MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Nice call on nugt today. I almost jumped in at $5 but didn't have the courage...what a quick ride it has been!

Thanks Mapper. I can't think of anywhere else where we can make 5-10 or even 15% in a day. The trick is to be on the right side of the trade.

That's why I didn't post the results of my back tests. The total percent gain, and the amount of money your account would have grown to was unimaginable.

So far, during this live test, if you're paper trading it, it's worked out pretty well.

Like I said, I'm skeptical, and only time will tell for sure whether this is a good system or not. Hopefully our luck will continue...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Looks like there's some end of day profit taking on NUGT. Can't blame you if you wanna sell. A +14% day is nothing to sneeze at.

I'll continue to hold and only trade my signals.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Dammmm.

NUGT closed up +18.08% today.

:blink:

 

[Mapper]

From down over 5% pre-market to closing plus 18% :blink: is right. I'd seriously consider taking some profit. Leave a little house money on the table but at least book some of that!

 

[Dutchy]

MrJohnRoss...Dammmm.

NUGT closed up +18.08% today.

:blink:

Mr. JR, Thank you for your earlier guidance on NUGT. I jumped in today at Market open @7.89, closed today up today almost 25% !! (I think my math is correct). I have to hold for 3 days for settlement period and hope it still has a little room to run..

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Mr. JR, Thank you for your earlier guidance on NUGT. I jumped in today at Market open @7.89, closed today up today almost 25% !! (I think my math is correct). I have to hold for 3 days for settlement period and hope it still has a little room to run..

Wow! Way to go Dutchy!

Your math is correct. +25% in one day!

Glad I could be of service.

:laugh:

 

[rcknfrewld]

AGG Technical Analysis | iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Ma Stock - Yahoo! Finance

your post about the 10 and 50 EMA really intrigued me...could you give an analysis of our F fund chart whenever you have time...unsure about "exact" buy/sell signals

 

[MrJohnRoss]

AGG Technical Analysis | iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Ma Stock - Yahoo! Finance

your post about the 10 and 50 EMA really intrigued me...could you give an analysis of our F fund chart whenever you have time...unsure about "exact" buy/sell signals

Hi rcknfrewld,

I wish all market indices were as simple to time as just using the 10 and 50 ema crossover, but that's not the case. With the S&P500, it works really well, as you saw from my previous post. However, to compare apples to apples, we need to look at the weekly chart of AGG, not the daily. There's just no clear evidence that 10/50 crossover works with the daily chart.

As you can see from the 10 year weekly AGG chart below, there have only been two previous "sell" signals when the 10 crossed the 50. The crossover in 2008 really didn't provide a good sell signal, because it was basically a short term whipsaw during the financial panic. The latest crossover occurred during the week of June 17th of this year. Perhaps it was a good signal, but it's too early to tell. AGG closed at 106.21 that week, and it's currently at 106.13, so it hasn't sidestepped a lot of damage (yet).

The bottom line is that each index seems to have it's own characteristics regarding which technical analysis tool works best for trading purposes.

I rarely use the F Fund with my TSP trades, so I haven't investigated what might work best for AGG. If any of our readers have any backtest data that seems to work, I'd love to see the results!

Hope that helps,
JR

 

[JTH]

If any of our readers have any backtest data that seems to work, I'd love to see the results!

I too have found that back-tested indicators that work on the major indexes do not work on AGG, it is its own beast...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

10 minutes before the opening bell, and stock futures are mildly higher. NUGT up slightly as well.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT up nicely this morning. However, looking at the hourly chart, RSI is over 83. Would not be surprised to see a pullback.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I'm loving the action in JNJ. Come to Papa! This will make a good holding in my Roth. *salivating*

 

[MrJohnRoss]

S&P500 trying to hold on to the 50 day EMA, but I think there's just too much downside momentum. I expect a break below.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Dark cloud is forming on NUGT. As expected.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The Utilities are looking ugly! Wow, going right over the waterfall.

AGG is looking very weak.

The Transports are trying to make a stand, though.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I Fund (EFA) is looking strong today, which is surprising. I still would not want to jump in. I believe there is just too much downside pressure on the U.S. markets right now to be long equities in the TSP.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT up nicely this morning. However, looking at the hourly chart, RSI is over 83. Would not be surprised to see a pullback.

NUGT/DUST system switch. Sold NUGT @ $9.31. Bought DUST @ $48.30.

Wish us luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT/DUST system switch. Sold NUGT @ $9.31. Bought DUST @ $48.30.

Wish us luck!

... and now NUGT is trying to rally.

The good part about this system is that it catches most of the directional changes in NUGT/DUST. But there is always that fine line of making the switch too soon and seeing your trade go wrong, or waiting and watching your holding keep going down.

I also realize that I will not be able to monitor NUGT and DUST continuously, as I work full time, and can't always be near my computer (I have today off).

I may have to sacrifice this system to some degree, which would mean not being able to trade nearly as often. That might be a good thing, as I'm sure many of you who are following along may not be able to get these signals in a timely manner.

That would mean that the system performance would be watered down, but I still believe that we can get very good results.

I will have to contemplate this conundrum, and see how it plays out.

I also will be going on a vacation near the end of the month, so I will not have access to a computer during long stretches of time. I may just go to cash at that point, and put the system on hold.

I knew this day would come, and I'm trying to think ahead, so bear with me while I try to figure this out. Somehow, it will all work out.

If you have any input on whether you find this system is too sensitive, and makes too many trades, let me know.

Or perhaps you'd rather keep it as is, and try to make money on some of these daily moves that are incredible in size?

I would be interested in your opinion.

Thanks,
JR

 

[Dutchy]

I, for one, cannot do daily trades as I trade ETF's in my IRA and have 3 day settlement periods. With stocks and bonds appearing to have downward pressure, I'm hoping traders continue to go to the mining stocks/ETFS.. I have to hold NUGT until Tuesday, but with all this Market uncertainty, I think NUGT will hold up just fine...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I, for one, cannot do daily trades as I trade ETF's in my IRA and have 3 day settlement periods. With stocks and bonds appearing to have downward pressure, I'm hoping traders continue to go to the mining stocks/ETFS.. I have to hold NUGT until Tuesday, but with all this Market uncertainty, I think NUGT will hold up just fine...

Thanks for your input Dutchy.