Khotso
Active member
Well that was uplifting. .... Yikes! Think I'll turn on Seinfeld or Andy of Mayberry.
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
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Well that was uplifting. .... Yikes! Think I'll turn on Seinfeld or Andy of Mayberry.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Another pop and drop day. The question now is, was that a "suckers rally" designed to get novice traders to buy in at the open, and then slowly suck the money out of their pockets all day long, or was that the start of a stronger trend higher?
This rally seems suspect to me, esp since we gave back half of the days gains by the EOD. Not a good sign. Perhaps the market is anticipating a Brexit "stay" vote, and is pricing it ahead of time. If so, we may not see as much of a rally on Friday if indeed that's the vote. Even though I took out my black arrows, I'm still of the opinion that we'll test 2025 before too long.
Short term oscillators went bullish at the open, but my main oscillators remain at -1, a hold short.
This rally seems suspect to me, esp since we gave back half of the days gains by the EOD. Not a good sign. Perhaps the market is anticipating a Brexit "stay" vote, and is pricing it ahead of time. If so, we may not see as much of a rally on Friday if indeed that's the vote. Even though I took out my black arrows, I'm still of the opinion that we'll test 2025 before too long.
Short term oscillators went bullish at the open, but my main oscillators remain at -1, a hold short.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Just a quick observation for the S&P:
Everyone's waiting to see what happens this Thursday. In the meantime, note the negative divergences between the price highs in the daily chart from April and June, where we had higher highs a few weeks ago. Note that the RSI and PPO had lower highs during that same time frame. Nothing is guaranteed, but it does show some softening in momentum oscillators. I think any future price highs would be short lived.
Also of note is how AGG (F Fund) has had three down days after reaching extremes on it's RSI reading. However, if Brexit materializes, AGG could skyrocket.
Composite system remains at -1, but a strong up day could trip it over to a +1 as the PMO system is close to the trigger line.
Everyone's waiting to see what happens this Thursday. In the meantime, note the negative divergences between the price highs in the daily chart from April and June, where we had higher highs a few weeks ago. Note that the RSI and PPO had lower highs during that same time frame. Nothing is guaranteed, but it does show some softening in momentum oscillators. I think any future price highs would be short lived.
Also of note is how AGG (F Fund) has had three down days after reaching extremes on it's RSI reading. However, if Brexit materializes, AGG could skyrocket.
Composite system remains at -1, but a strong up day could trip it over to a +1 as the PMO system is close to the trigger line.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
A small drop in the markets today, but Mr VIX sure did rocket higher. It was enough to send my VIX timing model into a sell mode. That makes my composite system reading a -3, a strong sell.
Hmmm... interesting, as market futures are higher tonight, so we may have a positive day tomorrow. Friday may be the day there are fireworks for the market.
Hmmm... interesting, as market futures are higher tonight, so we may have a positive day tomorrow. Friday may be the day there are fireworks for the market.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Don't look now, but the Dow futures are down 531 points and falling. S&P futures down 75 points. Nikkei futures down a whopping 1285 points. Why? Brexit may become a reality.
pmaloney
Member
Yahoo! Isn't that what Slim Pickens said waving his hat atom the descending A-bomb in Dr. Strangelove?
Hail to Britannia and sanity!
This might be a tough day financially but glad to pay up for a victory against Socialism and a hopeful evasion or delay of another 200 million lives.
Hopefully today will be a great buying opportunity, or the next week. What do you think?
Thanks for the good work and sharing that you do!
Hail to Britannia and sanity!
This might be a tough day financially but glad to pay up for a victory against Socialism and a hopeful evasion or delay of another 200 million lives.
Hopefully today will be a great buying opportunity, or the next week. What do you think?
Thanks for the good work and sharing that you do!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I think the odds are high that we see a great buying opportunity in the near future. Be careful, it could be a dead cat bounce though.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Everyone, including the markets, was shocked by the Brexit vote. Yesterday closed at the HOD, and it wasn't long after closing that the results starting coming in, and the futures started tanking.
The 60 min chart shows how the market went from overbought (RSI @ 70) to oversold (RSI @ 27) in one day. Amazing.
Yes, we're oversold, and we may have a bounce on Monday, but my guess is that any bounce would be of the dead cat variety. A test of 2025 is all but assured at this point, and we may blow right through it.
The daily chart shows today's candle slicing right through the 50 day. There's possible support at the 200 DMA, which is around 2020. Not very far, so I think it will be taken out as well.
A 50% Fib retracement from the Feb low to the June high would put another possible support around 1965, and a 62% retracement would put us at 1929. I think we'll be lucky if the slide stops there.
Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell, which is not a surprise.
The 60 min chart shows how the market went from overbought (RSI @ 70) to oversold (RSI @ 27) in one day. Amazing.
Yes, we're oversold, and we may have a bounce on Monday, but my guess is that any bounce would be of the dead cat variety. A test of 2025 is all but assured at this point, and we may blow right through it.
The daily chart shows today's candle slicing right through the 50 day. There's possible support at the 200 DMA, which is around 2020. Not very far, so I think it will be taken out as well.
A 50% Fib retracement from the Feb low to the June high would put another possible support around 1965, and a 62% retracement would put us at 1929. I think we'll be lucky if the slide stops there.
Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell, which is not a surprise.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The massive dome continues to form to the downside...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Mr Market cut through 2025 like a hot knife through butter.
The plunge protection team was activated when it dipped below 2000, and the 1990-2000 area became the battle line for the day.
We're now deeply oversold, with an RSI of 26 on the hourly short term chart, and it was even lower earlier today. I would expect a bounce soon, probably tomorrow, but dead cats don't bounce too far. I thought of going long tomorrow (on a very short term basis, like a day or two) to take advantage of a possible bounce, but it would be a total crapshoot. Nah.
The daily chart (below) reminds me of last August, and possibly like this January, when we went over the waterfall.
There's a lot of technical damage, and it won't be patched up in a day or two. This will take weeks of up and down moves (mostly down) before we know when an intermediate term bottom is in place. We blew right through the 200 day, and the next possible support is the 50% Fib retracement. Good luck with that. I'm guessing we at least test the 62% Fib, if not all the way back down near the February lows near 1810. We should find much more support there.
F Fund has been the place to be, but right now is too risky to buy in for my tastes. AGG had two days with gaps higher, and the RSI is now over 71. We're also pushing outside the upper Bollinger, so a cool down is in the cards, IMHO.
The strengthening dollar is holding back commodities, esp oil. WTIC just cut through it's 50 DMA, something it hasn't done since Feb. Look out below.
These sure are interesting times. I hope very few of you are losing money during this market rout.
Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell.
The plunge protection team was activated when it dipped below 2000, and the 1990-2000 area became the battle line for the day.
We're now deeply oversold, with an RSI of 26 on the hourly short term chart, and it was even lower earlier today. I would expect a bounce soon, probably tomorrow, but dead cats don't bounce too far. I thought of going long tomorrow (on a very short term basis, like a day or two) to take advantage of a possible bounce, but it would be a total crapshoot. Nah.
The daily chart (below) reminds me of last August, and possibly like this January, when we went over the waterfall.
There's a lot of technical damage, and it won't be patched up in a day or two. This will take weeks of up and down moves (mostly down) before we know when an intermediate term bottom is in place. We blew right through the 200 day, and the next possible support is the 50% Fib retracement. Good luck with that. I'm guessing we at least test the 62% Fib, if not all the way back down near the February lows near 1810. We should find much more support there.
F Fund has been the place to be, but right now is too risky to buy in for my tastes. AGG had two days with gaps higher, and the RSI is now over 71. We're also pushing outside the upper Bollinger, so a cool down is in the cards, IMHO.
The strengthening dollar is holding back commodities, esp oil. WTIC just cut through it's 50 DMA, something it hasn't done since Feb. Look out below.
These sure are interesting times. I hope very few of you are losing money during this market rout.
Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell.
MJR, allow me to use your thread to ask you and anyone else, now that the market is open, whether it is more likely than not to see this rally continue to end just before the 4th of July festivities? Tia. Best wishes to all!
Bquat
Well-known member
You may be right. Bottom of box support to bottom of box resistance::notrust:My vote is for a DCB to allay the rampant fear out there followed by more downward action to fleece the suckers who jump in thinking the worst is over.
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Whipsaw
Well-known member
My vote is for a DCB to allay the rampant fear out there followed by more downward action to fleece the suckers who jump in thinking the worst is over.
Cactus, I agree. The news was reporting the 'markets have stabilized' after the BREXIT vote... ; Back in Feb, at the second point in the double bottom, reports indicated another 10-15% down, at which point it rallied for about that much. So... yes, if reports say 'stabilized', I think there is more down side. :-/
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I would be very surprised if today's rally was anything more than a short term oversold bounce. IMHO, we should have more downside in the coming days and weeks.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Plunge protection team went to work again today. Their orders are to "keep that bubble afloat, and don't let it pop!"
So the short term (60 min) market picture has improved after two days of bloodletting. PPO and Stoch have relieved their oversold pressure, and the RSI is now centered at 49. Notice how we rallied up to the 2025 area and stopped for a few hours? I found that very interesting. Then just to show 'em who's boss, da boyz even punctuated it by going above it in the final two hours. I wouldn't be surprised to see another day or two of stabilization, as the big money boys need to window dress their portfolios to make 'em look real purdy for the end of the quarter. I'd be surprised to see this rally go above 2050. Previous support usually provides resistance.
The daily chart still looks bearish.
That's a mild bounce off of the 38% retracement level. Will it hold? I doubt it, but anything is possible. There seems to be less shock and fear about the breakup of the EU as the days go by, even though we all know it ain't gonna be pretty.
Banks, insurance companies, and brokers look like they've suffered the worst. The drop in interest rates is cutting out their profits.
Speaking of interest rates, the 10 year treasury is now down to 1.46%, it's lowest level in four years. I don't think it will be long before we're at all time low interest rates. ZIRP isn't out of the question at some point in the future.
Short term VIX oscillator had a bullish crossing today, as the VIX dropped 21%. That puts my composite system at -1, a mild sell signal.
So the short term (60 min) market picture has improved after two days of bloodletting. PPO and Stoch have relieved their oversold pressure, and the RSI is now centered at 49. Notice how we rallied up to the 2025 area and stopped for a few hours? I found that very interesting. Then just to show 'em who's boss, da boyz even punctuated it by going above it in the final two hours. I wouldn't be surprised to see another day or two of stabilization, as the big money boys need to window dress their portfolios to make 'em look real purdy for the end of the quarter. I'd be surprised to see this rally go above 2050. Previous support usually provides resistance.
The daily chart still looks bearish.
That's a mild bounce off of the 38% retracement level. Will it hold? I doubt it, but anything is possible. There seems to be less shock and fear about the breakup of the EU as the days go by, even though we all know it ain't gonna be pretty.
Banks, insurance companies, and brokers look like they've suffered the worst. The drop in interest rates is cutting out their profits.
Speaking of interest rates, the 10 year treasury is now down to 1.46%, it's lowest level in four years. I don't think it will be long before we're at all time low interest rates. ZIRP isn't out of the question at some point in the future.
Short term VIX oscillator had a bullish crossing today, as the VIX dropped 21%. That puts my composite system at -1, a mild sell signal.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
WS, it sure is surprising to see this much strength in the markets across the globe. Apparently the central bankers aren't gonna fool around to ensure that they "stabilize the markets at any cost".
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