MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[jpcavin]

Besides NUGT and DUST, which other leveraged ETF's move as quickly as these two? I looked up several others and neither bear nor bulls made much of anything. Is it because we've been going sideways? Was today just a boring day? I don't like the added risk unless there's a high reward.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Besides NUGT and DUST, which other leveraged ETF's move as quickly as these two? I looked up several others and neither bear nor bulls made much of anything. Is it because we've been going sideways? Was today just a boring day? I don't like the added risk unless there's a high reward.

Risk and reward go hand in hand. I haven't found any other ETF's with these kind of possible returns.

I'd like to run a back test of this sytem using URTY/SRTY. These are the triple leveraged R2K funds similar to TNA/TZA.

Hope to do that analysis in the coming weeks. I think the rewards could be very worthwhile, even tho the markets are pretty calm right now. This will change soon, and these funds will scream in opposing directions, with the potential to make (or lose) a lot of money!

If anyone else knows of any other leveraged ETF's with extremely high beta's, please share!

 

[sniper]

The NUGT/DUST timing system remains holding DUST. Let's see if the gap can get filled in the next few days.

Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings! :nuts:

looks almost like a head and shoulders, those give me the heeby jeebies haha

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Soooo... yesterday, I put in an order to buy some shares of AAPL. Right before hitting the "execute" button, I backed off, because I thought I could get a better return with NUGT/DUST.

Here's what AAPL looks like today: Doh!

:blink:

Well, I may not have gotten my buy on AAPL, but my MU did even better today, +8.24%. I'll take it, thank you very much.

The blue arrow indicates my buy point on 7/11 at 12.69.

Every once in a while I get lucky.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

looks almost like a head and shoulders, those give me the heeby jeebies haha

Quit trying to scare me! hahaha!

During the back test, there were 31 trades this year (ok, 32 as of today), which averages to about once a week. However, several of the trades (I think 3) were trades the very next day, so there are times when the 'ol head fake comes into play. We'll just have to wait and see what the market serves up tomorrow.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The I Fund is the only fund that's looking strong these days. Outperforming both the S and especially the C Fund.

Can you say "Dome Top"?

 

[GUCHI]

Mr JR question does the dome top mean anythin? i know it does i guess im asking what? it looks like it is dropping but i read somewhere here on this forum that the I looked to be moving up in the next 12-24 months. i would just be in heaven to see the I start catching up since i have been buying I shares for awhile hoping for the move up eventually.

The I Fund is the only fund that's looking strong these days. Outperforming both the S and especially the C Fund.

Can you say "Dome Top"?


View attachment 24882

 

[MrJohnRoss]

For those of you watching the NUGT/DUST trading system, keep your eyes peeled. Early trading suggests we may have a reversal day today.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The NUGT/DUST trading system has generated a flip to NUGT.

Sold DUST @ $63.44.

Bought NUGT @ $7.59.

Good luck!

 

[jpcavin]

So are you taking a loss on DUST?

My ultra conservative style says NUGT is overbought and DUST is not oversold enough. :notrust:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

So are you taking a loss on DUST?

My ultra conservative style says NUGT is overbought and DUST is not oversold enough. :notrust:

Absolutely. -3.4% loss.

If you are "ultra conservative", this trading system may not be a good match. This is about as aggressive as you can get.

NUGT is currently at $8.20. That's a gain of 8% so far this morning. I'd gladly trade a -3.4% loss for a +8% gain.

Let's see how the rest of the day shapes up!

Good luck jp!

 

[jpcavin]

LOL. Wrong word. I meant cautious...not conservative. The trade setup has to be ideal..for me, that would be very low RSI.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

LOL. Wrong word. I meant cautious...not conservative. The trade setup has to be ideal..for me, that would be very low RSI.

I understand. Everyone has their own ideas and systems for buying and selling. Don't want to persuade you to do something you don't want to do, or doesn't fit your trading style.

Please feel free to paper trade this system, and see how it turns out. It will either work, or it won't. There are no guarantees. As I've said before, I'm skeptical myself that this system is actually going to work based on back-testing using only 7 1/2 months of data.

Good luck!

 

[Dutchy]

Mr. JR, Missed the entry point on NUGT this morning. Wary about getting in now @ 8.25 area level, where might next good entry point be ?? Thanks.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Mr. JR, Missed the entry point on NUGT this morning. Wary about getting in now @ 8.25 area level, where might next good entry point be ?? Thanks.

Hey Dutchy! That's a tough question, because no one knows how far this rally could go. If you don't get in, and NUGT goes up for the next few days, you could miss out on some excellent gains. However, if you get in now, this could be the peak for this current rally.

There really is no good answer. The safe bet is to wait for the next signal to buy DUST, but even that trade could be a whipsaw like the last one.

Each one of us must weigh the possibilities and know the risks before making trades using this system.

Wish I had a crystal ball, but that's the best I can do.

Good luck!

 

[jb0441]

Hey Dutchy! That's a tough question, because no one knows how far this rally could go. If you don't get in, and NUGT goes up for the next few days, you could miss out on some excellent gains. However, if you get in now, this could be the peak for this current rally.

There really is no good answer. The safe bet is to wait for the next signal to buy DUST, but even that trade could be a whipsaw like the last one.

Each one of us must weigh the possibilities and know the risks before making trades using this system.

Wish I had a crystal ball, but that's the best I can do.

Good luck!

Yep, that was my plan. Sold DUST for a 9% loss or so, but that's the nature of these ETF's as I learned earlier this year haha. As you said earlier, these are about as aggressive as you can get! Didnt want to buy in NUGT since it was already up that much, and yes, it could go up massively in a few days, but I'll just wait.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Yep, that was my plan. Sold DUST for a 9% loss or so, but that's the nature of these ETF's as I learned earlier this year haha. As you said earlier, these are about as aggressive as you can get! Didnt want to buy in NUGT since it was already up that much, and yes, it could go up massively in a few days, but I'll just wait.

Thanks for your comments on my thread, jb. Don't feel bad about your 9% loss. We've all been there. This spring, I stubbornly held on to my AGQ as it went down. Then it went down further. Then it went down massively! Before I knew it, I was down 40 or 50%. What a dumb a$$. Why I didn't pay attention to basic technical analysis, I just don't know. Actually, it was because I believed that gold and silver SHOULD be going higher, and it defied logic. Well, I can throw my beliefs out the window! I should have paid attention to what the charts were telling me, and I would have had a much better chance of making 50% instead of losing 50%!

It was an expensive lesson, but like I've said before, I consider it the tuition cost of (hopefully) learning how to trade properly.

Good luck!

 

[jb0441]

Thanks for your comments on my thread, jb. Don't feel bad about your 9% loss. We've all been there. This spring, I stubbornly held on to my AGQ as it went down. Then it went down further. Then it went down massively! Before I knew it, I was down 40 or 50%. What a dumb a$$. Why I didn't pay attention to basic technical analysis, I just don't know. Actually, it was because I believed that gold and silver SHOULD be going higher, and it defied logic. Well, I can throw my beliefs out the window! I should have paid attention to what the charts were telling me, and I would have had a much better chance of making 50% instead of losing 50%!

It was an expensive lesson, but like I've said before, I consider it the tuition cost of (hopefully) learning how to trade properly.

Good luck!

I was with you in that sense... holding NUGT almost all spring and saying gold should be going up too. But yes, losses are going to happen, and these miners ETF's are crazy. Get on the right side of them here and there though, and your losses will be erased quickly!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

With about 10 minutes to go until the closing bell, it looks like we'll most likely be holding NUGT into the close.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Looks like NUGT closed at $8.40 today. With a buy point of $7.59, that's a +10.6% gain for the day. Congratulations to NUGT holders!

There are a couple of interesting points of notice looking at the daily chart:

1) This is the first time in a long time (Nov 2012) that NUGT has closed above the 50 day EMA. That's a good sign for NUGT.
2) This is also the first time in a long time (also Nov 2012) that the PPO (or MACD) has closed above the zero line. Also a good sign for NUGT.

We may see some slowing in the move up for NUGT, just because we are approaching the upper BB.

However, the RSI is only 59, so we're not overbought in that regard. Both the Stoch and PPO are trending higher, so there is good strength there.




My personal opinion, FWIW, is that we've seen the bottom in gold, silver, and the miners for this cycle. Long term holders should do well holding PM's or the miners.

Good luck!