MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

The nice thing about using leveraged ETF's is when volatility strikes. If you are on the right side of the trade, you can make some incredible gains. Notice I said "IF".

That's one thing I long for is volatility. The NUGT/DUST system is perfect for this current volatile metals market.

I mean, where else can you make 10-15-20% in a day?

URTY/SRTY will get their chance, just not today. URTY is gently floating up, but there's no screaming trend change yet. And since the Dow and S&P have been heading slightly lower, there's no rush to buy into URTY IMO.

One thing to watch for is the ol' "head fake" move. Markets often like to open or close with some big moves, only to go the other direction immediately after. I think my system can account for that to some degree.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I'm watching DUST but if I take a position, it will be at the end of the day.

Wise move.

By the way, nice PIP ya got there.

 

[jpcavin]

Thank you Mr Ross

I would love to see DUST below 2 or 1 on the 2 period RSI. The closer to 0 the better. I'm thinking of scrapping my portfolio and starting over. Have my money all scattered in what I call miniature positions. May only play the leveraged etfs for a while. :nuts:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thank you Mr Ross

I would love to see DUST below 2 or 1 on the 2 period RSI. The closer to 0 the better. I'm thinking of scrapping my portfolio and starting over. Have my money all scattered in what I call miniature positions. May only play the leveraged etfs for a while. :nuts:

Just be careful, jp. Would hate to see you get burned. If you're on the wrong side, that +15% move can be a NEGATIVE -15% move very quickly, and you'll be hating these leveraged ETF's! Position sizing is of utmost importance here.

Just my two cents worth.

 

[jpcavin]

Yeah, I'm crazy like that sometimes. :nuts:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The "end of day" dip buyers couldn't help DUST out. Stayed long NUGT for a daily gain of +16.25%.

Also, AGQ up +8.66%

Rough day's work, but someone has to do it.

Now let's see what tomorrow brings!

:nuts:

 

[jpcavin]

Yep. Didn't look enticing enough to buy today.

 

[sniper]

The "end of day" dip buyers couldn't help DUST out. Stayed long NUGT for a daily gain of +16.25%.

Also, AGQ up +8.66%

Rough day's work, but someone has to do it.

Now let's see what tomorrow brings!

:nuts:

nice!!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks sniper. Wouldn't be surprised to see a counter-trend move in the precious metals market pretty soon. It's gone pretty far in the past three days, with NUGT up +39.1% since the last signal.

If the trend changes to DUST, I have no problem jumping over and riding the other raging bull. I'll gladly take what the market gives me.

 

[jpcavin]

It may be time to get out of NUGT. I missed the boat on DUST. Don't know...will have to see how it looks at closing time.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

As expected, DUST tried to rally right out of the gate. So far, it hasn't triggered a move, so I'm still holding NUGT.

 

[jpcavin]

As expected, DUST tried to rally right out of the gate. So far, it hasn't triggered a move, so I'm till holding NUGT.

Funny thing about the market...things never seem as they are until the end of the day. :toung:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The stock market seems to just want to float sideways with a slight negative bias. Happy to be in the G Fund while we wait for a clear direction. Stoch, RSI, and PPO are all trending lower on the daily charts for most of the indices.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Funny thing about the market...things never seem as they are until the end of the day. :toung:

Yes, there often are big moves either right out of the gate, or right before the final bell sounds. Human nature never changes.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT/DUST update. Just got a chance to look at the charts. System triggered a switch.

I sold my NUGT at $7.36.

Bought DUST at $65.64.

If you're paper trading this, let's see how this switch pans out.

Good luck!

 

[jpcavin]

NUGT/DUST update. Just got a chance to look at the charts. System triggered a switch.

I sold my NUGT at $7.36.

Bought DUST at $65.64.

If you're paper trading this, let's see how this switch pans out.

Good luck!

I should have bought it yesterday when it was under $62 but I was too busy creating capital. Not sure I would have jumped in if I had the funds though. I was waiting for it to deacrease further. I'll be on the NUGT train when it comes back around, that's for sure.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I should have bought it yesterday when it was under $62 but I was too busy creating capital. Not sure I would have jumped in if I had the funds though. I was waiting for it to deacrease further. I'll be on the NUGT train when it comes back around, that's for sure.

Hind sight is always 20-20. Having a system will take the guess work out of whether or not to act.

The only problem is (of course), the system will not work 100% of the time. You have to accept the bad with the good, and play the odds.

Only 23 of 31 trades were positive in back tests with my system. That means 8 trades were losers.

Even though a 74% success rate is considered pretty good, I have to accept the fact that I will lose 26% of the time. Also, most of the losses were relatively small, and there was an abundance of very good gains which more than offset the losses.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Soooo... yesterday, I put in an order to buy some shares of AAPL. Right before hitting the "execute" button, I backed off, because I thought I could get a better return with NUGT/DUST.

Here's what AAPL looks like today: Doh!




:blink:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I guess that's about the same thing as the 50 day ema and the 250 day ema. It really can be that simple. Do you know the % gain on that method? I know one thing...its better than mine.

Hey MrBowl, sorry it took so long, but just got a chance to run the numbers in Excel for the "Weekly S&P Timing System". Here's the results:

Buy & Hold:
$10,000 ==> $25,366.28

Weekly Timing System:
$10,000 ==> $50,857.22


Basically, you'd double the returns of "buy & hold".

The above assumes that you earn 0% sitting in cash during the time you are out of the market. In actuality, you would at least earn some small percentage, so your actual results would be a little better.

I know BT and others would not agree with anything but "buy and hold", but it's pretty hard to argue with these results.

If you want to take this system one step further (the next logical step), here's how to make even more...

Buy an inverse S&P500 ETF when you get the sell signal. When the market goes down, your fund will go up. Here's the results:

Weekly Timing System using + and - ETF's:
$10,000 ==> $101,964.43


I won't even talk about using leveraged ETF's for even more power, but you get the idea.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The NUGT/DUST timing system remains holding DUST. Let's see if the gap can get filled in the next few days.

Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings! :nuts: