MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Ditto what Craigerv said. But it also sounds like you think the risk is worth it, eh? And nice gains already - congrats on that!

Thanks Khotso and craigerv, but I could lose it all tomorrow. Until I sell, I've gained nothing.

Looks like stock futures are down this evening. The market needs a breather. Perhaps we'll have a few mild down days before a resumption above 1422 on the S&P, which was the high for the year.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Looking back on the week, perhaps I should have sold 1/2 my position in TNA, just to lock in some gains. When I look at the graph, it looks a little toppy to me, and it may be rolling over to the downside.

My model says wait until 55.45 to sell. Perhaps we'll see another day of the markets treading water on Monday before the big up move on Tuesday and Wednesday! :nuts:

Good luck, and have a great weekend!

 

[craigerv]

Another important chart to look at weekly is the relative strength of the C Fund vs the S Fund. At the end of June, I switched from C to S because of the strength of S.

Then I got too busy, and didn't pay attention, and look what happened. Literally several days later, C began to outperform S in a BIG way.

Now, of course, it's time to decide if it's worthwhile to burn an IFT to switch to the C Fund. Had I caught this yesterday (July 31), I would have made the switch, but now, it may not be worth it.

For those of you who are not familiar with how this chart works, when C outperforms S, the line goes up. And when S outperforms C, the line goes down. We may be a bit overextended on the relative strength of C. Let's see how this plays out...

View attachment 19799

I'm curious why you're using the Wilshire 4500? Doesn't the tsp website say that the S Fund is supposed to replicate the Dow Jones TSM Index? The trend appears to be the same so it doesn't make a difference in this case.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I'm curious why you're using the Wilshire 4500? Doesn't the tsp website say that the S Fund is supposed to replicate the Dow Jones TSM Index? The trend appears to be the same so it doesn't make a difference in this case.

I believe they are equivalent. Both are supposed to represent the 5,000 largest U.S. stocks minus the S&P500. It's easy to type in $EMW on stockcharts, and make a comparison. Not sure what the ticker is for the DJ TSM Index.

 

[MaStA]

Hello John, how is your TNA/TZA system coming along? Any new signals it is shooting off as of late? I still am holding onto my TZA shares even though I am guessing that is the opposite of your system since you are still in the S fund on TSP. Thanks for any updates you have!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Hello John, how is your TNA/TZA system coming along? Any new signals it is shooting off as of late? I still am holding onto my TZA shares even though I am guessing that is the opposite of your system since you are still in the S fund on TSP. Thanks for any updates you have!

Still holding TNA. System says to continue to hold until we reach 55.37 or higher. Seasonality says we should have a pretty good week, but so far it's been a tug of war between bulls and bears, without much to show for it.

One of the charts concerning me is the ratio of the S&P to the VIX. This is showing an overbought condition, and will likely need to correct itself before we can continue higher. This means that the S&P needs to go down, and/or the VIX needs to go up. If we get a strong down day, I will relinquish my position and go to cash. I'm hoping this doesn't happen, but you have to know when to hold 'em, and when to fold 'em.




Good luck!

 

[jkenjohnson]

Still holding TNA. System says to continue to hold until we reach 55.37 or higher. Seasonality says we should have a pretty good week, but so far it's been a tug of war between bulls and bears, without much to show for it.

One of the charts concerning me is the ratio of the S&P to the VIX. This is showing an overbought condition, and will likely need to correct itself before we can continue higher. This means that the S&P needs to go down, and/or the VIX needs to go up. If we get a strong down day, I will relinquish my position and go to cash. I'm hoping this doesn't happen, but you have to know when to hold 'em, and when to fold 'em.


View attachment 19945

Good luck!

What do you consider "a strong down day"?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

What do you consider "a strong down day"?

Haven't seen much upside or downside in TNA in the last week, mostly ~1% or so, which is in the noise.

I don't have an exact number to give you, but if I saw blood red in the charts, I'd head for the exits.

So far, today is looking positive. Let's see how the final couple of hours hold up....

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Don't look now, but the transports are making an up move! Now that's a surprise!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

News you can use:

West Coast NFL Teams Usually Beat East Coast Teams on Monday Night Because of Our Body's Internal Clock

West Coast teams won 63% of the time, and by an average margin of 14 points.

I'll take that bet.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

More news you can use:

A 20% Gain In Three Months - Trading This Hated Metal

... and 49% in six months.

(Disclosure: I hold AGQ, which is the 3X Long Silver ETF)

Once again, I like the odds.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Wow, Transports up 60+! TNA up 2.29%!

Perhaps this is the good omen we have been waiting for. It appears the market may break to the upside, at least in the short term.

55.32 is the magic number for TNA. We closed today at 54.54. Let's bust through it tomorrow, shall we?

Birch, spread some bull manure around here, will ya?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

AGQ up 2.7%
TNA up 1.9%

The bullish posture of this market continues, even with WMT and FB getting slammed.

TNA has met my price objective, but hasn't peaked yet. Will now watch for the peak.

I'm trying to integrate my TNA spreadsheet into my chart analysis to create a double confirmation signal that I can use to actively trade TNA/TZA with a higher degree of success. This may take some time, but I know it will be worth it.

Good luck everyone!

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX has finally turned negative again - the 13.70 level the other day may be very telling going forward. Yes, the sweet smell of superlative bull manure is stinking up the place today. More importantly is the hoof dust cloud that is forming in the distance - and when it gets here you gotta roll with the bulls. Spain is currently leading.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

With 10 minutes until the market closes, and TNA at 56.44, both the charts and the spreadsheet are saying we are in selling range. I can hang on to see what tomorrow brings... or I could take the easy, safe route and sell for a 14% gain.

Anyone wanna guess what I'm gonna do???

:blink:

 

[craigerv]

Sounds like you've reached your target from a few days ago, congrats hangin on! But what is the point of an exit strategy if you don't use it? I think you're going to exit, at least partially. Sometimes when I get a little euphoric I allow myself half a move. As for me, I'm still all systems go, but then again I don't really know anything about TNA.

 

[Dutchy]

With 10 minutes until the market closes, and TNA at 56.44, both the charts and the spreadsheet are saying we are in selling range. I can hang on to see what tomorrow brings... or I could take the easy, safe route and sell for a 14% gain.

Anyone wanna guess what I'm gonna do???

:blink:

A 14% gain, nice !!! Congratulations.... I had no settled funds to purchase TNA 3 days ago whe I received a buy, so bought TZA today at close with just 15% of my stash hoping for a pop tomorrow or Monday when I'll purchase more ....

 

[MrJohnRoss]

A 14% gain, nice !!! Congratulations.... I had no settled funds to purchase TNA 3 days ago whe I received a buy, so bought TZA today at close with just 15% of my stash hoping for a pop tomorrow or Monday when I'll purchase more ....

Sounds like you've reached your target from a few days ago, congrats hangin on! But what is the point of an exit strategy if you don't use it? I think you're going to exit, at least partially. Sometimes when I get a little euphoric I allow myself half a move. As for me, I'm still all systems go, but then again I don't really know anything about TNA.

Well, price fell just out at the close for my spreadsheet, so I'm going to hold for another day. (Needed to reach 56.38, closed at 56.33). Also, it looks like the market may just be beginning a strong up-move, so I'm anticipating further strength tomorrow. Current stock futures are up slightly as well.

The thing about my model... prices can continue to climb for several days before finally reaching a peak and heading lower, even after reaching a satisfactory sell signal. I know I should be satisfied with my gains, but I think we may have further to go.

Good luck everyone!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Looking for TNA to hit 56.97 today to reach my target.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sold TNA today near the close in one account. Buy price was 49.59, sell price was 57.82, for a gain of 16.6%.

We may go higher on Monday, but thought it prudent to take some risk off the table. Besides, both the spreadsheet model, and the chart model said it was time to sell.

Still have another account holding TNA as well, so we'll see what next week brings.

Did not purchase TZA yet. Going to keep some powder dry until we see how things look on Monday.

Have a great weekend everyone!