MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Still trying to develop the TNA/TZA timing system, which uses a combination of a fairly simple spreadsheet, and technical analysis charting.

Reviewing the last trade, I got in a day early (see green up arrow). I only used the spreadsheet signal, and should have waited for the chart to confirm. Lesson learned.

The sell signal was confirmed by both methods, and produced a sell signal at nearly the exact top (see red down arrow).

It was at this point that a brave person (obviously not me) would have bought TZA for the down cycle.

Here's what TZA has done since that signal:

8/20: 16.39
8/21: 16.42
8/22: 16.64
8/23: 16.98

That's obviously an uptrend, and would have produced a nice little 3.6% gain so far this week. Again, lesson learned.

I plan to continue to post my moves here, in case anyone is interested. Hopefully this information is helpful to some of you.

Not sure where all of this is leading. Let's see how this plays out for the rest of the year, and then perhaps, if it performs well, I can expand this to a wider audience.

Just realize that even if the system has a success rate of 70-80%, that means 20-30% of the trades will lose money.

Any suggestions or comments are appreciated.

 

[A2Z1112]

So your system is still holding TZA?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

So your system is still holding TZA?

Yes.

 

[A2Z1112]

Thanks! I am still holding TZA which I bought when we last spoke. Nice to have confirmation!!! Have a great weekend!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks! I am still holding TZA which I bought when we last spoke. Nice to have confirmation!!! Have a great weekend!

Thanks A2Z. What was your buy date/price? Just curious. You are obviously much braver than me.

I hope your trade turns out very profitable for you.

 

[A2Z1112]

Purchased TZA 8/16 and 8/17 for average cost at $16.40. Would have been a down day today if not for BEN's comments. Will hold till early next week. Not sure how much more TZA will rise. Don't believe this trade is long unless Ben disappoints and/or something occurs in Europe. Will be checking your posts frequently on TZA sell signal!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

This is a sad statement about the financial intelligence of college students:

College Students Don't Have a Clue How Credit Cards Work

:blink:

 

[Dutchy]

This is a sad statement about the financial intelligence of college students:

College Students Don't Have a Clue How Credit Cards Work

:blink:

Their parents were direlict in their dutes...... I'm amazed sometimes how incompetent today's parents are....... My Dad took me by the hand to the bank to open my first savings account from my paper route... Sad. These poor kids will suffer later from unmanageable debts..

 

[ILoveTDs]

Their parent aren't the only bad example, look at their government.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

A very quiet day for the markets. Not much movement to get excited about. TSP timing system is on the brink of a possible sell signal, but keeps hanging in there. Still 100% S Fund at this time.

No changes to the TNA/TZA timing model. Although the model is holding TZA, I remain in cash.

Just a heads up, tomorrow will be a doozey of a day at work, then I'm off to Seattle for a week of R&R. Not sure how often I'll be checking in, if at all.

Hope all your trades are profitable ones!

JR

 

[konakathy]

A very quiet day for the markets. Not much movement to get excited about. TSP timing system is on the brink of a possible sell signal, but keeps hanging in there. Still 100% S Fund at this time.

No changes to the TNA/TZA timing model. Although the model is holding TZA, I remain in cash.

Just a heads up, tomorrow will be a doozey of a day at work, then I'm off to Seattle for a week of R&R. Not sure how often I'll be checking in, if at all.

Hope all your trades are profitable ones!

JR

Aloha, you.

Hope you have a good vacation. This is the best time to visit Seattle. The weather is usually good, moods are high, autumn is on the way. I loved this time
of year in Seattle. Are you going to Bumbershoot at the Seattle Center this weekend? If you love to listen to music - go! It's a really fun weekend. You are
within walking distance to all the local hotspots , great restaurants, Pike's Place ... so you'll have plenty to do. Have fun!!!!

A hui hou

 

[konakathy]

Happy Birthday!!!

Eat lots of cake!!!

 

[nnuut]

HAPPY BIRTHDAY MRJR!! Enjoy!
​

 

[MaStA]

Happy Birthday John!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Happy, Happy Birthday !!

 

[eccougar]

Happy Birthday, John.

 

[sniper]

happy b-day man!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thank you Little Kona Girl, nnuut, MaStA, RMI, eccougar, and sniper for the birthday wishes! Another trip around the sun completed, and hopefully a few more to go before my mission is complete.

My birthday wish is that everyone who reads these words experience tremendous personal success, peace and prosperity in the coming year.

Best wishes to all,

John

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Back from vacay. Seattle / the Pacific Northwest was fantabulous. Perfect weather, great food, fun friends, beautiful scenery... couldn't ask for a better little get away.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Using relative strength analysis, it appears that the S Fund is now outperforming all others. It's easily beating the C Fund, and the "up and comer I Fund" has fallen by the wayside.

Take a look at the chart below...





This chart compares the S Fund ($EMW) to the I Fund (EFA) since the beginning of the year. The S Fund did very well from January through late May, when it obviously peaked. At that point, the I Fund was extremely undervalued, compared to the S Fund. Notice the MACD rolled over and crossed lines in early June. (See red down arrow). The I Fund then outperformed S until mid August. (Notice the MACD crossover at the green arrow). You can also see that the price ratio clearly crossed the 20 day EMA at the end of August as well, signaling a change in strength.

I remain 100% invested in the S Fund at this time, although I missed the I Fund train when it chugged ahead for a few months.

Good luck everyone!