MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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Have been doing some selective buying in the last week in my 401k:

APFC
BIB
CNIT
HIMX

I'm now back to being fully invested.
 
Gold and Silver getting smashed today. I think this was needed. Quit playing around and get it over with. Shut all the mines down, because it costs more to produce than it's currently worth. Wash it all out, then let's repeat the cycle.
 
The NUGT/DUST system is having another good day today, up another 7% so far this morning. Currently looking at a doji, so we could be at a turning point.
 
With a few minutes to go until close, the NUGT/DUST system continues to hold DUST. Caution: looks like a hanging man is forming here.

I had to look back at when the last switch occured. It was on 9/20, when DUST closed at 31.86. So DUST is up about +12% during this little run (so far). Nothing to sneeze at.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
With a few minutes to go until close, the NUGT/DUST system continues to hold DUST. Caution: looks like a hanging man is forming here.

I had to look back at when the last switch occured. It was on 9/20, when DUST closed at 31.86. So DUST is up about +12% during this little run (so far). Nothing to sneeze at.
Click to expand...

Look at NUGT. I have been buying it around $46 and it runs up to $50-$51 (sometimes in the same day) and I sell it for a quick $5/share profit. Wait for it to drop to $46 again and start all over again. I have done this 3 times in the last 2 weeks.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Look at NUGT. I have been buying it around $46 and it runs up to $50-$51 (sometimes in the same day) and I sell it for a quick $5/share profit. Wait for it to drop to $46 again and start all over again. I have done this 3 times in the last 2 weeks.
Click to expand...

Sounds easy, but it doesn't always work out that way. If you bought today at $46, you'd be losing money. Currently, the strength is in DUST, not NUGT.


NUGT.png
 
The market doesn't seem to give a flip about the gub'ment shutdown. How do you think the market is going to react when they (finally) reach a deal?? (Yes, eventually they will.)

I see a perfect storm, a trifecta. This should be a recipe for the stock market afterburners to kick in...

1) Gub'ment back to work
2) Uncle Ben pumping $85B a month into the system with QE infinity.
3) Nov is the beginning of the annual "year end rally".

I'm feeling just a wee bit like BT, ready for some bull tinky. *snort*

Just be ready because eventually this artificial bubble is going to pop some day.
 
Take a look at the SPX/VIX ratio below. Once again, we saw the ratio hitting the lower BB on Thursday, and the market bounced up off of it. This could be a sign that the markets are forming a bottom here. The only thing that concerns me is that the S&P has only corrected about -3.5% from it's high on Sept 19. That's not much, but it may be enough to wring out some excesses and start a new leg up. What I've noticed is that many of the small and mid cap "hot stocks" that I track have continued to make higher highs week after week, so we're definitely in a "market of stocks" where there is money to be made even during this downturn in the major averages, especially in the mid and small cap sectors.



spx vix.png
 
Another graph I like to keep my eye on is the relative strength of the C, S, and I Funds against each other. Here's a one year graph of the S Fund vs the C Fund. (When S outperforms C, the line heads higher.) It's pretty easy to see that S has been outperforming C over the past year. The period from April through June was basically flat, which meant that both the S and C Funds performed about the same. Once again, this shows that during this bull market, the small and mid cap stocks are where the bulk of the money is flowing. This won't always be the case, so it pays to keep your eye on this ratio to see if/when the tides start turning in the other direction.


emw spx.png
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Another graph I like to keep my eye on is the relative strength of the C, S, and I Funds against each other. Here's a one year graph of the S Fund vs the C Fund. (When S outperforms C, the line heads higher.) It's pretty easy to see that S has been outperforming C over the past year. The period from April through June was basically flat, which meant that both the S and C Funds performed about the same. Once again, this shows that during this bull market, the small and mid cap stocks are where the bulk of the money is flowing. This won't always be the case, so it pays to keep your eye on this ratio to see if/when the tides start turning in the other direction.


View attachment 25469
Click to expand...

Any chance you'll enter the market this week or are u waiting for the Govt crap to pass?
 
Looks like the NUGT/DUST system is going to generate a switch to NUGT at the close, but it's a very slight signal. For those of you following this system, you may want to only dip your toes in the water.
 
For those of you who follow TNA/TZA, my models are indicating a change in trend to the negative (TZA). I prefer to use SRTY instead of TZA, but to each his own. Long SRTY at 14.60.

NOTE: Use caution when betting against a market that is trending higher, like this year. These countertrend rallies are often misleading and short lived. This will most likely be a short term trade.
 
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