MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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MrJohnRoss said:
It's a fairly quiet day (so far) in the metals market. GLD and SLV both down a bit. DUST is up slightly.

Decided I will go to end of day signals for the NUGT/DUST timing system. My work load is going to go through the roof for the next week, and I'm going on vacation the middle of next week. If I can't post my signals before the end of the trading day, I will do my best to post them that evening.

That being said, the slower NUGT/DUST system is actually holding NUGT right now. However, I will wait until the next fast signal from my current timing system before actually selling my DUST and moving to NUGT.

Hope that's not too confusing?

Good luck!
Click to expand...

I wonder if Wednesday's FMOC meetings are already priced into the market. If not, it could be a big loser, depending on what is said. I'm in right now, but which I wasn't.
 
As the market continues to drift lower, I'm scaling in a little deeper with more inverse funds. Already holding SRTY at $16.58.

This morning I bought some FAZ (Financial Bear 3X) at $31.30. As the market continues to have a negative bias, these should do quite well.

If you're in the F Fund, you may want to throw in the towel. AGG is getting creamed. If you have any utility stocks, it's looking like a blood bath.

Could this be the beginning of the bond bubble being popped?

TMV is looking very strong, if you want to bet on rising interest rates.
 
jkenjohnson said:
I wonder if Wednesday's FMOC meetings are already priced into the market. If not, it could be a big loser, depending on what is said. I'm in right now, but which I wasn't.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think the easy money's already been made. This market just does not look right.

I'm slowly scaling out of my long positions.
 
Just wanted to say thanks for the updates on your system, charts and commentary. I find the information that you share to be insightful and very useful. I'm following your NUGT/DUST system as well and greatly appreciate your work and thoughts.
 
For your NUGT/DUST timing system, have you also incorporated a hold in cash signal? For example, say NUGT made a run with a 40% return over a few days/weeks and further positive returns would appear to be at risk. In this example, is there consideration for a hold signal (i.e., moving to a cash position) to be generated until more data points are collected to then deterimine if NUGT should be repurchased or if a switch to going long in DUST is warranted instead. Are/did you develop the system with this type of strategy in mind or presume stops would be used to protect from potentially large losses in the event of false signals? Does the system factor in or take into consideration leading indicators on their influence?
 
blueroadster said:
Just wanted to say thanks for the updates on your system, charts and commentary. I find the information that you share to be insightful and very useful. I'm following your NUGT/DUST system as well and greatly appreciate your work and thoughts.
Click to expand...

Thank you very much blueroadster. I appreciate it. I hope everyone who follows this system can make a nice return, including me!
 
blueroadster said:
For your NUGT/DUST timing system, have you also incorporated a hold in cash signal? For example, say NUGT made a run with a 40% return over a few days/weeks and further positive returns would appear to be at risk. In this example, is there consideration for a hold signal (i.e., moving to a cash position) to be generated until more data points are collected to then deterimine if NUGT should be repurchased or if a switch to going long in DUST is warranted instead. Are/did you develop the system with this type of strategy in mind or presume stops would be used to protect from potentially large losses in the event of false signals? Does the system factor in or take into consideration leading indicators on their influence?
Click to expand...

The system is designed to hold either NUGT or DUST. The idea is to hold the one with the most positive momentum. If neither one has positive momentum, (both flat lining), then we could conceivably go to cash. Just because the market takes one of these up 5-10-15% does not necessarily mean we move to the other. As we saw last week, being on the right side of the trade meant HUGE gains if you stayed with the momentum.

I do keep an eye on overbought/oversold indicators, especially the RSI, and look at many different time frames to get a feel for which way the trend wants to go.

The system does not use stops, but using them would be advisable after a large run-up. However, keep in mind that just because you place a stop at a certain price doesn't mean that you'll get that price if the action gaps far lower.

Good luck!
 
DUST down -52% this morning! Well, that was a shocker!

Then I realized that NUGT had the 10-1 reverse split, so everything's going to be a little screwy until this gets sorted out today. All my indicators just went out the window.

Flying by the seat of my pants right now....

:blink:
 
NUGT/DUST system switch:

Sold DUST @ $23.80

Bought NUGT @ $94.75

The system will now use a daily timing model, which should produce changes much less frequently.

I have not back tested this model, so please continue to pencil trade this system until it has proven itself successful.

Wish us luck!
 
Yes, my NUGT holding is cooking right now, up over 6% ... Of course, I had to recalculate my buy price for the stock split. I did'nt know how NUGT split would affect DUST price.. Seems investors are liking the NUGT split..
 
MrJohnRoss...NUGT/DUST system switch:

Sold DUST @ $23.80

Bought NUGT @ $94.75

The system will now use a daily timing model, which should produce changes much less frequently.

I have not back tested this model, so please continue to pencil trade this system until it has proven itself successful.

Wish us luck!
Click to expand...

Thank you for your efforts and sharing your System, I know trade at my own risk..
 
FYI, in addition to the reverse 1:10 split for NUGT, DUST also had a 2:1 forward split effective this morning.

See the details of all nine of the Direxion ETF Fund splits HERE.
 
MrJohnRoss....FYI, in addition to the reverse 1:10 split for DUST, NUGT also had a 2:1 forward split effective this morning.

See the details of all nine of the Direxion ETF Fund splits HERE.
Click to expand...


I think you mean 1:10 for NUGT, 2:1 DUST. Thanks for posting link..
 
Markets are up slightly, but I think there's not much strength in it. Just a day to basically stop dropping. Pretty weak countertrend rally so far IMHO. I'll continue to stay on the sidelines in the G Fund until I see more strength and a reversal in the technical indicators. I'm also going to continue holding my short positions of SRTY and FAZ, as I expect this market to fall further.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Markets are up slightly, but I think there's not much strength in it. Just a day to basically stop dropping. Pretty weak countertrend rally so far IMHO. I'll continue to stay on the sidelines in the G Fund until I see more strength and a reversal in the technical indicators. I'm also going to continue holding my short positions of SRTY and FAZ, as I expect this market to fall further.
Click to expand...

Looks like I spoke too soon! S&P is having a pretty decent rally today. Let's see how she holds going into the close. Kinda fading into the final hour. The real test will be how it looks tomorrow... whether we can get some follow through action.
 
As you may have guessed, the NUGT/DUST timing system will continue to hold NUGT. We may have some bumps in the road ahead, as we're nearing the upper BB again. The good news is the daily RSI is roughly at 62, which is not red hot, so we may have more room to run. Every day is a new adventure with these funds, so we'll have to see what tomorrow brings! Yeeee!

Wish us luck!
 
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