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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I think you may be right Dutchy. You're not the only one watching the yen carry trade.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Just a consolidation, or is the market beginning to (gasp!) roll over?
Well, at the very least, we're consolidating. RSI is still high, but not red hot, so at least the engine isn't going to melt. If we have a pullback (and that's a big if), a logical support area would be the 2108 - 2120 area. Lots of support lines at previous resistance areas.
Options expirations are this Friday, so there may be increased volatility tomorrow and Friday. You certainly wouldn't know it by the VIX. It's barely above 13.
Oil continues it's waterfall lower, gold is taking a much needed break, as are bonds.
Composite system remains at +3, a strong buy.
Well, at the very least, we're consolidating. RSI is still high, but not red hot, so at least the engine isn't going to melt. If we have a pullback (and that's a big if), a logical support area would be the 2108 - 2120 area. Lots of support lines at previous resistance areas.
Options expirations are this Friday, so there may be increased volatility tomorrow and Friday. You certainly wouldn't know it by the VIX. It's barely above 13.
Oil continues it's waterfall lower, gold is taking a much needed break, as are bonds.
Composite system remains at +3, a strong buy.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Daily view of the S&P:
The 60 minute chart continues to be "overbought and climbing". The daily view is showing an unsustainable trajectory higher. All of the oscillators are printing bullish signs everywhere you look. RSI is climbing quickly, with a reading of almost 66. Rarely do we see the RSI go much over 70, so there may not be much fuel left in the tank.
Tom Bowley said it well... "Much of this rally has occurred at the opening bell with gaps higher, not with buying throughout the trading day. That reeks of manipulation as does the lighter than normal volume". He also noted that "many advances end with either an island reversal or an island cluster reversal. Keep an eye out for either of those".
Perhaps we'll see one more day of higher "manipulation" to close out the week, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback in the near future.
Be careful out there.
The 60 minute chart continues to be "overbought and climbing". The daily view is showing an unsustainable trajectory higher. All of the oscillators are printing bullish signs everywhere you look. RSI is climbing quickly, with a reading of almost 66. Rarely do we see the RSI go much over 70, so there may not be much fuel left in the tank.
Tom Bowley said it well... "Much of this rally has occurred at the opening bell with gaps higher, not with buying throughout the trading day. That reeks of manipulation as does the lighter than normal volume". He also noted that "many advances end with either an island reversal or an island cluster reversal. Keep an eye out for either of those".
Perhaps we'll see one more day of higher "manipulation" to close out the week, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback in the near future.
Be careful out there.
FogSailing
Well-known member
Agree that it appears we will probably see some pullback and consolidation until the next FOMC meeting which is July 27th. The caveat is that the Yen isn't devalued further. I understand from other sites that the BoJ, EU banks, and BoE are expected to further cut rates. That should push markets higher for a while longer. What an interesting summer.
FS
FS
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
All Time Highs - The Burning Platform
"... The market topped out in May of 2015 at 2,126. Since then, corporate profits have been in freefall, consumer spending has been in the toilet, GDP has been barely positive, and virtually every economic indicator has been falling. Valuations are now higher than at the 1929, 2000, and 2007 peaks..."
"... For all I know the stock market could continue to rip higher. Madness knows no bounds. The general public is not involved in this madness. They were wiped out twice in the space of eight years. Wall Street and their media mouthpieces have been unable to lure the average Joe back into the casino because the average Joe has been impoverished by Fed policies designed to benefit the .1%. The Wall Street lemming herd has gone mad, but I'm not sure they will recover their senses before they burn the entire demented financial system to the ground. But enjoy the all-time highs while they last".
"... The market topped out in May of 2015 at 2,126. Since then, corporate profits have been in freefall, consumer spending has been in the toilet, GDP has been barely positive, and virtually every economic indicator has been falling. Valuations are now higher than at the 1929, 2000, and 2007 peaks..."
"... For all I know the stock market could continue to rip higher. Madness knows no bounds. The general public is not involved in this madness. They were wiped out twice in the space of eight years. Wall Street and their media mouthpieces have been unable to lure the average Joe back into the casino because the average Joe has been impoverished by Fed policies designed to benefit the .1%. The Wall Street lemming herd has gone mad, but I'm not sure they will recover their senses before they burn the entire demented financial system to the ground. But enjoy the all-time highs while they last".
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Weekly view of the market:
Mr Market hit the launching pad immediately after Brexit, and hasn't looked back since. The nice, even, rounded dome has suddenly been pierced by a skyward rocketing stock market. Never mind that there's no logical reason for it, other than CB manipulation.
At this point, we're now outside the upper BB, which should bring caution to traders. RSI is high at 64, but it's been higher in the past, and still kept rising, so chew on that for a while.
My gut instincts after looking at the 60 min, daily, and weekly charts tell me that we're most likely due for a pullback next week, IMHO.
Good luck to everyone next week.
Mr Market hit the launching pad immediately after Brexit, and hasn't looked back since. The nice, even, rounded dome has suddenly been pierced by a skyward rocketing stock market. Never mind that there's no logical reason for it, other than CB manipulation.
At this point, we're now outside the upper BB, which should bring caution to traders. RSI is high at 64, but it's been higher in the past, and still kept rising, so chew on that for a while.
My gut instincts after looking at the 60 min, daily, and weekly charts tell me that we're most likely due for a pullback next week, IMHO.
Good luck to everyone next week.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Looks like momentum is waning.
Mostly flat the last two days. Someone needs to give the bull some Red Bull. Chief? Where are you?
Mike Burk said it well: "The major indices have been up 8% - 10% in the last 12 trading days. Central Banks have been using BREXIT as an excuse to flood their deteriorating economies with even more liquidity. All of the financial markets may be in a blow off. I cannot imagine how this can end well".
Mostly flat the last two days. Someone needs to give the bull some Red Bull. Chief? Where are you?
Mike Burk said it well: "The major indices have been up 8% - 10% in the last 12 trading days. Central Banks have been using BREXIT as an excuse to flood their deteriorating economies with even more liquidity. All of the financial markets may be in a blow off. I cannot imagine how this can end well".
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
A closer look (10 min) at the last few days shows that the market has been stuck in "the box".
Just not enough "umph" to go any higher at this point. With the PMO falling, and momentum waning, odds would suggest a pullback is on the way, IMHO. There are several obvious gaps that need to get filled in this chart.
Composite system remains at +3. So far, my mechanical composite system is doing much better than MJR, who has put emotion into his trading decision making. Lesson here: don't make the same mistakes I've made, learn from mine. It's easier than having to make them yourself.
Usually my VIX system is the first to signal a change in direction. So far, Mr VIX is behaving very quietly, sitting below 12 now. Won't take much to twitch him higher. We shall see...
Good luck!
Just not enough "umph" to go any higher at this point. With the PMO falling, and momentum waning, odds would suggest a pullback is on the way, IMHO. There are several obvious gaps that need to get filled in this chart.
Composite system remains at +3. So far, my mechanical composite system is doing much better than MJR, who has put emotion into his trading decision making. Lesson here: don't make the same mistakes I've made, learn from mine. It's easier than having to make them yourself.
Usually my VIX system is the first to signal a change in direction. So far, Mr VIX is behaving very quietly, sitting below 12 now. Won't take much to twitch him higher. We shall see...
Good luck!
jkenjohnson
Active member
Not anymore.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Out of the box to the upside. That area could provide strong support if/when we get a pullback.
MSFT helped the Dow and Nasdaq today. Earnings haven't been as bad as many analysts have expected, so there's some relief there.
What will be the catalyst tomorrow?
MSFT helped the Dow and Nasdaq today. Earnings haven't been as bad as many analysts have expected, so there's some relief there.
What will be the catalyst tomorrow?
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Looks like yesterday was a possible fake-out instead of a break-out.
We're now back in the box (support area). Note the PMO, which continues to trend lower. Sure looks like a topping process is taking shape.
Of course, with the banksters at the controls, you never know when they'll suddenly flood the market with buy orders, so keep that in mind.
The VIX system (finally) moved to a sell signal. That puts the composite system at +1, a mild buy (caution) signal.
Good luck!
We're now back in the box (support area). Note the PMO, which continues to trend lower. Sure looks like a topping process is taking shape.
Of course, with the banksters at the controls, you never know when they'll suddenly flood the market with buy orders, so keep that in mind.
The VIX system (finally) moved to a sell signal. That puts the composite system at +1, a mild buy (caution) signal.
Good luck!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Updated weekly view of the market:
The launching pad continues. There doesn't appear to be anything stopping this market from going higher. Banksters around the world are pumping as much as possible to keep their economies afloat. Don't fight the Fed? When it will all end is anyone's guess, but it's likely to get ugly. In the meantime, as the Cars sang; "Let the Good Times Roll".
Looking in our rear view mirror, we always have 20/20 vision. Here's what I said on 6/27, at the depths of the "Brexit" crisis: "We're now deeply oversold, with an RSI of 26 on the hourly short term chart, and it was even lower earlier today. I would expect a bounce soon, probably tomorrow, but dead cats don't bounce too far. I thought of going long tomorrow (on a very short term basis, like a day or two) to take advantage of a possible bounce, but it would be a total crapshoot. Nah."
Looking back, that would have been an ideal spot to jump on board, as we've now moved higher by over 9% from that low. The fear of the EU disintigrating held me back. Damned logic.
Remember the olden days, (just a couple of months ago), when the markets were tied to the price of oil? Not anymore. USO has fallen 16% since June 8. And the market? Up 2.6%.
So the credit bubble continues. Enjoy the ride.
Good luck next week!
The launching pad continues. There doesn't appear to be anything stopping this market from going higher. Banksters around the world are pumping as much as possible to keep their economies afloat. Don't fight the Fed? When it will all end is anyone's guess, but it's likely to get ugly. In the meantime, as the Cars sang; "Let the Good Times Roll".
Looking in our rear view mirror, we always have 20/20 vision. Here's what I said on 6/27, at the depths of the "Brexit" crisis: "We're now deeply oversold, with an RSI of 26 on the hourly short term chart, and it was even lower earlier today. I would expect a bounce soon, probably tomorrow, but dead cats don't bounce too far. I thought of going long tomorrow (on a very short term basis, like a day or two) to take advantage of a possible bounce, but it would be a total crapshoot. Nah."
Looking back, that would have been an ideal spot to jump on board, as we've now moved higher by over 9% from that low. The fear of the EU disintigrating held me back. Damned logic.
Remember the olden days, (just a couple of months ago), when the markets were tied to the price of oil? Not anymore. USO has fallen 16% since June 8. And the market? Up 2.6%.
So the credit bubble continues. Enjoy the ride.
Good luck next week!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Updated short term (10 min) chart of the S&P:
I've expanded the box to contain the consolidation period from July 14. We're now at a full eight trading days contained in this zone. So which way are we going to break out of the box, up or down?
My guess is down, and here's why...
Note that the PMO is continuing it's move lower. Also note that the two EMA's (60 and 180) are looking more and more like they're getting ready to cross, which would be short term bearish.
The Fed may have something to say about which way the market goes, so who really knows for sure.
On a side note, funny how yesterday I was just talking about oil not affecting the markets anymore, and lo and behold... today's drop was attributed mainly to the continued drop in oil prices. Go figure.
One last note: The percentage of stocks in the S&P with rising PMO's is now only 57%, and falling. Compare that with about 87% just two weeks ago.
Composite system remains at +1. Be careful out there.
I've expanded the box to contain the consolidation period from July 14. We're now at a full eight trading days contained in this zone. So which way are we going to break out of the box, up or down?
My guess is down, and here's why...
Note that the PMO is continuing it's move lower. Also note that the two EMA's (60 and 180) are looking more and more like they're getting ready to cross, which would be short term bearish.
The Fed may have something to say about which way the market goes, so who really knows for sure.
On a side note, funny how yesterday I was just talking about oil not affecting the markets anymore, and lo and behold... today's drop was attributed mainly to the continued drop in oil prices. Go figure.
One last note: The percentage of stocks in the S&P with rising PMO's is now only 57%, and falling. Compare that with about 87% just two weeks ago.
Composite system remains at +1. Be careful out there.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Daily view of the S&P:
With the market going sideways again today, it's interesting to note that the daily PPO is looking like a bearish crossover is about to occur in the very near future. It continues to appear that momentum is waning.
With that being said, AAPL reported better than expected earnings after the bell, even though quarterly profit fell 27%. AAPL should give a pop to the market, but then what? Maybe the Fed's "no interest rate hike" will cause the markets to soar?
Oil continues to slide lower. Dollar continues to look like it's strengthening, which is hurting commodities. DUST is coming alive. The basing pattern in DWTI is looking like big moves are in the works.
Composite system remains at +1. Just biding my time, waiting for the next cycle...
With the market going sideways again today, it's interesting to note that the daily PPO is looking like a bearish crossover is about to occur in the very near future. It continues to appear that momentum is waning.
With that being said, AAPL reported better than expected earnings after the bell, even though quarterly profit fell 27%. AAPL should give a pop to the market, but then what? Maybe the Fed's "no interest rate hike" will cause the markets to soar?
Oil continues to slide lower. Dollar continues to look like it's strengthening, which is hurting commodities. DUST is coming alive. The basing pattern in DWTI is looking like big moves are in the works.
Composite system remains at +1. Just biding my time, waiting for the next cycle...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
We're now 10 trading days in a row within "the box", which is roughly 20 S&P points from bottom to top.
AAPL gave a quick pop to the market at the open, but it soon fizzled. Then the Fed decision gave the market another pop, and it too fizzled. Tomorrow FB may give the market a pop. Will the market fizzle out again?
PMO system had a bearish crossover today, which puts the composite system at -1, a mild sell signal.
AAPL gave a quick pop to the market at the open, but it soon fizzled. Then the Fed decision gave the market another pop, and it too fizzled. Tomorrow FB may give the market a pop. Will the market fizzle out again?
PMO system had a bearish crossover today, which puts the composite system at -1, a mild sell signal.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The market continues to go nowhere. 11 days in a row in the box.
Mixed earnings seem to be yanking the market around. The continuing drop in oil prices seem to be keeping a lid on any market gains.
Tomorrow is the final trading day for the week, and the month. So far, the S&P is down -0.23% for the week, and up 3.39% for the month.
Composite system remains at -1, but is very close to going to a full sell signal. Let's see how we do tomorrow.
Mixed earnings seem to be yanking the market around. The continuing drop in oil prices seem to be keeping a lid on any market gains.
Tomorrow is the final trading day for the week, and the month. So far, the S&P is down -0.23% for the week, and up 3.39% for the month.
Composite system remains at -1, but is very close to going to a full sell signal. Let's see how we do tomorrow.
blueroadster
Member
Aways appreciate your updates. The CB has really caused the markets to act oddly as of late. The usual flat tops equal big drops has yet to happen. The 11 day flat top must be some sort of record. It has been range bound while volume has diminished during that time. Looking at the EFA fund PVO for example simply boggles my mind as to how strongly it has been heading south while price continues to remain in the box.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The market appears to be in one of two modes, either a topping process, or a consolidation before a move higher.
The short term chart (10 min) shows Friday's price action is beginning to look like it finally wants to break out of "the box" to the upside, which is positive. The negative is that it still closed within the box after failing to convincingly exceed that 2175 level.
And why did the market have a positive bias on Friday?? Oh yes, perhaps it was because the U.S. economy grew much less than predicted for the 2nd quarter, only 1.2% vs a 2.5% forecast. Wow, great news. Pop those stocks higher, will ya?
Never the less, the short term moving averages are showing a bullish move, and the short term PMO has also switched to a bullish position. All three of the main oscillators I watch are within a gnats ass of bullish/bearish positions (technically at -1), but it wouldn't take much to move them either way.
For the week, the S&P was down 0.07%, and for the month, up 3.56%.
According to Mike Burk, the S&P has historically been up 59% of the time in August, with an average gain of 0.6%. However, during the 4th year of the presidential cycle, the odds improve to 73% up, with an average gain of 3.0%. Something to chew on.
Best of luck to you this coming month!
The short term chart (10 min) shows Friday's price action is beginning to look like it finally wants to break out of "the box" to the upside, which is positive. The negative is that it still closed within the box after failing to convincingly exceed that 2175 level.
And why did the market have a positive bias on Friday?? Oh yes, perhaps it was because the U.S. economy grew much less than predicted for the 2nd quarter, only 1.2% vs a 2.5% forecast. Wow, great news. Pop those stocks higher, will ya?
Never the less, the short term moving averages are showing a bullish move, and the short term PMO has also switched to a bullish position. All three of the main oscillators I watch are within a gnats ass of bullish/bearish positions (technically at -1), but it wouldn't take much to move them either way.
For the week, the S&P was down 0.07%, and for the month, up 3.56%.
According to Mike Burk, the S&P has historically been up 59% of the time in August, with an average gain of 0.6%. However, during the 4th year of the presidential cycle, the odds improve to 73% up, with an average gain of 3.0%. Something to chew on.
Best of luck to you this coming month!
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