MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[polarbear]

It catches the gains but does not predict the falls (2010, 2011), so in that regard you are on your own. Unless that volatile activity in it 2-3 months in advance indicates something. See the squiggly blotch in early 2010 and the sharp dip around early spring 2011. As for 2012?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

It catches the gains but does not predict the falls (2010, 2011), so in that regard you are on your own. Unless that volatile activity in it 2-3 months in advance indicates something. See the squiggly blotch in early 2010 and the sharp dip around early spring 2011. As for 2012?

Agreed. Good long term indicator, and the correlation is very close, but the markets are much more volatile than the jobless claims index. If I had to guess about the rest of 2012, I'd say initial jobless claims are more likely to climb slightly higher. Since the y axis is inverted (higher jobless claims = lower red line), that would suggest a lower trending S&P 500.

 

[WhoDey]

The correlation is nice, but how does one predict Initial Jobless Claims?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The correlation is nice, but how does one predict Initial Jobless Claims?

My personal opinion is that the U.S. will not have any meaningful job creation for a long, long time. Our country no longer has a "real" manufacturing base, and our current politicians seem to think that big gubment is the answer to lower unemployment. Yeah. Worked real well in Greece, right?

Case in point: CA, which is a nearly bankrupt state, is getting ready to spend $68 BILLION on a train to nowhere, all in the name of "job creation". What a joke. No one will ride that train. And it will end up costing AT LEAST $100 BIL, IMO. Oh well, a few billion here, a few more billion there...

Meanwhile, across America, the universities and private schools are pumping out tens of thousands of new graduates every year, most who never find real meaningul employment. There just aren't any meaningful numbers of real jobs out there, so grads just settle for waiting tables, or whatever menial job they can find. Most are saddled with huge student loan debt when they graduate, and barely make enough to make ends meet. Welcome to the future of Amerika, kids. And certain politicians try to act "cool" to get the young vote. Sickening.

If you follow my logic, you'll understand why my long term guess is for higher unemployment, hence higher initial jobless claims.

I hope I'm wrong.

Perhaps you have a rosier scenario??

 

[nnuut]

I couldn't have said it better!

 

[Bquat]

My personal opinion is that the U.S. will not have any meaningful job creation for a long, long time. Our country no longer has a "real" manufacturing base, and our current politicians seem to think that big gubment is the answer to lower unemployment. Yeah. Worked real well in Greece, right?

Case in point: CA, which is a nearly bankrupt state, is getting ready to spend $68 BILLION on a train to nowhere, all in the name of "job creation". What a joke. No one will ride that train. And it will end up costing AT LEAST $100 BIL, IMO. Oh well, a few billion here, a few more billion there...

Meanwhile, across America, the universities and private schools are pumping out tens of thousands of new graduates every year, most who never find real meaningul employment. There just aren't any meaningful numbers of real jobs out there, so grads just settle for waiting tables, or whatever menial job they can find. Most are saddled with huge student loan debt when they graduate, and barely make enough to make ends meet. Welcome to the future of Amerika, kids. And certain politicians try to act "cool" to get the young vote. Sickening.

If you follow my logic, you'll understand why my long term guess is for higher unemployment, hence higher initial jobless claims.

I hope I'm wrong.

Perhaps you have a rosier scenario??

Here's a thought. The goverment should hire the best of these graduates at minimum wage, pay the interest on their student loan each month and use them as intercity teacher aides or full time tutors to bring up the education level across the U.S. until they find something better in the work force. Now that a stimulas package.

 

[Buffalo_Nickle]

I think you may be a little "Naive" , for many years and still today our government recruits these people regardless in most cases, but here at Cherry Point NC we have almost half of the work force with useless engineers from NC State..etc, and the Government does pay their student loans and promise GS13 in longevity. Get it now my freind? I would seriously doudt these folks working for 6 bucks an hr.

 

[Sensei]

Here's a thought. The goverment should hire the best of these graduates at minimum wage, pay the interest on their student loan each month and use them as intercity teacher aides or full time tutors to bring up the education level across the U.S. until they find something better in the work force. Now that a stimulas package.

There's an NPO called Teach for America that does something very similar (except the teachers earn a regular teacher's salary - which is a little better than minimum wage ). Here's a link if you're interested:

Teach For America | Home

There is also something called Troops to Teachers, I think, that helps people transition from the military to teaching careers.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I think you may be a little "Naive" , for many years and still today our government recruits these people regardless in most cases, but here at Cherry Point NC we have almost half of the work force with useless engineers from NC State..etc, and the Government does pay their student loans and promise GS13 in longevity. Get it now my freind? I would seriously doudt these folks working for 6 bucks an hr.

Being an NC State engineering grad (master's degree and licensed professional engineer in 3 states) I find your comment offensive. NC State has a highly ranked engineering program. I personally oversaw the design and construction of North America's longest cable stayed bridge (Cooper River Bridge in Charleston, SC). It was a $550,000,000 project. Sorry Tom, but I had to say something.

 

[nnuut]

Being an NC State engineering grad (master's degree and licensed professional engineer in 3 states) I find your comment offensive. NC State has a highly ranked engineering program. I personally oversaw the design and construction of North America's longest cable stayed bridge (Cooper River Bridge in Charleston, SC). It was a $550,000,000 project. Sorry Tom, but I had to say something.

"master's degree and licensed professional engineer in 3 states" You are the MAN!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Being an NC State engineering grad (master's degree and licensed professional engineer in 3 states) I find your comment offensive. NC State has a highly ranked engineering program. I personally oversaw the design and construction of North America's longest cable stayed bridge (Cooper River Bridge in Charleston, SC). It was a $550,000,000 project. Sorry Tom, but I had to say something.

Agreed. I also have a degree in engineering (though I didn't go through the masters program), and I'd have to say that very few dummies ever pass the rigorous course work. Definitely not for the feeble minded.

By the way, I'm also very impressed with your education and background. You're obviously a very bright young man! Well done!

JR

 

[Birchtree]

My liberal Jewish Lawyer has a son who works for Teach For America in New York City.

 

[Buffalo_Nickle]

Ooopps, my apology J Ken no slight to you or the Engineering institution. Its just no workload; meaningless taskand mediocre supervision is the rule for the day.

Being an NC State engineering grad (master's degree and licensed professional engineer in 3 states) I find your comment offensive. NC State has a highly ranked engineering program. I personally oversaw the design and construction of North America's longest cable stayed bridge (Cooper River Bridge in Charleston, SC). It was a $550,000,000 project. Sorry Tom, but I had to say something.

 

[Bquat]

I think you may be a little "Naive" , for many years and still today our government recruits these people regardless in most cases, but here at Cherry Point NC we have almost half of the work force with useless engineers from NC State..etc, and the Government does pay their student loans and promise GS13 in longevity. Get it now my freind? I would seriously doudt these folks working for 6 bucks an hr.

I may have to agree there my be some slow starters, but the goverment is in a bind. It has to pump up it's intern program and highering out of colleges to rebuild. Hopefully they can weed out those that can't adjust to the semi-military workstyle of the goverment programs. Even at Cherry Point you know the demand of field testing. The goverment has a bad PR going for them right now with pay freezes and cuts on retirement. They're looking at losing over 50% of the upper tier of personell to retirement and when the economy turns they won't have much to offer to seasoned engineers like what they could promise 30 years ago. Get all the grads they can and maybe the majority will stay and work out.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

My liberal Jewish Lawyer has a son who works for Teach For America in New York City.

Teach? Or Brainwash?

Daddy must be proud.

 

[Frixxxx]

...The goverment has a bad PR going for them right now with pay freezes and cuts on retirement. They're looking at losing over 50% of the upper tier of personell to retirement and when the economy turns they won't have much to offer to seasoned engineers like what they could promise 30 years ago. Get all the grads they can and maybe the majority will stay and work out.

I agree here, I am out in California, and the engineers are stuck/stagnant (not useless or dumb). I blame culture at this installation the most. But, I'm a second class citizen since I'm a Computer Scientist. I'm in the middle of applying for my Masters in Systems Engineering. I hope that buys some respect. I actually wrote code to do the prep work of 40 engineers here, but no love on implementation. I try to tell them that the math part is easy, the anaysis is the hard part, but it seems that it is totally acceptable to spend 20 hours a week "doing the math" rather than working the problem. Bad Culture! Bad! So when a kid comes in here and gets beat down doing the math rather than solving the problem, they get discouraged and leave. We have an attrition rate of 68% within the first three years.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's what I'm gonna keep my eye on tomorrow... This looks like a possible buy signal for Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) for my Roth IRA.

A bad news report out of China sent the stock reeling today. I think it will be a short term blip in the share price. This stock has done well for many years. It's gone way outside it's lower Bollinger Band, and could be due for a nice snap back rally in the next few days.

A move down below 72 might be a good buy point.





Good luck!

 

[nsurf9]

I'm not sure if that's a large consolidation candle with lower low and higher tops, or a huge upwards moving hammer. Judging by the volumn and break in the lower bollenger band, technically, it should be a bot.tom - but 'tuff to know with the larger index swings. On the other hand, everytime the stock has broken the 50 moving average, it has popped back up.

Current fall is result of as 8 percent on Tuesday after an influential Chinese business magazine reported that a prohibited additive was found in some of its (popular Enfamil) baby formulas in Hunan Province. Meaning a shelf recall and PR campain, if not exonerated fully by the Chinese government. Could be a good play tomorrow.

 

[jkenjohnson]

JR check this out. Mead Johnson gets apology from China agency: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks for the info jken and nsurf. I was hoping that the Chinese would keep a lid on things for a day or two, just to be sure, and the stock would suffer a selloff for a few days and hit my target of 72.

It was a good idea, but it just didn't pan out. I'll keep my cash in my pocket and wait for another opportunity to buy a good company on sale at another time. No sense in getting in a rush. I'll wait for the bargains....