style. I suspect that QE infinity will run on awhile longer and push prices higher.
 
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