MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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jkenjohnson said:
Will you let us know when it flips to NUGT?
Click to expand...

Sure. At some point, the world will beat down the price of gold and silver so much that gold and silver miners will have to close their doors, because it costs more to mine the stuff than it does to sell it to market. That's already happening for many miners, but eventually the supply of precious metals will fall so much that the world won't be able to find any. Then the people will begin screaming for more. That's when the tide will swing the other way.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Expecting a sell-off this afternoon...

Looks like it's not going to hold above the 50 MA.
Click to expand...

Well, we held above the 50 MA, but just barely. Dow futures are down -88, so we may get another down day tomorrow. Maybe those poor souls who've been following J-Trader will finally start recouping their losses?

Good luck!
 
Excellent essay on the "behind the scenes" reason for the Fed tapering next month.

"... The political class plans to be on the sidelines during the next financial crisis, innocently tsk-tsking while the Fed absorbs the blame for the fiasco. The Fed is desperate to pass the ticking time-bomb back to the elected leadership before it blows, and there is only one way to do this: taper off the money-printing and bond buying, and accept a mini-meltdown in stocks as the cost of forcing responsibility back on on the elected leadership. ..."

The Case for Fed Tapering Sooner, Rather Than Later ~ Of Two Minds ~ Charles Hugh Smith
 
jkenjohnson said:
Will you let us know when it flips to NUGT?
Click to expand...

Been extremely busy at work. Just got a chance to look at the charts. For what it's worth, my simple NUGT / DUST timing system flipped to NUGT today. Probably no surprise, as NUGT was up 25% today.

I would paper trade this for a while and see how it goes. Like I've said, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Sure. At some point, the world will beat down the price of gold and silver so much that gold and silver miners will have to close their doors, because it costs more to mine the stuff than it does to sell it to market. That's already happening for many miners, but eventually the supply of precious metals will fall so much that the world won't be able to find any. Then the people will begin screaming for more. That's when the tide will swing the other way.
Click to expand...

SIL has been rallying hard the last 2 days, any news behind that one? Bought some in early July for my roth ira just based off technicals, it's not a world beater, but it's in the green right now thanks to the last 2 days. Figured I'd ask you since you seem to be the guy who trades PM's on this board :)
 
sniper said:
SIL has been rallying hard the last 2 days, any news behind that one? Bought some in early July for my roth ira just based off technicals, it's not a world beater, but it's in the green right now thanks to the last 2 days. Figured I'd ask you since you seem to be the guy who trades PM's on this board :)
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Don't know specifically about SIL. Looking at the charts, it looks very much like NUGT, or GDX or GDXJ, or any of the other miners. IMO, the sector was oversold, and trying to form a double bottom. The last two days showed an extremely hard bounce off the second bottom, which was a higher low than the previous bottom.


NUGT.png
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Funny you should ask. I was just testing out a simple timing system with PM's, specifically NUGT vs DUST.

My tests went back only three months, so take it for what it's worth. There's a lot more back testing to do, but it looks pretty good so far:

Had 7 trades, 5 winners, 2 losers.

Average trade = +19%
Largest winner = +59.2%
Largest loser = -16.8%
Total gain = +191.7%
$100 invested = $291.66

BTW, the system is currently holding DUST, so I would probably not want to be holding any gold miners at this time.
Click to expand...

Modified the NUGT/DUST trading system, and back tested it for all of 2013 YTD. Results are below, but take it with a heavy dose of skepticism:

Total trades = 31
Positive trades = 23
Negative trades = 8
Average trade = +12.4%
Largest winner = +78.1%
Largest loser = -6.5%

I'm not going to post the total gain or what $100 invested turned into, because it's unrealistic.
Most likely, this looks good on paper during back testing, but will most likely be difficult, if not impossible, to duplicate in real time.

I'll try trading this in real time on paper and see if it pans out. I'll post the signals here on my thread whenever possible.

Thanks!
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Been extremely busy at work. Just got a chance to look at the charts. For what it's worth, my simple NUGT / DUST timing system flipped to NUGT today. Probably no surprise, as NUGT was up 25% today.

I would paper trade this for a while and see how it goes. Like I've said, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Click to expand...
I waited too late to buy in. Don't want to after such a huge run up.
 
For those of you who don't want to worry about the day to day market fluctuations, this timing model will work very well.

Just keep track of the weekly S&P 500 as follows:

When the 10 week EMA crosses over the 50 week EMA, you want to be long stocks.

When it crosses under, you want to be in the G Fund (or short the market in your IRA's).

Only four trades since 1997.

You can avoid whipsaws by making sure the Stochastics RSI reaches 0.10 or below before selling.

Good luck!


$SPX weekly timing.png
 
I guess that's about the same thing as the 50 day ema and the 250 day ema. It really can be that simple. Do you know the % gain on that method? I know one thing...its better than mine.
 
four trades since 1997...the overlords couldn't even get their grubby paws on this system to ruin it for us...I'm waiting for the crossover so I can begin to get back in the market...never used the moving averages before but I will now...you can't argue with the results...awesome info Mr.JohnRoss
 
Just to be clear, the weekly S&P timing system has been long stocks since 2009, with no sign of a sell signal anywhere in sight.

The NUGT/DUST timing system is holding NUGT. Up another +14% today.

I'm thinking of building and back testing a URTY/SRTY (TNA/TZA) timing system based on the same principles as NUGT/DUST. It would be good to have two unrelated securities to trade in case one misfires.

With the S&P showing a current negative bias, it's interesting to see that SRTY is simultaneously showing a negative bias at the same time. You would think just the opposite to be true.

All the funds seem to be treading water here, waiting for a catalyst to make them move either positive or negative.

All in due time. The markets will tell you when they're ready.
 
buffalobull said:
Thanks for your post, so does the risk/reward situation look attractive for acquiring some DUST today?
thanks!
Click to expand...

Possibly. There is a gap that may get filled, but that's not how my system works. I'm holding NUGT until the signal flips. DUST may continue lower for several days, we just don't know.

You might get lucky and catch the dead cat bounce. However, it's nearly impossible to hit the exact tops and bottoms of trend changes.

Good luck!
 
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