MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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Three things of note today:

- $TNX (10 Yr Treasury Note Yield) has rolled over, and is now at 1.745%, compared to it's high yesterday of 1.863%. This is a negative for the market.

- UUP (Dollar Index) continues it's slide, but is oversold. Expect a bounce up soon, which would also be a negative for the market.

- $VIX (Volatility Index) is higher for the third straight day, and currently sits at 15.17, compared to it's low of 13.30 on Friday. A rising VIX is a warning for the market.

Also, just to throw it in, seasonality shows 5 of the next 6 days to be negative for the market.

Probably just a short term pause, but caution may be warranted.

Good luck!
 
Christopher said:
Wonder how these guys are actually betting, though - with their WORDS, or their ACTIONS. ;)
Click to expand...

From the article:

"There was also news last week in an SEC filing that both George Soros and John Paulson had increased their investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest publicly traded physical gold exchange traded fund (ETF).
Mr Soros upped his stake in the ETF to 884,400 shares from 319,550 and Mr Paulson bought 4.53m shares, bringing his stake to 21.3m.
At the current price of about $156 a share, these are new investments of about $88m of Mr Soros’ cash and more than $700m from Mr Paulson’s funds. These are significant positions."

Hope that answers your question.
 
Glad to see the market reverse itself after a shaky morning session. Almost got scared enough to sell my TQQQ, but held on. It's now trading up ~1%

Also glad to see LOW shoot up off of it's recent poor earnings announcement. LOW is up ~ 3% today. Keep this up, and I can sell for a little more profit.

Not to keep beating the drum, but AGQ continues to climb higher. Up another 3.7% today. Looks like it's getting pretty overextended though, and is due for a pullback. If you're thinking of getting in, you many want to wait for the pullback / shakeout.

AGQ.png
 
I don't normally look at using the I Fund in the TSP, but here's something to chew on...

Below is a relative strength graph of EFA (I Fund equivalent) compared to $EMW (S Fund equivalent) since the beginning of 2012.

In this particular graph, when the I Fund is underperforming, the line heads down, as it did from the beginning of the year until the beginning of June. At that point, the I Fund bottomed and began to outperform the S Fund, which it continues to do today. Note the uptrend line since June 1 in the graph, in the MACD, and the RSI. This can also be confirmed by looking at the monthly leaders on the Autotracker. Everyone leading this month has a return equal to the I Fund's return, which would mean they all likely hold 100% I.

Since we are near the end of the month, it may be a good idea to consider burning an IFT, and adding some exposure to the I Fund, if you don't already have a position. I certainly will.

Good luck!


efa.png
 
Sold my small position in TQQQ for a 3.6% loss. Should have followed my own system instead of thinking the market was going to go up. Doh!

Surprised to see LOW continue higher, even on a down day. Up another 0.81% today. Keep on coming...

Sold my position in AGQ, even though it's screaming higher. Up another 5.4% today. Just felt that it had gotten too overextended, and due for a pullback. Bought it on 5/17 for 40.81, sold it today at 46.74 for a total gain of 14.5%. Not too shabby. Will likely buy back in if/when we get the pullback. I think the odds are high that gold and silver still have some room to run. The chart below is a textbook definition of overextended. :worried:

So now I'm sitting almost completely in cash, and will do some research to determine my next move....

Good luck!


AGQ.png
 
Happy_Trails said:
Is your signal still indicating to buy S fund?
Click to expand...

Yes, for TSP purposes, the signal is 100% invested in stocks. Currently in the S Fund, but will likely move some/part/all to I Fund by month's end. Unless, of course, we get a sell signal.

The individual stock moves (TNA/TZA/AGQ, etc.) that are posted here are more "short term" moves, suitable for IRA's, etc., whereas the TSP signals can be considered more "intermediate term" moves.

Hope that helps.
 
The Stoxx Europe 600 recently experienced a 'golden cross'. Historically, this index was higher both one month and six months after the golden cross occurred.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Yes, for TSP purposes, the signal is 100% invested in stocks. Currently in the S Fund, but will likely move some/part/all to I Fund by month's end. Unless, of course, we get a sell signal.

The individual stock moves (TNA/TZA/AGQ, etc.) that are posted here are more "short term" moves, suitable for IRA's, etc., whereas the TSP signals can be considered more "intermediate term" moves.

Hope that helps.
Click to expand...

Yes, thanks.
 
Birchtree said:
The Stoxx Europe 600 recently experienced a 'golden cross'. Historically, this index was higher both one month and six months after the golden cross occurred.
Click to expand...

The golden cross is a slower indicator, but can be somewhat useful for longer term trends, IMO. In the TSP, it's all about being "in" or "out" of stocks at the right time, and choosing the highest relative strength fund to maximize your gains. Playing relative strength may prove a sticky wicket come September, the harshest month of the year for the market.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
The golden cross is a slower indicator, but can be somewhat useful for longer term trends, IMO. In the TSP, it's all about being "in" or "out" of stocks at the right time, and choosing the highest relative strength fund to maximize your gains. Playing relative strength may prove a sticky wicket come September, the harshest month of the year for the market.
Click to expand...

pretty much, I hate that 2IFT limit, have to factor in the equation how many moves you have left
 
sniper said:
pretty much, I hate that 2IFT limit, have to factor in the equation how many moves you have left
Click to expand...

I hear ya, good buddy. It's like playing chess, only your moves are restricted. So we gotta figure out how to win this game with the rules we've been given. (I also wish we had at least until 1 hour before market close to make trades.)

But, according to the "golden rule"... He who has all the gold, makes all the rules.

:rolleyes:
 
MrJohnRoss said:
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

"According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent..."
Click to expand...

I wish, but I think 2012 will be the year it is wrong...
 
MrJohnRoss said:
I hear ya, good buddy. It's like playing chess, only your moves are restricted. So we gotta figure out how to win this game with the rules we've been given. (I also wish we had at least until 1 hour before market close to make trades.)

But, according to the "golden rule"... He who has all the gold, makes all the rules.

:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Ah, but in Chess there's ways to cover yourself. There's forks, pins, skewers, forced moves, mating nets, etc. There's a myriad of ways to deal with a problem. With TSP, however, there's only a couple of options, and none of them are user-friendly.

To C, or not to C, that is the question.
Whether 'tis Nobler in the mind to suffer
The Slings and Arrows of outrageous Bulls,
Or to take Arms against a Sea of Bears,
And by opposing end them: to die, to sleep
No more; and by a sleep, to say we end
The endless guessing, and the thousand Trendlines
that Funds are heir to? 'Tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To die to sleep,
To perchance to Invest: Ay, there's the rub,
For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come,
When we have locked in our profits,
Must give us pause. There's the uncertainty
That makes Calamity of long investments:
For who would bear the Highs and Lows of the market,
The Fed's wrongs, the rich man's follies,
The pangs of despised Losses, the TSP's rules,
The insolence of Bernake, and the Stocks
That patient merit of the unworthy takes,
When he himself might his Fortune make
With a Call Option? Who would Buffet bear,
To grunt and sweat under noontime deadline,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscovered Stock, from whose profit
No TSPer may take, Puzzles the will,
And makes us rather bear those IFTs we have,
Than fly to others that we know not of.
Thus Conscience does make Cowards of us all,
And thus the Native hue of Resolution
Is sicklied o'er, with the pale cast of QEIII
And enterprises of great pitch and moment,
With this regard their Profits turn awry,
And lose the name of Action. Soft you now,
The fair Jolie? Nymph, in thy Orisons
Be all my sins remembered.
 
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