MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Two year chart of AAPL. Looks like a bearish descending wedge.




For those looking to sell, the current rally might provide a good opportunity. The big test will be if 111 can be taken out in a convincing manner. If it can, the bearish wedge would be considered toast, and a new long term uptrend could be in the works. If it fails, look for a re-test of the 90 area.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Very little time to post tonight, so I'll be brief. WTIC plunged today 3.46%, which may have caught the market by surprise. Mr VIX rose in response, and the market was somewhat mixed to negative.

Composite system now reads -3, a solid sell signal.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Today was a "pop and drop" day for the markets. Popped higher at the open, luring in the suckers, then spent the rest of the day slowly grinding lower.




Seems a bit strange, because oil did just the opposite - dropped lower at the open, then spent the rest of the day moving higher, closing up 1.46%. Go figure.

In any event, the S&P was up 20 ticks, but still within the 2% range it's been in since mid July.

PM's and miners are looking weak. My guess is they're resting up for the next leg up.

Everyone's waiting to see what Yellen and Co have to say at Jackson Hole, so anything can happen with the markets. Say just the right thing, and boom, there it goes higher. Say something wrong, and you'll scare everyone away.

Composite system remains at -3. I may make an IFT to F Fund tomorrow, as AGG is looking like it's turning up.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

IFT COB today 8/24/16: 100% F Fund.

 

[GUCHI]

IFT COB today 8/24/16: 100% F Fund.[/QUOTE
Whaaaaaaaaaaaat..... Heehee

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Trouble in Paradise? Today sure was an ugly day for the markets.




We're still in the 2% range, but the shorter term charts are looking more troubling than the daily chart. Mr VIX was up over 8%, which might be a red flag.

The real story of the day was PM's and miners. JNUG down almost 24% today. Geez!




Anyone who is looking for some good ol' fashion volatility can find it here. Step right up folks, you might get a chance to catch this bad boy on the rebound.

Also, for those of you who may not be aware, Direxion is planning both reverse splits, and forward splits on nine leveraged ETF's (including JNUG) tomorrow. Link for more info here.

Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell signal.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The slow sell-off continues, and momentum continues to wane. Tomorrow may be a make or break day for the markets.

In the meantime, it looks like AAPL is going to fail the test of 111, as it begins to roll over.




Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell signal.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Nice pop today, but a slow drop in the last few hours. Regardless, it's 52 ticks higher, but still within the 2.0% band we've been in for over a month.




Apparently bad news (possible rate hike) is good news, but you never know, next time bad news might be bad news. Go figure.

AAPL continues it's descent, down another 11 ticks today. Oil also went lower, with WTIC just under $47.

Today's bump higher in the S&P slowed the descent of the oscillators I follow somewhat, but overall, they're still heading lower. My twitchy VIX system triggered a positive crossover, so we're now at -1, a sell/hold signal.

September is typically the worst performing month of the year for the markets, so maybe smart money is funneling out the door before we get a more serious pullback. We shall soon find out.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Today's drop took away half of yesterday's gain. Still floating around in twilight zone. The markets seem to be coiling for a big move. Which way is anyone's guess, but I'm thinking we'll get a pullback before we head any higher.

Since we're still within the 2% zone, I thought I'd share some charts other than the S&P.

One of the stocks doing exceptionally well is AMD.




AMD took off in Feb, and it hasn't looked back since. How much higher it can go is the big question. Price is above the 20 DMA, which is above the 50 DMA, which is above the 200 DMA. Can't get much stronger than that.

The elephant in the room continues to be AAPL:




Regardless of their tax liability, things have not been going well for AAPL for quite some time, which may not bode well for the markets. A golden cross just occurred, but I think it's all for naught. I don't own it, but if I did, I'd have sold it at the last PPO crossover.

Composite system remains at -1, a hold/sell signal.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Does this look like the beginning of a sell-off? Sure seems like it's a good possibility. The Nasdaq has been a big leader during this summer's run-up, but look at it now:




Okay, we've "only" fallen 62 points from the peak (-1.2%), but take a look at that big dome it's built. Now all it needs to do is finish building the right side of that dome. The PPO had a negative crossover a couple of weeks ago, and it's accelerating to the downside, which is not a good sign.

My guess is that we're going to the 50 DMA as the first test. Perhaps we'll get a bounce there. If not, there should be good support near the 200.

Tomorrow's job numbers may jack the market higher, but even if it does, I think it will be a temporary pop, and then we'll continue to slide lower.

Oil took another big hit today:




Sure looks to me like we're going to go down and re-test that $39 a barrel area again soon. The recent strength in the USD is helping to push commodities lower. Anyone looking to jump on board the JNUG train yet? I'm waiting for the right opportunity.

Composite system remains at -1, a hold/sell signal.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

One of the wackiest days for the market in quite some time. Plunged over 100 Dow points early in the day, then made a big comeback to break even for the day. This market can't decide which way it wants to go.

Oil is continuing it's big sell-off. WTIC is now at $43.16 a barrel. I think the $41 area might offer some support at the 200 DMA. That's still 5% lower from here.




Composite system is now at -3, a strong sell signal. Tomorrow will be interesting. We may see a lot more volatility, so buckle up.

Good luck!

 

[sniper]

Does this look like the beginning of a sell-off? Sure seems like it's a good possibility. The Nasdaq has been a big leader during this summer's run-up, but look at it now:


View attachment 39290

Look like a rounded top? or is that still too flat?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Hey Sniper, good question. Perhaps it's in the eye of the beholder, but that PPO sure is heading lower in a rounding fashion. As I stated previously, "Now all it needs to do is finish building the right side of that dome. The PPO had a negative crossover a couple of weeks ago, and it's accelerating to the downside, which is not a good sign. My guess is that we're going to the 50 DMA as the first test. Perhaps we'll get a bounce there. If not, there should be good support near the 200. Tomorrow's job numbers may jack the market higher, but even if it does, I think it will be a temporary pop, and then we'll continue to slide lower."

We'll see if that comes true next week.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Weekly view of the S&P:




The bubble on top of the bubble looks to be completing it's mini dome. My guess is September will bring more pain than gain, but who knows for sure. The Fed can always resort to "asset purchases" to float the market higher until the election is complete, and maybe continue to bankrupt our children's children to extend this "rainbows and lolipops" economy.

Market breadth continues to look impressive:




Upward momentum is waning somewhat, but that steep trajectory can't go on forever. Seven months of very strong advances - declines, and no sign of a topping process... yet.

Okay September, let's see what ya got.

Composite system is now at -1, a sell/hold.

Hope everyone has a good Labor Day holiday weekend!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Possible head and shoulders pattern developing on the S&P:




A significant break below the neckline could spell trouble for the markets, and a significant rally above the head would negate this pattern.

It'll be interesting to see how the market behaves over the next couple of days.

Composite system remains at -1, but a strong push higher over the next couple of days could produce a buy signal.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sam Stovall says historical data shows that the S&P is more likely to drop before it can pop.

"He notes that during all 20-day periods since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen an average price rise of 0.7%. But after going as few as 10 days without a one-day price drop of 1% or more, the market recorded an average fall over the next 20 days. If the streak of less-than-1% declines extends to 50 days, the index slipped an average 1.5% in the following 20 trading days and fell in price two out of every three times, he observed."

FYI: We're now at 49 days without a 1% price drop. Make it 50 if we don't drop today.

Does S&P 500 need to

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Mr Tran had a big day today, which is a positive sign for the market for those who follow the Dow Theory.




Mr Tran was up 105 points, or 1.3% on the day, with a big candle higher. The airlines were up big today, which added the juice necessary for the big gain.

Dow Theory, for those who may not know, is that both the Dow Industrials and Transports should move higher together to confirm a bull market. If one of them does not move higher, (usually the Transports), the theory is that the negative divergence could spell trouble for the markets.

The above graph shows candlesticks for Mr Tran, and the thick black line for the Industrials. As you can see, Mr Tran still has some catching up to do with the DJIA, but today's strong candle points it in the right direction.

Meanwhile, today's mixed market didn't move any of the oscillators I track, so the composite system remains at -1. The Nasdaq has had three days in a row higher, so it's looking the best of the main indices I watch. Keep your eye on it to see if it leads the rest of the market higher.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Coiling, coiling, coiling...




S&P is still within the 2% range since mid July. I think Sam Stovall is right about the market going south before heading higher. I just don't know what it's going to take to get that move lower. Black swan event?

With this being an election year, the Fed is likely to keep rates stable, at least until after the election. Maybe we'll just float along until then? (Highly doubtful).

Note the BB width at the bottom of the chart; a teeny 1.1. Can't get too much more narrow than that! BB width for bonds look very similar.

Composite system remains at -1, a hold/sell. I'll be keeping my eye on the Nasdaq and Mr Tran tomorrow to see if either of them lead the market higher... or lower.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Coiling, coiling, coiling...

Coiling like a hissing snake! Wow, that was a rough day for equities. S&P broke that 2% barrier in big fashion:




From best to worst, for comparison purposes:

Dow -2.13%
S&P -2.45%
Nasdaq -2.54%
R2K -3.11%
Mr Tran -3.15%
Utilites -3.76%

The VIX made a HUUUGE candle higher, up 40% on the day. Looks like volatility is back!

Sam Stovall was right, and the market played the odds as planned. The puzzling thing was there was no flight to the safety of bonds, as yields went much higher today. Go figure.

Now the question becomes... is this the start of a pullback, or a more serious correction? And all because of the Fed jawboning about a possible rate hike??? Gimme a break. The last time the Fed raised rates, the market went... higher! Go figure, again!

In any event, the composite system now stands at -3, a full sell signal.

I hope to get a chance to post some charts this weekend looking at the longer term perspective.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Just a quick look at the weekly view of the S&P, and a possible future scenario to keep in mind:




S&P lost 52 points on the week, and is short term oversold. On the 60 min chart, the S&P has a RSI under 16, which is very oversold. Although futures are pointing to a lower market tomorrow morning (Dow -111 points as of this post), I wouldn't be surprised to see buyers step in to take the market higher by closing.

David Larew has been talking about George Lindsay's "3 peaks and a domed house" pattern, which fits the above chart to a T. I expect a lot of choppy action in the days and weeks ahead, but the wouldn't be surprised to see a general trend that looks similar to the above chart.

If the market tanks over the next month or so, it could also have political implications, as the incumbent party could be considered to blame for the "poor economic conditions", ie, market correction. Could make for some interesting corollary developments. Buckle your seatbelts, it could be a wild ride!

Good luck!