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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
NUGT/DUST system flirted with a switch to NUGT, but backed off at the end of the day. The system will continue to hold DUST.
However, keep an eye on the price of the PM's here. They're looking like they're wanting to move higher, which may bode well for NUGT.
Of note: The Ichimoku clouds are green for future prices of both gold and silver, and prices are in the sunshine (above the clouds).
However, keep an eye on the price of the PM's here. They're looking like they're wanting to move higher, which may bode well for NUGT.
Of note: The Ichimoku clouds are green for future prices of both gold and silver, and prices are in the sunshine (above the clouds).
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
NUGT/DUST System continues to hold DUST, but just barely. Price oscillations seem to be dampening, so we may be getting ready for a powerful move one way or the other. Looking at DUST, the 5 day, 20 day, and 50 day are all converging at this price point simultaneously, so I suspect there may be a clash to see which one is right (5 and 20 say up, 50 says down). It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
jkenjohnson
Active member
With options expiring today, I think it may drive the price of NUGT up preety good.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I made a mistake by not looking at the F Fund when I got out of my S and I Funds. I rarely look at the F Fund as an alternative, but it obviously has all the momentum right now. Although I won't get hurt in the G Fund, I could have been making at least a little bit of money while I'm out of the market. Lesson learned. Always look at all your options when making a switch.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Are u still holding dust? I made a quick 15% off of NUGT yesterday.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Without a doubt, it's had a record year.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Good job jken, 15% in one day is hard to beat!
The system is holding DUST, but we may be near a crossroad. We'll have to see how the rest of the day plays out. PM's are looking like they're heading higher so far today.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The NUGT/DUST system did not produce a switch today, so it still holds DUST, but just barely.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Take a look at NUGT on a weekly basis. I really don't see a lot of strength here. In fact, it looks like a test of the bottom is in short order. The RSI is in oversold territory, but NUGT has spent a lot of time in severely oversold RSI territory. It seems that the miners are still hated, and getting cheaper. This too will end, and it's only a matter of time until a solid upturn finally takes place. When it does, I believe there will be opportunities to make some incredible gains.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I posted this chart a few weeks ago, but here's an updated look at the rounded top that has formed when comparing the performance of the C Fund vs the I Fund. It should be obvious why I'm avoiding the C Fund right now.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Here's an updated look at the SPX:VIX ratio.
Again, it appears that when the ratio reaches it's upper BB, it often reverses course and heads back down to the lower BB. Then the cycle repeats.
It's not a perfect timing model, but it's something worth keeping your eye on. It often times shows when and where tops and bottoms may occur.
Again, it appears that when the ratio reaches it's upper BB, it often reverses course and heads back down to the lower BB. Then the cycle repeats.
It's not a perfect timing model, but it's something worth keeping your eye on. It often times shows when and where tops and bottoms may occur.
GEW
Member
Hello! Mr. JohnRoss,
NUGT has been on a downtrend, since inception, when equities are rising. DUST has been on the uptrend because of the favoring of equities. (Therefore, being against NUGT that is investing in gold/silver & gold/silver miners.)
How do you come to the assumption to accelerate towards NUGT and not DUST coming up towards the beginning of the year? Are you thinking that equities is getting ready for a down spin and NUGT would be the better choice on the short term? Considering long, would't DUST be the better choice?
Being in NUGT seems more riskier than DUST at any given time, however; can be rewarding on the very short term. I actually feel safer in DUST than NUGT. Other words, if your in too long with NUGT (against equities and remaining on a downtrend) it's difficult to get above water. This is why I like DUST more! Going "Long" for equities would mean DUST is the better choice between the two and safer. Do you agree! By looking in the past history for NUGT and DUST, the time frame is not favoring NUGT (unless your "short playing").
Respectively, just asking what you think...
NUGT has been on a downtrend, since inception, when equities are rising. DUST has been on the uptrend because of the favoring of equities. (Therefore, being against NUGT that is investing in gold/silver & gold/silver miners.)
How do you come to the assumption to accelerate towards NUGT and not DUST coming up towards the beginning of the year? Are you thinking that equities is getting ready for a down spin and NUGT would be the better choice on the short term? Considering long, would't DUST be the better choice?
Being in NUGT seems more riskier than DUST at any given time, however; can be rewarding on the very short term. I actually feel safer in DUST than NUGT. Other words, if your in too long with NUGT (against equities and remaining on a downtrend) it's difficult to get above water. This is why I like DUST more! Going "Long" for equities would mean DUST is the better choice between the two and safer. Do you agree! By looking in the past history for NUGT and DUST, the time frame is not favoring NUGT (unless your "short playing").
Respectively, just asking what you think...
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
Hmm very interesting chart. But at first glance it seems like the S&P tells you more of where the SPX:VIX is going than the other way around.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The NUGT/DUST system does not directly take into account how equities are doing. It simply looks at the two funds and selects the one with the highest current momentum.
However, it is possible that strong money flowing toward equities in a rising market may cause money to move away from the metals market, which could cause NUGT to fall, and DUST to rise. It would be a good exercise to see if there is a direct correlation to substantiate that theory.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I guess it's a matter of perspective. I use the ratio chart to help me determine when we may be near a top or bottom. Right now, the ratio is nearing the bottom BB, so we may see a bottom soon, although it can hug that bottom band for quite a while before turning back up. It will be interesting to see if it follows my timing band estimate of Oct 17 for a bottom.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
No changes to the NUGT/DUST system - still holding DUST. NUGT remains in a mild downtrend. I think a significant base is being formed here, although we could see a re-test of the June lows around 45.50.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Rather shocked to see SRTY (and TZA) both closed DOWN today! With the DOW down -128, both started up strongly this morning, but the R2K really clawed it's way back to even for the day. Impressive.
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