MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's an interesting chart looking at the four year presidential cycle vs the Dow. This being the "post election year" shows a barnburner month of July (check), and a flat month of Aug, followed by a negative bias through Oct.

Will be interesting to see how it stacks up to reality...

 

[NiteFlyer]

Delete this (my reply) it didn't tie in to the picture of Slim Pickens riding the bomb in Dr. Strangelove.

Ride it, Slim! Yahoo!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I continue to hold the S Fund for the TSP, and hope to hang in there at least until Aug. 1. Hoping the market doesn't do anything crazy over the next few days.

Slowly backing out of my long positions. Most of my IRA holdings are now either metals, gold miners, or short positions. This is my downside hedge.

SRTY is still looking like she wants to go higher. Higher highs, higher lows, and curving up. Indicators still looking positive.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

SRTY (and TZA) both had daily positive Stoch crossovers from the 20 level. MACD (PPO) also had a positive crossover. RSI was extremely oversold, and is now turning higher.

I know it's hard to bet against the Fed, but I'm letting the indicators speak for themselves. Bought SRTY today at $16.23.

Still holding my S Fund for now...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's an update on the $SPX/$VIX ratio.

After reaching a triple top high of ~138, the $SPX has fallen, and $VIX has gone up. Would expect the ratio to search for the lower BB, which is currently at 99.9. That's a 27% drop.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

FWIW, one of my timing systems fired a "sell" signal after the market close today.

C'mon market! Keep it up for two more days! Just two more days! Then I can move to G, and you can go down all you want!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

FWIW, one of my timing systems fired a "sell" signal after the market close today.

C'mon market! Keep it up for two more days! Just two more days! Then I can move to G, and you can go down all you want!

Um, why do you want to waste an IFT on Thursday to go to G, why not just do it tomorrow?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Um, why do you want to waste an IFT on Thursday to go to G, why not just do it tomorrow?

Um, see post #1958 below.

It's all a game of strategy.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Um, see post #1958 below.

It's all a game of strategy.

FWM quoted it...


While I understand your IFT logic, what I don't understand is that if you KNOW you are going to G on 8/1, you will lose one of your precious IFTs for August. If you just go into G tomorrow, you will be in G on the 2nd (like you planned) AND you will have BOTH your IFTs...

In THIS case I believe it to be a waste of an IFT for one day of gains, and unless you KNOW that there will be good gains on 8/1, it just isn't worth it... IMO

THAT is why I don't understand why you are moving to G on Thursday.

Sorry, I am dense, just ask FWM.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

FWM quoted it...


While I understand your IFT logic, what I don't understand is that if you KNOW you are going to G on 8/1, you will lose one of your precious IFTs for August. If you just go into G tomorrow, you will be in G on the 2nd (like you planned) AND you will have BOTH your IFTs...

In THIS case I believe it to be a waste of an IFT for one day of gains, and unless you KNOW that there will be good gains on 8/1, it just isn't worth it... IMO

THAT is why I don't understand why you are moving to G on Thursday.

Sorry, I am dense, just ask FWM.

No, no, no! You're not dense! I see what you're getting at. Let's look at the options:

1.) If I get out tomorrow, I'll be able to go back in and back out in Aug. That will use up my two IFT's for the month.
2.) If I stay in until 8/1, I'll be able to go to G (whenever), back to S, then back to G if necessary.

Seems like option 2 gives me more flexibility. Not sure what tomorrow brings (although futures are down tonight, and the market seems to be rolling over), but I'm not 100% guaranteed to move to G on 8/1. If the markets scream higher tomorrow, I'll hang on for the ride. If the markets keep trending toward the downside like they have for the past few days, I will probably move to G early next month.

Of course, please don't take my advice on any of my moves. Obviously buy & hold is the winning hand this year, and most of my moves have been whipsawed failures. I'm either a glutton for punishment, or a stubborn technician, not sure which.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Oh, RMI, one other thing...

If the markets go down tomorrow, I'm well hedged with my SRTY holdings in my IRA/401k accounts.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Oh, RMI, one other thing...

If the markets go down tomorrow, I'm well hedged with my SRTY holdings in my IRA/401k accounts.

Mr Ross... Think you will be making money tomorrow! I think economic news will be below mark and no QE change.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Mr Ross... Think you will be making money tomorrow! I think economic news will be below mark and no QE change.

Yup, bad economic news is good for the markets. I guess a full blown economic depression would cause the Dow to go to infinity! (I think we'll find out soon enough).

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Is this market schizo today?? First it screams higher. Then it falls like a rock. Then it screams higher again. Now it's falling like a rock.

10 minute chart of the Dow...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Is this market schizo today?? First it screams higher. Then it falls like a rock. Then it screams higher again. Now it's falling like a rock.

10 minute chart of the Dow...


View attachment 24717

Could it be institutions selling into the Mom & Pop investors?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Could it be institutions selling into the Mom & Pop investors?

Naw, they'd never do the ol' "pump 'n dump", would they?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Naw, they'd never do the ol' "pump 'n dump", would they?

Sarcasm, right?

 

[Birchtree]

The bull doesn't really want mom and pop in for the ride and will continue to discourage them with volatility and fear - the bus travels faster with fewer on board.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

The bull doesn't really want mom and pop in for the ride and will continue to discourage them with volatility and fear - the bus travels faster with fewer on board.

Wow, aren't you contradictory today.

 

[Birchtree]

Mom and pop will get their feet wet - it will just take time. Days like today will discourage them and that's what contrarians like me like. I'd be plum happy if I were the only one buying equities. As a matter of fact, I have 7 dividends to be reinvested tomorrow and if the market slides a little that's fine with me - any time I can get wall flowers on the cheap I'm happy. And that means I'm happy more often than not.