MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The bear market rally appears to be fizzling out. Moving 100% to the G Fund at the close of business today.
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
Whipsaw
Well-known member
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Kicking myself for not going into the F Fund. Bonds may be overbought, but it looks like they might stay overbought and climb higher during this market downturn. 10 Year Treasuries down to 1.735% today.
Another interesting viewpoint is how the big high tech names (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, etc.), aka the FANG stocks have crashed. Was just looking at the chart of AMZN. It's down almost 30% from it's peak of 696 in late December. Today's close put it at 488. Talk about a haircut! Things are not going well when your big name stocks that were carrying the market are now crashing through the floor.
Another interesting viewpoint is how the big high tech names (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, etc.), aka the FANG stocks have crashed. Was just looking at the chart of AMZN. It's down almost 30% from it's peak of 696 in late December. Today's close put it at 488. Talk about a haircut! Things are not going well when your big name stocks that were carrying the market are now crashing through the floor.
Lakebound
Member
Just goes to show just how much everyone is sharing in the pain. A few articles that I have read say that folks will be lucky to gain 5%-7% in 2016.
Frank
Cactus
Well-known member
Look on the bright side -- you could still be in the C Fund.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The S&P PMO system remains on a sell signal.
Just did some studying of the VIX chart, and found some rather interesting technical correlations to short term market tops and bottoms. Current VIX signal is also on a sell.
My guess is we're on our way to another bottom in the markets in the near future, possibly as early as this Friday, since traders may be nervous holding long positions over the three day holiday weekend.
Since the August mini crash, down waves have averaged about 10 trading days, while up waves have lasted about 14 trading days. We're 7 trading days into the current down wave. Obviously 10 days is just a rough average, as the January swoon took much longer - 15 trading days. But it does give an idea of approximate cycle length for these waves to complete.
Best of luck!
Just did some studying of the VIX chart, and found some rather interesting technical correlations to short term market tops and bottoms. Current VIX signal is also on a sell.
My guess is we're on our way to another bottom in the markets in the near future, possibly as early as this Friday, since traders may be nervous holding long positions over the three day holiday weekend.
Since the August mini crash, down waves have averaged about 10 trading days, while up waves have lasted about 14 trading days. We're 7 trading days into the current down wave. Obviously 10 days is just a rough average, as the January swoon took much longer - 15 trading days. But it does give an idea of approximate cycle length for these waves to complete.
Best of luck!
userque
Well-known member
Several months ago, I and only one other mentioned that with the price line being removed from the chart, you have no way of knowing how well the signals correlate to actual prices. The response was that the price line cluttered the chart. The price line is the most important part of any chart.
I suspect the 'unknowing' falsely believe the crossovers also indicate the actual price levels of the underlying. Even so, if the masses like it; I love it. I decided to drop the matter unless someone else noticed the obvious. I'm amazed it took so long.
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
Yeah I remember. Some of the dates are listed under the chart on the page that the image comes from:
I'm personally not using it to make decisions. I think it is just a decent way of cutting up the previous trends of drawn-out bull and bear markets of several months/years. Unless that behavior continues, I wouldn't expect it to be very useful.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Interesting that both the S&P PMO system and VIX system produced buy signals on Friday. IMHO, I'm expecting only a short term bounce, and doubt that it will last the average 14 trading days. Sovereign wealth funds, mutual fund managers, and hedge fund managers (the elephants) will be looking to reduce exposure on these rallies. Can you imagine being in their shoes? What must it be like to try to sell thousands and thousands of shares of stock of hundreds of companies, all while trying NOT to drive the price down and tip your hat to everyone else? In times like these, I believe we little investors can be so much more nimble, and make much bigger profits than any of the elephants.
I think the elephants are just guessing. People like to think there is a formula to making money in the stock market. The market is not driven by facts or math it is driven by emotion. When the market going up and down like a roller coaster sit down, hold on tight, and enjoy the ride.:smile:
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Chart of the S&P: I see several reasons why we might pause in the 1950 area.
1) 50 DMA is near 1960, and dropping
2) Top of the Bollinger Band is at 1948
3) Previous Feb 1 high of 1947 may act as resistance
That being said, there is very strong momentum over the past three days, so we'll have to see how it plays out. A strong move above this area could mean that this rally may continue longer than expected. One of the keys will be the price of oil - so far we're in a trading range, but a move out of the range, either up or down, may tell us which way the market wants to go.
1) 50 DMA is near 1960, and dropping
2) Top of the Bollinger Band is at 1948
3) Previous Feb 1 high of 1947 may act as resistance
That being said, there is very strong momentum over the past three days, so we'll have to see how it plays out. A strong move above this area could mean that this rally may continue longer than expected. One of the keys will be the price of oil - so far we're in a trading range, but a move out of the range, either up or down, may tell us which way the market wants to go.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Updated chart of the S&P:
Overhead resistance hit right where we thought: prior high, BB, 50 DMA. The question now is will it continue higher, or bounce off of resistance and head lower? Sure looks to me like there are pockets of strength occurring in several sectors of the market, so my guess is Mr Market might pause here, but will eventually move higher. All of the timing systems I'm following have a "green" go light, although we could be getting short term overbought.
Good luck!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
1950 test of resistance failed for now. None of my timing systems changed posture, as they are all saying to stick to this bear market rally for now.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
PMO and PPO systems remain on a buy, just barely. The VIX system just triggered a sell signal today. Cumulative system: (+1+1-1) = +1, which is a weak buy signal. The fact that the S&P still can't break the 1950 level is not very positive. Unless it can go through that level convincingly, I'm guessing we're going to go back down and re-test the February lows in the 1810 area.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Updated chart of the S&P:
Nice big white candle today put us right at the resistance area. Many of the short term indicators are suggesting we may be overbought here. With only two trading days left in the month, I'm thinking we're going to get a pullback soon. There's something about turning the calendar that gives the market a different personality than the previous month.
For the month, we're up 0.59% so far, as measured by the S&P. Not much to write home about, but it could have been worse. Lots of wishful thinking that oil is going to stabilize has put the downtrend on hold. Unfortunately not much has changed for the better for the global economy. I still think we are going to have to contend with a continuing global economic slowdown, oil gluts, deflation, NIRP, and massive debts, but for now, the markets are toasting their champagne glasses to another up day.
No changes to any of my timing systems. We remain on a mild buy signal.
Good luck!
Nice big white candle today put us right at the resistance area. Many of the short term indicators are suggesting we may be overbought here. With only two trading days left in the month, I'm thinking we're going to get a pullback soon. There's something about turning the calendar that gives the market a different personality than the previous month.
For the month, we're up 0.59% so far, as measured by the S&P. Not much to write home about, but it could have been worse. Lots of wishful thinking that oil is going to stabilize has put the downtrend on hold. Unfortunately not much has changed for the better for the global economy. I still think we are going to have to contend with a continuing global economic slowdown, oil gluts, deflation, NIRP, and massive debts, but for now, the markets are toasting their champagne glasses to another up day.
No changes to any of my timing systems. We remain on a mild buy signal.
Good luck!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The S&P looks like it's going to fail it's test of the 1950 area. Momentum looks to be tapering off, and the RSI is heading lower. PMO system triggered a sell signal. Cumulative system: (-1+1-1) = -1, which is a weak sell signal.
What puzzles me is this chart of the high yield bond fund. Up today with a big candle, and actually moved outside the upper BB. If I understand correctly, all those junk bonds from the nearly bankrupt oil patch are suddenly easy money? Doesn't make sense to me, even if oil is nominally higher. There's something rotten in Denmark, IMHO.
pmaloney
Member
Agreed but the smell is dispersed now with all the campaigning right now. Also agreed that something wicked may be coming. There was a lady from Georgetown University on CNBC this afternoon who commented that Russia (and OPEC in my opinion) had "learned the trick" of saying that they were in talks about an agreement about oil and prices go up and now US Shale comes back and said they can be profitable at $40. This is a war! Hopefully not financed by HIY. :smile:
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Valkyrie
Well-known member
the stench has been growing since December 23, 1913
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