MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Wouldn't be too surprised to see a sell signal today (or tomorrow). S&P is beginning to break below it's upward trend line, and is on it's 5th day in a row of declines. The NASDAQ looks even worse. If this downdraft continues, a sell signal will be inevitable.

 

[PessOptimist]

JR and all contributors I appreciate your take on world view and the market.

I wanted to comment on the short discussion on engineers.

In my 15 years with my current agency and my 24 years in the military I have dealt with many engineers.

Good and bad.

Many of the bad were just bad, wrong career. Many of the bad were unwilling to learn the "nuts and bolts" of what they were hired for.

The good were willing to admit that school had not totally prepared them for the job they were in and learned about it. Some of those good were just bad at being engineers. Most of the good learned what they could about the current job and applied what they had learned in school to it.

One engineer who I considered good often made a statement about theory running head on in to reality. This same guy who worked on our firewalls early on declared the only perfect firewall was a pair of dykes.

I see a lot of engineers hired here as protection or communications engineers. Most new engineers are totally overwhelmed, thinking that the BS or MS makes them know it all. They have no concept that what they learned is only a basis for what they need to know. A lot of them leave for jobs where they do math all day. Some actually try to learn what they need to know to do the job. Turnover is high.

Most of the useless ones need to be mentored. Told to learn the job or move on. Unfortunately that does not often happen in government service. They also need to be assigned actual tasks where they can see the physical results if they succeed and have their feet held to the fire if they don't. Again, mentoring is required for this.

I have also been told that engineers have hairy ears...

Back on topic, hammers, consolidation candles, all the up/down wicks? You don't expect me to do what I want young engineers to do and learn something about candles?

PO

 

[jkenjohnson]

JR and all contributors I appreciate your take on world view and the market.

I wanted to comment on the short discussion on engineers.

In my 15 years with my current agency and my 24 years in the military I have dealt with many engineers.

Good and bad.

Many of the bad were just bad, wrong career. Many of the bad were unwilling to learn the "nuts and bolts" of what they were hired for.

The good were willing to admit that school had not totally prepared them for the job they were in and learned about it. Some of those good were just bad at being engineers. Most of the good learned what they could about the current job and applied what they had learned in school to it.

One engineer who I considered good often made a statement about theory running head on in to reality. This same guy who worked on our firewalls early on declared the only perfect firewall was a pair of dykes.

I see a lot of engineers hired here as protection or communications engineers. Most new engineers are totally overwhelmed, thinking that the BS or MS makes them know it all. They have no concept that what they learned is only a basis for what they need to know. A lot of them leave for jobs where they do math all day. Some actually try to learn what they need to know to do the job. Turnover is high.

Most of the useless ones need to be mentored. Told to learn the job or move on. Unfortunately that does not often happen in government service. They also need to be assigned actual tasks where they can see the physical results if they succeed and have their feet held to the fire if they don't. Again, mentoring is required for this.

I have also been told that engineers have hairy ears...

Back on topic, hammers, consolidation candles, all the up/down wicks? You don't expect me to do what I want young engineers to do and learn something about candles?

PO

You sound like the typical frustrated "engineering technician".

 

[PessOptimist]

You sound like the typical frustrated "engineering technician".

Actually an electronic equipment craftsman. In the military days it was wideband radio technician. (radio relay early on).

I just thought i would comment since I have worked so closely with engineers my whole life. I really enjoy it when the new communications engineers want to get data from say Tucson to Cheyenne and start asking questions about "the cloud". They are always amazed at how many parts there are in the cloud. I am proud of my part of the cloud.

PO

 

[nasa1974]

Let me just say this about engineers. In my 38 years with NASA I have had the privilege to work with some very good engineers and unfortunately work with some very poor ones as well. The very good ones didn't look at us tech's as the lower part of the food chain. The bad ones did. I also knew some tech's that were as good if not better than most of the engineers I worked with.

 

[burrocrat]

Actually an electronic equipment craftsman. In the military days it was wideband radio technician. (radio relay early on).

I just thought i would comment View attachment 19541since I have worked so closely with engineers my whole life. I really enjoy it when the new communications engineers want to get data from say Tucson to Cheyenne and start asking questions about "the cloud". They are always amazed at how many parts there are in the cloud. I am proud of my part of the cloud.

PO

I'm proud of your part in the cloud too.

 

[Talan150]

My wife tells me that I walk around with my head in the cloud

 

[MrJohnRoss]

11 Brilliant Insights From Deceased Hedge Fund Manager Barton Briggs / Business Insider

Take these golden nuggets and appy them to your investment philosophy. Well worth the short read.

Here's a good one:

"Quantitatively based solutions and asset allocation equations invariably fail as they are designed to capture what would have worked in the previous cycle whereas the next one remains a riddle wrapped in an enigma."

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Here's a good one:
"Quantitatively based solutions and asset allocation equations invariably fail as they are designed to capture what would have worked in the previous cycle whereas the next one remains a riddle wrapped in an enigma."

...and this helps how?????? :suspicious:

 

[nnuut]

...and this helps how?????? :suspicious:

Send that to Burntankle and Geithner.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Looks like Mead Johnson (MJN) is coming closer to my buy point. Weakness in China has depressed the stock. If we break down to 72 tomorrow, we'd be below the lower BB and way below the 20 day EMA, and near the low for the year. Just what I like to see; a good stock at a good sale price. The price was 88.64 just a few weeks ago. That would almost be a 20 % discount. Let's hope the weakness continues another day or two...

 

[MaStA]

Thanks for the updates as always John. I'm always looking for a good buy Also has a decent dividend.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

New Timing System In Development

Been trying to think very carefully of a way to create a new timing system that takes advantage of price extremes of TNA/TZA.

As most of you know, those ETF's are used quite commonly for their triple leveraged power, both on the upside and the downside. The price swings can be incredible.

With that in mind, I may have stumbled upon something that seems that it can't possibly be true. Here's why...

So far, a study has been performed on the first 6 months of 2012. Here's what the data says...

Using this proposed "system", there were 15 trades; 12 wins and 3 losses, for a 80% success rate.

Average number of days per trade was 7.2 trading days.

Maximum drawdown was -5.7%

Maximum gain was 23.8%

From 1/1/2012 through 6/29/2012, $10,000 turned into $33,032.25.

Six month percent gain = 230.3%.

I'm worried that this cannot possibly be correct, and that it won't work in real time.

The plan is to now look back through three years of data (from 2009 through 2011), and see how it compares with the first 6 months of this year.

Then the real question will become... is this a realistic timing model, or just a great back-tested excercise?

This is all done without analyzing or interpreting any charts, and is based solely upon closing prices of TNA/TZA.

The data has been uploaded into a spreadsheet, and analysis is taking place when time is available.

I'll let everyone here at TSPTalk know of any future developments.

Wish us luck!

JR

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: New Timing System In Development

LUCK!!!!

 

[berline]

Re: New Timing System In Development

Well hello, please share. In my opinion, no system is going to be good forever. even if the system does not "backtest" very well, maybe something has changed within the market. Again, not every system will work for ever. If your system could make me 230% every 6 months, I'm in. I get it, and understand that's not realistic...But anything close to that success rate sounds awesome and I'm interested!! How much you charging or when are you going to start posting these signals for "our information"?

Been trying to think very carefully of a way to create a new timing system that takes advantage of price extremes of TNA/TZA.

As most of you know, those ETF's are used quite commonly for their triple leveraged power, both on the upside and the downside. The price swings can be incredible.

With that in mind, I may have stumbled upon something that seems that it can't possibly be true. Here's why...

So far, a study has been performed on the first 6 months of 2012. Here's what the data says...

Using this proposed "system", there were 15 trades; 12 wins and 3 losses, for a 80% success rate.

Average number of days per trade was 7.2 trading days.

Maximum drawdown was -5.7%

Maximum gain was 23.8%

From 1/1/2012 through 6/29/2012, $10,000 turned into $33,032.25.

Six month percent gain = 230.3%.

I'm worried that this cannot possibly be correct, and that it won't work in real time.

The plan is to now look back through three years of data (from 2009 through 2011), and see how it compares with the first 6 months of this year.

Then the real question will become... is this a realistic timing model, or just a great back-tested excercise?

This is all done without analyzing or interpreting any charts, and is based solely upon closing prices of TNA/TZA.

The data has been uploaded into a spreadsheet, and analysis is taking place when time is available.

I'll let everyone here at TSPTalk know of any future developments.

Wish us luck!

JR

 

[nnuut]

Re: New Timing System In Development

Best of luck John, if it really works keep it a secret except for me!:toung:

 

[bmneveu]

your system wouldnt happen to be short right now, would it? id like the reassurance :laugh:

 

[berline]

I'll second that question. My position is very short and I'd like to know if your numbers agree...Please.

your system wouldnt happen to be short right now, would it? id like the reassurance :laugh:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Currently long TNA, but don't judge your system against mine. Mine's just being born, and it has a long way to go before it's battle ready.

 

[MaStA]

John,

Have you been watching MJN still? I don't know if we will see the 72 point, but it still looks like it could be a good buy. Their earnings are coming out on the 26th as well. Last quarter they beat expectations, which I imagine should cause the stock to jump up a little bit if it happens again.