MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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Was going to go 100% S this morning, but the I Fund is beginning to show some possible strength. Went 50/50 S/I. I realize we may be near a top, but with only a little over a week left in May, it will be easy to change allocations if necessary.

Good luck!
 
Decided to use my final May IFT to move half to cash, and half evenly split between C/S. My 50% move to the I Fund on 5/22 was the worst possible day, as it was the very peak of the I Fund. Japan began crashing the very next day. Just my luck. The rest of the market has been following suit, and is looking rather shaky, but I still want to have half my money in the game, because (so far) this year, it has paid to remain fully invested. It seems that technical analysis for the most part has only gotten me whipsawed out of positions this year.
 
I've been watching AAPL form a solid bottom here for the last month, and decided that it's looking pretty strong. See graph below:


aapl.png

What I like here is the fact that Apple set a series of lower highs and lower lows for many months, until it formed what appears to be a significant bottom in mid April. The long term downtrend line was finally broken at the end of April, and a small re-test of the bottom occurred in mid May. We are now seeing a series of higher highs and higher lows, which should mean we are hopefully finally seeing this stock make a strong move higher. This would be great news for the broader indices, as AAPL is obviously a huge component of the S&P and the NASDAQ.

Even if AAPL were to only re-test it's old high near 693, that would mean a gain of over 50% from today's level. That would be a pretty good return in my book. I decided to pull the trigger yesterday at $452. Let's hope this pans out.

Good luck!
 
Apple looks like a good buy right now, it stopped the skid and looks like a trend reversal is in progress. good luck! =)
 
Looks to me like this market has been rolling over since the high on 5/22. S&P is now down -3% since that high, and looking at the chart, it appears that the RSI, MACD, Stoch, and 5 day EMA all have momentum lower.


$spx.png


It appears that we are now testing the lower Bollinger Band, with the 50 day EMA not far below that. The major uptrend line would be the next serious test of support, which is currently near 1600.

Of course, every time we've seen this happen previously this year, I bailed out, only to see the market EXPLODE HIGHER soon after I sold. Maybe this will happen again this time, I don't know. You'll have to ask Bernanke and his bankster buddies what they have up their sleeves. Then again, in a "normal" market, these technical indicators may prove to be good indicators to get out. Since I'm 1/2 in equities, and 1/2 in cash, I'll continue to watch the action until (probably) either the 50 day or long-term uptrend line is broken before fully heading to the sidelines.

Note: A 50% retracement of the advance from last November's low, would be all the way down to 1514. That's a -7% loss from current levels.
A 61.8% retracement would be all the way down to 1473. That's a -9.7% drop from here.

With all the talk of the Hindenberg Omen flashing sell signals, perhaps it's finally time to sit up and take notice? The NYAD line and the NAAD line are both heading lower. The Utilities sector has gotten crushed since May 1, and the Transports are rolling over as well. Bonds have been smashed. Perhaps it's time for the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq to follow suit?

Good luck!
 
The problem is that all the bearish signs are obvious. I'm betting this is yet another reload, but I will admit that this decline is much different than the ones we've had previously this year. The S&P has not hit the 50 dma yet and think I have to allow for that before I get overly bearish. That would allow it to dip below the lower bollie as well.
 
Looks like the S&P is sitting on the 50 DMA, and the Dow is right behind it. Nasdaq hasn't been hit as hard. Yet.

One thing that's of concern is the Transports. Yesterday's test of the 50 DMA melted completely down today. If the rest of the market follows suit, this could get ugly.


$tran.png


The other concern is the Utilites. The average is now sitting on the 61.8% fib line from it's peak. It SHOULD find support here, so the next few days will be telling.


$util.png


If things continue to deteriorate, I will pull the plug and move to G.

Good luck!
 
Bought some Palladium and Platinum yesterday. Well, at least an ETF of Palladium and Platinum (SPPP).

Read this interesting article about how demand is rising, but production is falling. Simple economics should eventually come into play here, and cause prices to rise. (Notice I used the operative word "should")?

In any event, SPPP is looking good for now. Let's see how far she'll fly.


SPPP.png


Good luck!
 
I have been in the metals for a while and they haven't worked out well for me but I know that with the dollar going down they will eventually rise. I use the metals and real estate in Roth to balance my stocks in the tsp. They are more for a balance than for return.

Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk 2
 
Seems like every time I read an article about something, it's already too late to get in on the action. I remember reading about how China was going to stop selling us rare earth, which meant that our domestic rare earth companies were going to see a boon in production and their stock would go through the roof. When I went to look up their stocks, I saw that they had already been going through the roof for several months. When I checked back a few weeks later, they had topped and were on the way down. I'm not saying this is going to happen to you with SPPP, but it just reminded me of that. Good luck though!
 
Sensei said:
Seems like every time I read an article about something, it's already too late to get in on the action. I remember reading about how China was going to stop selling us rare earth, which meant that our domestic rare earth companies were going to see a boon in production and their stock would go through the roof. When I went to look up their stocks, I saw that they had already been going through the roof for several months. When I checked back a few weeks later, they had topped and were on the way down. I'm not saying this is going to happen to you with SPPP, but it just reminded me of that. Good luck though!
Click to expand...

That's because someone gets the information well in advance of the average Joe like me and you. Just like the stock market.
 
Sensei said:
Seems like every time I read an article about something, it's already too late to get in on the action. I remember reading about how China was going to stop selling us rare earth, which meant that our domestic rare earth companies were going to see a boon in production and their stock would go through the roof. When I went to look up their stocks, I saw that they had already been going through the roof for several months. When I checked back a few weeks later, they had topped and were on the way down. I'm not saying this is going to happen to you with SPPP, but it just reminded me of that. Good luck though!
Click to expand...

Without a doubt, the short term fluctuations in this fund could be dramatic. Notice the huge drop on April 15? Who knows what caused that move, but obviously it shows that volatility is alive and well with this fund. This is one of those "buy a piece for your portfolio, and put it on the shelf for a longer term gain" type of holding. Unless it goes parabolic in the near term, then you'd like to sell early. :laugh:
 
It appears to me that momentum is gathering strength for a move lower for the markets. Today the market is up a bit, and I'm using it to move to a 100% cash position. Here's what I see...


$spx.png


Today's price, the 50 day EMA, the lower BB, and the long uptrend line are all currently being intersected. This is a critical point in the chart, and I might expect a major change could be in the works.

What leads me to believe we may be heading lower from here is three of the indicators that I like to use are all pointing lower: The RSI, the PPO (MACD), and the Stochastic.

1.) RSI, which reached an overbought condition at the recent market high in mid May, has turned decidedly lower, and is making a series of lower highs and lower lows.
2.) PPO had a cross over during the week of May 20th. The downside momentum on this indicator is showing a very negative slope. Take a look at the last time the MACD was below zero. We haven't been there since the market bottomed last November. I suspect the odds are high that we'll go below that zero line in the next few days.
3.) Stochastic tried to go higher during this last market bounce, but it looks like it's going to fail. Stoch is now heading back down, which is not a good sign.

One more item:

4.) The other thing I notice is that the 5 day EMA is sloping lower as well, and making a series of lower highs, and lower lows, which is another warning sign.

There just doesn't appear to me (and my untrained eyes), that there's a lot of good technical evidence to support much of a move higher for the markets right now.

Based on the above, I decided to use my 1st June IFT to move to a 100% cash (G Fund) position. The first Fibb line (38.2%) is at 1555. Perhaps we'll test that in the next few weeks.

Good luck!
 
Over the years whenever I found myself so far down the wet, chilly, well that my feet were firmly planted on the bottom - is when I did my best investing as a contrarian. There comes a time when fear needs to take a back seat to progress.
 
Without a doubt, staying 100% invested in the S Fund has paid off nicely so far this year. If only these conditions lasted forever. I don't believe they will. My guess is that the odds of a market correction are increasing. I'll gladly buy in at lower prices.
 
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