MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[Mapper]

I'm loving the action in JNJ. Come to Papa! This will make a good holding in my Roth. *salivating*

Thanks for the head's up on this. I made the mistake of selling jnj in june 2011 in the mid $60s. Some things you can't help but regret...though I think I used proceeds to buy F which has been keeping me happy of late.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

HUGE swings in NUGT/DUST. We may be caught in a whipsaw!

Hang on tight!

 

[rcknfrewld]

hey John how do I view the weekly instead of the daily on the yahoo charts we have at the bottom of the page...which stoch should I use

 

[MrJohnRoss]

hey John how do I view the weekly instead of the daily on the yahoo charts we have at the bottom of the page...which stoch should I use

Sorry rcknfrewld, not sure how to see the weekly on yahoo. Anyone else here use yahoo charts??

 

[MrJohnRoss]

As interest rates rise, F Fund (AGG) is getting creamed.

I know I've mentioned this before, but the best way I know how to take advantage of rising interest rates is using TMV. It's a triple leveraged 20 year treasury bear ETF.

Check out the chart below. Up 3% so far today, and quite a ride since May 1.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

As we head into the final half hour, it looks like DUST is not going to move out of it's oversold condition, so this may be a whipsaw trade. Huge 15% swings in price today. Jeez, I about had a heart attack here.

I'll really need to evaluate this system over the weekend, and decide if I can devote the time to watching the price action this closely. I may just try to post updates at the end of each trading day. Thoughts?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks for the head's up on this. I made the mistake of selling jnj in june 2011 in the mid $60s. Some things you can't help but regret...though I think I used proceeds to buy F which has been keeping me happy of late.

JNJ is one of the stocks I consider a world dominating dividend payer. It's one of those stocks you'd be comfortable just holding forever in your portfolio and allowing the dividends to compound. JNJ is paying a dividend of 2.9%. No matter what happens with the economy, I believe the company will do just fine.

F has had a great run this past year. It's basically doubled. It's currently sloping down like most other stocks during this market correction. I think the stock might be more economically sensitive to a troubled economy if consumers tighten their belts. F currently pays a dividend of 2.4%.

I'll be waiting for the markets (and JNJ) to reverse their downward trend and begin showing improving technical action before pulling the trigger. Good luck Mapper!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's a look at Silver (see chart below). SLV made what I believe will be it's final low for the year on 8/7 at $18.83. It closed yesterday at $22.34. That's a gain of +18.6% in a little over a week! AGQ (2X silver) has gone up +40.2%! The chart of SLV has gone parabolic, so I'm not expecting a run up of this magnitude to go on forever. It's unsustainable. Would not be surprised to see a pullback in the near future, probably next week.




Gold has also had a good run since 8/7. GLD is up +6.8% since then.

If the metals market takes a breather, expect the miners to do the same. That would mean NUGT would fall and DUST would climb. NUGT has gained +82.5% since the 8/7 low. Obviously, that pace can't go on forever.

Don't forget, next week (Tue 8/20) there is a 1 for 10 reverse split on NUGT. "In a 1 for 10 reverse split, every ten pre-split shares held by a shareholder will result in the receipt of one post-split share, which will be priced ten times higher than the value of the pre-split share."

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Signs are Building Up That This Is the Market Peak ~ Business Insider

"...The rise in the stock market this past year has not been because of fundamentals. Earnings in the nonfinancial sector have been flat. Bloomberg figures that bank earnings rose 27% in the second quarter, which was the only thing keeping the S&P 500 from reporting a net drop in profits for the quarter. With the banks, S&P 500 profits were up 3.3% in the quarter. Without them, S&P 500 profits would have been down 1.2%...

And because the rise in the stock market has not been accompanied by an increase in earnings, price-to-earnings ratios have risen back to levels that suggest the market is getting closer to stalling out. While the Dow and the S&P 500 are not at nosebleed levels, they are certainly pricey. The Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ, on the other hand, are seriously overpriced in terms of earnings...

How will it all end? (Here's a clue): Faith in central banks today is equivalent to faith in the word dot-com in 1999 or faith in the eternal rise of housing prices in 2006...."

​

 

[Dutchy]

Mr. J.R.,, As to the 10 to 1 reverse split for NUGT on Tues., How will this affect future stock price for NUGT, if at all ?? Will stock price still be determined by Market forces? OR, will the stock being priced 10 times higher have an adverse impact in any future rise ?? I will be able to sell my NUGT holding at Market open on Tues., Thanks.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Mr. J.R.,, As to the 10 to 1 reverse split for NUGT on Tues., How will this affect future stock price for NUGT, if at all ?? Will stock price still be determined by Market forces? OR, will the stock being priced 10 times higher have an adverse impact in any future rise ?? I will be able to sell my NUGT holding at Market open on Tues., Thanks.

Hey Dutchy,

There should not be any change to how the miners perform, or how NUGT or DUST perform. It's simply an administrative exercise to make the security appear more attractive to "investors". As an example, instead of owning 100 shares of NUGT at $9.27, you'll own 10 shares at $92.70. Silly, I know, but it is what it is.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The chart below is a possible scenario that is playing out in the markets right now. We may be forming the "head" of a "head & shoulders" pattern that leads to a larger market sell-off later this fall. Definitely keep your eye on this. With poor retail sales, and the Fed getting ready to scale back QE Infinity, it might be wise to be a bit more cautious. Just because the market has gone bananas so far this year does not mean it will go on forever.

 

[jb0441]

The chart below is a possible scenario that is playing out in the markets right now. We may be forming the "head" of a "head & shoulders" pattern that leads to a larger market sell-off later this fall. Definitely keep your eye on this. With poor retail sales, and the Fed getting ready to scale back QE Infinity, it might be wise to be a bit more cautious. Just because the market has gone bananas so far this year does not mean it will go on forever.


View attachment 24948

I'm hoping for a bounce up here off the 50 day ema, fail to pass up 1700, then take a huge leg down based on some fed news of ending QE, earnings, all of the above, whatever it may be. The real question is, what will happen to gold if a 2008 style tank (or less) happens in September? Will gold follow the markets downward for a bit as the dollar starts to rise, or will gold battle the dollar and the market pressure as the only safe haven... and rise? And yet another question.. how will miners react? All I know is, if you're on the right side of NUGT/DUST, you could possibly clean up with massive swings over a very very short period of time!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I'm hoping for a bounce up here off the 50 day ema, fail to pass up 1700, then take a huge leg down based on some fed news of ending QE, earnings, all of the above, whatever it may be. The real question is, what will happen to gold if a 2008 style tank (or less) happens in September? Will gold follow the markets downward for a bit as the dollar starts to rise, or will gold battle the dollar and the market pressure as the only safe haven... and rise? And yet another question.. how will miners react? All I know is, if you're on the right side of NUGT/DUST, you could possibly clean up with massive swings over a very very short period of time!

Yeah, that 50 DMA will be real critical right out of the gate Monday morning.

Hard to speculate on a 2008 style drop, but it would certainly present some opportunities if it came to pass. IMHO, I think another big market drop is in the cards, just don't know the exact timing yet, but certainly in the next few years.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Want to make more money? A study has found that people who have sex more than four times a week earn 5% higher wages.

Have More Sex, Make More Money ~ Marketwatch

 

[burrocrat]

Want to make more money? A study has found that people who have sex more than four times a week earn 5% higher wages.

Have More Sex, Make More Money ~ Marketwatch

yes, i would like to make more money. are you taking appointments?

 

[burrocrat]

wait, i did the math and i want to take that 4 times per week thing back. that's at least four hours. if i just pay for it twice a week i'd still be happy and could pocket half the change. not to mention what i could do with an extra 2 hours to myself and all the spending money.

 

[nnuut]

You're a trip.

 

[sniper]

Want to make more money? A study has found that people who have sex more than four times a week earn 5% higher wages.

Have More Sex, Make More Money ~ Marketwatch

nice, i need to get on the blue pill then :nuts:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

It's a fairly quiet day (so far) in the metals market. GLD and SLV both down a bit. DUST is up slightly.

Decided I will go to end of day signals for the NUGT/DUST timing system. My work load is going to go through the roof for the next week, and I'm going on vacation the middle of next week. If I can't post my signals before the end of the trading day, I will do my best to post them that evening.

That being said, the slower NUGT/DUST system is actually holding NUGT right now. However, I will wait until the next fast signal from my current timing system before actually selling my DUST and moving to NUGT.

Hope that's not too confusing?

Good luck!