MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

I'm liking the action in the markets this morning. It won't be long before the "box" the S&P has been playing in since mid February is in the rear view mirror. I'm thinking that the market is finally going to make up it's mind and start heading a little bit higher, one tiny baby step at a time.

We got spoiled the last few years, when the market just shot up every day like a rocket. Those days are over, and the market is just gonna bounce around with a slight upward bias. Very hard to time this beast, unless you glue yourself to your monitor and watch every zig and zag.

The metals markets are about as dull as a lead weight. Not much up or down moves right now. I'm still almost completely in stocks, holding only a little cash, but I may deploy it in the next few days if I find a beaten down gem. Bought a little TNA last Thursday at 62.30 when it was oversold for a short term move higher. Waiting for a short term overbought signal.

Between the pressures at work, and even more pressures in my personal life (buying and selling homes), I've had very little time to post, and even less time to read other posts. My apologies for not being a part of the friendly banter in the last few weeks. This too shall pass.

Good luck to us!

JR

 

[CrabClaw]

I'm liking the action in the markets this morning. It won't be long before the "box" the S&P has been playing in since mid February is in the rear view mirror. I'm thinking that the market is finally going to make up it's mind and start heading a little bit higher, one tiny baby step at a time.

We got spoiled the last few years, when the market just shot up every day like a rocket. Those days are over, and the market is just gonna bounce around with a slight upward bias. Very hard to time this beast, unless you glue yourself to your monitor and watch every zig and zag.

The metals markets are about as dull as a lead weight. Not much up or down moves right now. I'm still almost completely in stocks, holding only a little cash, but I may deploy it in the next few days if I find a beaten down gem. Bought a little TNA last Thursday at 62.30 when it was oversold for a short term move higher. Waiting for a short term overbought signal.

Between the pressures at work, and even more pressures in my personal life (buying and selling homes), I've had very little time to post, and even less time to read other posts. My apologies for not being a part of the friendly banter in the last few weeks. This too shall pass.

Good luck to us!

JR

I'm in the middle of the whole buying and selling real estate as well. It is a pain, good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sold my TNA @ 65.69 for a +5.4% profit in two days. Bought a little TZA this morning @ 17.75 since it was oversold (on the 30-min chart). We'll see if we can squeak out a couple of percentage points.

The way I look at it, if I can make one percent a day, I'll make 260% a year. (One percent a day equals 5% a week. Multiply that times 52 weeks for your annualized percentage.) Of course, it's not always going to work in your favor, but I do think it's possible to make at least half that number if you play it right.

 

[ebbnflow]

Sold my TNA @ 65.69 for a +5.4% profit in two days. Bought a little TZA this morning @ 17.75 since it was oversold (on the 30-min chart). We'll see if we can squeak out a couple of percentage points.

The way I look at it, if I can make one percent a day, I'll make 260% a year. (One percent a day equals 5% a week. Multiply that times 52 weeks for your annualized percentage.) Of course, it's not always going to work in your favor, but I do think it's possible to make at least half that number if you play it right.

Going the wrong way, MrJohnRoss. That TZA must be a hedge against your S-fund allocation.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Going the wrong way, MrJohnRoss. That TZA must be a hedge against your S-fund allocation.

That's exactly the way I was looking at it too. The trade didn't look like it was going to work in my favor, so I dumped it @ 17.54 for a small loss of -1.2%.

 

[Birchtree]

I just thought I'd let you know that I got a 2/1 stock split on Trinity (TRN) due 6/19. It'll be a good purchase for the wife. I'm optimistic there will be more.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I just thought I'd let you know that I got a 2/1 stock split on Trinity (TRN) due 6/19. It'll be a good purchase for the wife. I'm optimistic there will be more.

Dang, that's a nice looking chart.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Aren't you a NUGT buyer? It is getting close to $32 again. That has been a support price for quite a while as it usually heads back up to $35-36. Thoughts?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Aren't you a NUGT buyer? It is getting close to $32 again. That has been a support price for quite a while as it usually heads back up to $35-36. Thoughts?

NUGT is looking very weak right now. Would want to see the RSI go down further, if possible, and then see the indicators (Stoch, PPO) heading higher before I'd jump in. It looks like it's just floating down right now.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The markets are looking stronger each day. S&P is leaving the box behind, and is near an all time high. The Nasdaq has just convincingly cut above the 50 DMA. Transports are at all time highs, and looking very strong. Mr. VIX is down below 12. Beaten down leaders are making big comebacks. If you're not in, you should consider getting there quickly. S Fund looks like it's turning the bend, and will start outperforming the C Fund, so that's where I'd be if I was looking to get in. Now if this choppiness can just ease up a little, we might have a smooth ascent into the summer months!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Chart of the S&P, which is looking very good here. Short term indicators are a bit overbought, so wouldn't be surprised to see a short term cool down, but it's finally breaking out of the box in a convincing fashion. S Fund is doing very well, as is the Nasdaq. Gonna hang tight onto my S Fund as it breaks out. I'm thinking we're going to see a summer rally.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

My Lucky Trade

Short story: Every once in a while, you get lucky.

Was looking for a short term opportunity, and noticed PLUG was showing a cold engine signal. PLUG is one of those volatile stocks that can move pretty fast in both the up and down direction. I decided to throw a good chunk at it, seeing as how the cold engine light is a fairly rare event. I put in my buy order at the market, and picked it up at 4.03. It promptly did nothing for the rest of the day except for drifting down ever so slightly.

The next morning, lady luck stepped in. Several positive reports came in on the entire industry, and PLUG shot up 5% almost immediately! Eureka! I watched the 30 minute chart closely throughout the day, and was tempted to sell every time I saw some weakness, but held on to see if it would reach my sell signal. In the afternoon, it made another strong move higher, reaching 11% above my buy price. At the same time, the hot engine light came on, and I knew it was time to consider taking my profits. Sure enough, the stock started to crater, and I hit the sell button. Walked away with a sell price of 4.41, and a profit of 9.4%. Not a bad one day trade. Just wish I could find these opportunities more often!

 

[JTH]

Re: My Lucky Trade

Short story: Every once in a while, you get lucky.

Was looking for a short term opportunity, and noticed PLUG was showing a cold engine signal. PLUG is one of those volatile stocks that can move pretty fast in both the up and down direction. I decided to throw a good chunk at it, seeing as how the cold engine light is a fairly rare event. I put in my buy order at the market, and picked it up at 4.03. It promptly did nothing for the rest of the day except for drifting down ever so slightly.

The next morning, lady luck stepped in. Several positive reports came in on the entire industry, and PLUG shot up 5% almost immediately! Eureka! I watched the 30 minute chart closely throughout the day, and was tempted to sell every time I saw some weakness, but held on to see if it would reach my sell signal. In the afternoon, it made another strong move higher, reaching 11% above my buy price. At the same time, the hot engine light came on, and I knew it was time to consider taking my profits. Sure enough, the stock started to crater, and I hit the sell button. Walked away with a sell price of 4.41, and a profit of 9.4%. Not a bad one day trade. Just wish I could find these opportunities more often!


View attachment 28802

That's an awesome trade, thanks for sharing. My ROTH IRA is going sideways/up but mostly I'm sitting on dead money. At this point I'm sidelined there until I'm ready to give it the attention it deserves.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Another excellent day for stocks. S&P is short term overbought, so I'm expecting a minor pullback next week. Going 50/50 G/F. I may also put in a buy order on some TZA later today. Long term, I'm still expecting the markets to charge higher.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Dang, it's been almost a month since I've posted here. To say I've been busy is a gross understatement. Been getting maybe 5 hours of sleep a night, working 9-10 hour days, then going to either one of my houses (I bought a fixer upper), and working another 3 or 4 hours a night while construction goes on. With no one at the wheel, my investments have been pretty much on auto-pilot, which is not a good thing.

Hoping most of you are enjoying this magic carpet ride. I'm going to remain cautious and not jump in until my system says it's time. If that means I miss a couple percent, so be it.

Happy 4th of July everyone!

God bless America.... we need it.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Well, I'm now the proud owner of two homes. I'm also the proud owner of two mortgages. *sigh*

The house we just bought is a vintage "fixer upper". We just gutted it. Hopefully we've reached the stage of construction where there is less "tear-out", and some "put-in". Meanwhile, the 'ol wallet is taking quite a blow. :blink:

Hope to get an offer soon on our home base. An all cash offer was made a couple of weeks ago, but the deal fell through. It was just not meant to be.

Meanwhile, I like to take a few minutes each weekend to look at the "big picture" of the markets. Found a good article that some of you may have already seen, but thought I'd share it here. We're not really in a bull market, folks: "It's Not as It Appears"

Still holding bonds and cash in the TSP account. A quick check of the AutoTracker shows I'm still in the hunt for a good end of year showing. Nipping on the heels of Chief Heisenburg the Permabull, so I'm liking my reduced risk position while some of the leaders hope for more gravy. I got out of the S Fund when $EMW was at 1030.36, which was a little early, but it's now at 1026.48, so I'm feeling good about my exit.

I'm about 50% in equities in my other accounts, but keeping a close eye on the exit doors. Also still holding a healthy position in metals and miners - their time to shine won't be long.

Good luck to us!

 

[GUCHI]

MJR congrats on your new addition of a second home. Just wanted to say my wife n I flipped a boarded up house and spent tons to get it ready for market in 2006. We ended up do n a lot of the work ourselves and saved some money and got the satisfaction of a job well done. Put house on market and could not sell in 2006 because of housing sales drop. Like you we had mortgage on house and was freaking out. We decided to rent as an option of not being able to sell. We took an offer that we thought was low ,but it paid the mortgage. We have had 2 single women tenants who were very dependable. This sat we turn it over to a family for our third tenant. Again we thought we could get more but it did not happen so we are getting the same rent for the house, again it pays the bill. I say this to give you a heads up on the rent option,something is better than you biting the bullet on your own. And ohhhhh I remember work n the fed job get n off work and going to the fixer upper for 3-4 more hours and every Friday off and weekends. We also had a handyman who could do just about anything at a very reasonable rate. May Sammy R.I.P he had become a very close friend in the whole flip deal, I miss him. Good luck and have fun. We advertised our rental on Craigslist and got some good prospects. See ya guchi

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Been pointing out to my office mates the divergences between the PPO and the steady climb of the S&P for weeks now, stating that eventually the markets were going to roll over. Was fortunate enough to enter a long position in TZA on Wednesday at 15.67, so I had a nice gain as a result of yesterday's bloodbath. Markets look like we're going over a waterfall, so strap your helmets on and get ready for some boulders on the way down. The only question is how far we go. Perhaps someone can tell us when the last 10% correction took place. That wouldn't be an unreasonable expectation.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's an interesting take on market cycles. This guy is expecting a major low to occur this month, possibly between 8/15/14 and 8/29/14. He's been pretty accurate.

"The next Flash Crash cycle is due Mid to late August Lows. 7 out of 10 Flash Crash 360 TD Cycles saw sharp 12-14% declines (3 of them were off or did not see any declines), mostly in 2-3 weeks some time in August 2014 Lows. Please note some were not "flashy", like the 3/12/03L and 8/13/04L, but were still major Lows. If the Flash Crash Cycle is active, we will see a swift 2-3 week, minimum 7% to average 12% decline most likely into the August major Lows."

Raj Times and Cycles

 

[Bquat]

Here's an interesting take on market cycles. This guy is expecting a major low to occur this month, possibly between 8/15/14 and 8/29/14. He's been pretty accurate.

"The next Flash Crash cycle is due Mid to late August Lows. 7 out of 10 Flash Crash 360 TD Cycles saw sharp 12-14% declines (3 of them were off or did not see any declines), mostly in 2-3 weeks some time in August 2014 Lows. Please note some were not "flashy", like the 3/12/03L and 8/13/04L, but were still major Lows. If the Flash Crash Cycle is active, we will see a swift 2-3 week, minimum 7% to average 12% decline most likely into the August major Lows."

Raj Times and Cycles

I would rather see that right now while we're out.