MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[JamesE]

I don't know Ken, I'd say there are probably hundreds of folks here who don't chime in but use info from guys like yourself and John to make decisions with their accounts. Let's face it we're gov't employees, not pro traders or brokers. With the corrupt TSP system, we need every edge we can get. I believe that's Tom's intent with this site.

Keyboard heros are everywhere nowadays, don't let them deter you from original goal.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I don't know Ken, I'd say there are probably hundreds of folks here who don't chime in but use info from guys like yourself and John to make decisions with their accounts. Let's face it we're gov't employees, not pro traders or brokers. With the corrupt TSP system, we need every edge we can get. I believe that's Tom's intent with this site.

Keyboard heros are everywhere nowadays, don't let them deter you from original goal.

I wasn't saying anything about IT or anyone in particular - but it is a hassle to defend your own system on this site.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Could today be the beginning of a market reversal? If you're long TNA, odds favor a decent gain.

The Advance/Decline line for the Nasdaq went outside the lower Bollinger Band yesterday, which would indicate an extreme oversold condition. It has bounced back up today, even with AAPL dragging the Nasdaq down. That's a good sign.

The CCI appears to have bottomed, and has turned back up, which is another good sign. Certainly not a guarantee, as you can see the same thing happened in early May. Back then, the market took a hard dump right after some initial positive signs.

Would like to see the PPO, which is declining, begin to show some strength, and begin a turn-around. Since it's a slower indicator, it may take some time for that to occur.

However, all in all, the technical odds appear favorable for a short term run up. Let's hope we get a decent bounce, and not a dead cat bounce.

Good luck!

 

[jkenjohnson]

Looked like yesterday and today would sink and BAM. Solid gains over two days.

 

[MaStA]

Well MJN is now below $70. Exceeded their EPS, but I guess their outlook isn't great so the stock fell quite a bit. Hmm... with them having such a low three year beta isn't it kind of strange for the huge fluctuation in their stock price? Maybe I don't understand the beta thing as much as I should lol. At least expectations for the future are lower so the stock should be able to get back on its feet and possibly surprise us next quarter. Are you still considering a buy on this John?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Well MJN is now below $70. Exceeded their EPS, but I guess their outlook isn't great so the stock fell quite a bit. Hmm... with them having such a low three year beta isn't it kind of strange for the huge fluctuation in their stock price? Maybe I don't understand the beta thing as much as I should lol. At least expectations for the future are lower so the stock should be able to get back on its feet and possibly surprise us next quarter. Are you still considering a buy on this John?

Wow! Beware of catching a falling knife. I think it's a great buy, but perhaps give it some time to bottom out. You might nibble on some now, and buy more later. This would be another good holding for your dividend payers. Buy it when it's cheap, and reap the benefits for years to come.

 

[MaStA]

Wow! Beware of catching a falling knife. I think it's a great buy, but perhaps give it some time to bottom out. You might nibble on some now, and buy more later. This would be another good holding for your dividend payers. Buy it when it's cheap, and reap the benefits for years to come.

I'll keep an eye on it. I don't really know much about the company. I picked up some CAT today, but it went from being up over 1% to being in the red now...oh well this is going on my long Roth position and I'm not touching it. Many analysts are saying it will be back over $100 in the near future. We shall see...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

After two solid days of 100+ point gains on the Dow, wouldn't be surprised to see the market take a bit of a breather for a day or two. The market usually has strength at the end of the month, beginning of the month, so it could go either way.

With TNA up over 7% on Friday, I'm not expecting a big gain early this week. Still trying out my improved timing system in real time, so we'll see how it does. Nothing in life is guaranteed, but I like the idea of tilting the odds in my favor.

Good luck this week!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Chart of the day:

If this year's stock market behaves like previous election years (since 1928), we could be on the cusp of a VERY NICE RALLY into early September.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Another important chart to look at weekly is the relative strength of the C Fund vs the S Fund. At the end of June, I switched from C to S because of the strength of S.

Then I got too busy, and didn't pay attention, and look what happened. Literally several days later, C began to outperform S in a BIG way.

Now, of course, it's time to decide if it's worthwhile to burn an IFT to switch to the C Fund. Had I caught this yesterday (July 31), I would have made the switch, but now, it may not be worth it.

For those of you who are not familiar with how this chart works, when C outperforms S, the line goes up. And when S outperforms C, the line goes down. We may be a bit overextended on the relative strength of C. Let's see how this plays out...

 

[nnuut]

Nice chart and a great tool, thanks.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Nice chart and a great tool, thanks.

Thanks. It's a quick and easy way to visually see which fund is outperforming.

Maybe a 50/50 or 60/40 split may be in order...

 

[mayday]

The S-fund has gone down so much recently that its odds of going up are better than C in the short term IMHO.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The S-fund has gone down so much recently that its odds of going up are better than C in the short term IMHO.

I tend to agree with you mayday. The relative strength of C compared to S has risen very high, and is due for a pullback. Let's watch and see if we're right...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The world's best election forecasting model says Obama will lose the election come November.

Read it and weep:

It's the Economy, Stupid.

 

[Birchtree]

This is for all those college graduates who voted for the bumper sticker of hope and change back in 2008, who are now underemployed and living again with Mom and Dad and mowing neighborhood lawns for beer money. "One of the most quoted, unquestioned maxims in life goes like this: If youy're not liberal when you're young, you have no heart. If you're not conservative when you're older, you have no brain." Yes, gentleman elections have consequences.

 

[HookemDanno]

I couldn't have said it better!! The sooner we get the marxist out, the better for all of us and the country. If not we will lose all that has been given to us to pass on. We need to turn it around and pass it on to our children better than we recieved.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

You've got that reggae slant DOWN, FireWeather!

But seriously, it's a simple formula based on war deaths and growth of real disposable income. Based on the study, the war deaths in Afghanastan will have a negligible effect, but growth of real disposable income has been negative. You can throw away all the statistical analysis, and read the meat of the study starting on page 13. The graph on page 15 says it all... Obama is expected to garner only 47.5% of the votes, hence the prediction of a one term presidency.

I realize that there are other indicators, as you said. There could also be a "black swan" event, but I'm not counting on it. Just passing along the information that has been highly reliable. Take it for what it's worth.

 

[Happy_Trails]

This is for all those college graduates who voted for the bumper sticker of hope and change back in 2008, who are now underemployed and living again with Mom and Dad and mowing neighborhood lawns for beer money. "One of the most quoted, unquestioned maxims in life goes like this: If youy're not liberal when you're young, you have no heart. If you're not conservative when you're older, you have no brain." Yes, gentleman elections have consequences.

So, were you liberal when you were younger, Birch?

 

[Birchtree]

Yes I was liberal when I was young - all the way through my Vietnam days included. I became a born again conservative after yellow back Jimmy gave all those draft dodgers amnesty. And I've never looked back.